jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 - Page 5

**j-rodd123** · 03-27-2013, 06:52 PM

Yea what kraut said, if a wolf doesn't kill the vigi that would be a pretty stupid move

cedolad · 03-27-2013, 06:58 PM

it's n2. it doesn't really matter if the wolf hits him or not. If he dies when he sends his kill then that's two kills. If he dies and doesn't send out his kill that's one kill.

Think of it this way:

Vigi comes out, we all make an informed decision, vigi kills, wolf kills. Wolf dead game over.

Vigi comes out, figures he is targeted by wolf, doesn't kill, and the wolf targets him. Only one human dead. Wolving was pointless.

Vigi doesn't come out, doesn't make an informed decision, vigi kills, wolf kills. More than likely two humans are dead.

Any scenario I'm missing here?

**BOSS_pjpaveloffga** · 03-27-2013, 07:00 PM

I retract my former statments due to being wrong

cedolad · 03-27-2013, 07:01 PM

oh yeah

Vigi comes out, we don't say shit, vigi randomly kills, wolf kills, two dead humans.

Krauthammer · 03-27-2013, 07:01 PM

Also!

I would like to point that not using the Vigi would not be good.

Yeah, it has much bigger chances of eliminating a human, which is a step closer for the wolf to win. BUT...

It also means one suspect least for everybody to take into consideration, narrowing even more the field. Which is also one step closer for us to win.

Vigi, my personal suggestion is that you stay hidden and kill whoever you think is a wolf. That is it.

cedolad · 03-27-2013, 07:05 PM

Also retracting my statements about the vigi coming out.

Realized that using the Vigi and the Wolf to get two kills n2 would be more beneficial then trying to get the wolf off the bat. Definitely easier to spot a wolf after there's only 8 players.

**BOSS_pjpaveloffga** · 03-27-2013, 07:09 PM

also is it possible that zoshi was vigi and came out to wolf? odds are slim I guess

Krauthammer · 03-27-2013, 07:09 PM

Well, there is always the chance of Zoshi being the Vigi.

But we aren't going to know until Night 2 is gone. After that happens, the best we can do is suppose the Vigi is dead.

**j-rodd123** · 03-27-2013, 07:17 PM

safety on [vote]bynary[/vote] so i can talk to some nignogs

**j-rodd123** · 03-27-2013, 07:17 PM

oops bynary

**BOSS_pjpaveloffga** · 03-27-2013, 07:20 PM

Bynary, earlier today you led the charge on vigi coming out. I'm a new player and didn't see all sides of it.
you have played quite a few games as far as I know. Why didn't you see why vigi shouldn't come out like the other experienced players?

trying to sway newer players such as myself and cedo to get the vigi to come out while staying under the radar? response appreciated

**BOSS_pjpaveloffga** · 03-27-2013, 07:21 PM

ps not starting a bandwagon. I had that written up but was talking to a few
people before I posted it.

cedolad · 03-27-2013, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOSS_pjpaveloffga

Bynary, earlier today you led the charge on vigi coming out. I'm a new player and didn't see all sides of it.
you have played quite a few games as far as I know. Why didn't you see why vigi shouldn't come out like the other experienced players?

trying to sway newer players such as myself and cedo to get the vigi to come out while staying under the radar? response appreciated

This pretty much. Bynary until he clears something up.

**Bynary Fission** · 03-27-2013, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOSS_pjpaveloffga

Bynary, earlier today you led the charge on vigi coming out. I'm a new player and didn't see all sides of it.
you have played quite a few games as far as I know. Why didn't you see why vigi shouldn't come out like the other experienced players?

trying to sway newer players such as myself and cedo to get the vigi to come out while staying under the radar? response appreciated

I'm not really that experienced - last game was my first in almost five years. I didn't take a stance on the issue so much - I was talking to travman about it and he leaned more towards having him not come out. I stated an opposing view - if the vigi came out, the wolf would be liable to kill him and possibly nullify his kill (have to ask Gun about that, but I think it works that way). Since the vigi will almost certainly kill a human his death will most likely spare us losing another team member. It's a simple matter of math. (see below). I wasn't quite swaying you guys to have him come out - I was stating that it might be advantageous to do so, but of course that relies on my aforementioned scenario occurring. As the others have mentioned, the vigi will almost certainly kill a human.

-----
To demonstrate my point:

There are ten of us remaining. There is one wolf, and nine humans (including the vigi). Obviously, the vigi won't kill himself. Then, subtract the case of the one person who has the guard item (assuming they use it), and that leaves eight total potential victims (7 human, 1 wolf). For this analysis I assume a human has the guard item and chooses to use it. I don't know if the guard item protects against vigi kills, but for this analysis let's assume it does.

Now, if the vigi selects one person at random there is a 7/8 (87.5%) chance that they will hit a human, and a miniscule 1/8 chance they hit the wolf. I don't like those odds. If the vigi chooses not to send a kill, then he will sacrifice himself, but in doing so he will almost certainly spare a human in the process. That is what I was getting at - of all the potential scenarios the odds of receiving a favorable one are overwhelmingly against us.

**Bynary Fission** · 03-27-2013, 07:40 PM

Sorry, I meant to say 1/9 chance to hit the wolf, and a 7/9 chance to hit an unguarded human. I forgot to account for a person being guarded when hit.

**j-rodd123** · 03-27-2013, 07:42 PM

Ummm no?? The vigi should definitely use their kill. If they hit a wolf they win the game, if not then we get a confirmed human when the vigi comes out the next day. If they don't send in a vigi kill then they die along with another human, and we get no confirmed humans, so really there is no logic in not sending in a vigi kill.

Sage of the Forest · 03-27-2013, 07:59 PM

Do not lynch me! I'm only making funny posts to make up for the way I went MIA last game, I felt bad about that. Bynary, as he tried to get me lynched, and there really aren't any people more suspicious.

Sage of the Forest · 03-27-2013, 08:00 PM

Also, Zoshi is a friend of mine from a Super Mario forum. That's how I know him.

**Bynary Fission** · 03-27-2013, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sage of the Forest

Do not lynch me! I'm only making funny posts to make up for the way I went MIA last game, I felt bad about that. Bynary, as he tried to get me lynched, and there really aren't any people more suspicious.

...What? When did I try to get you lynched? I was defending you - why do you think I haven't posted to lynch you? See these AIM conversations as examples:

Sage of the Forest · 03-27-2013, 08:26 PM

Oh, sorry! I got you mixed up with Manti. -_-,

I'm sticking with you, though, because other people have made a good case against you.

03-27-2013, 06:58 PM	#82
cedolad moonchild~ Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: . Age: 32 Posts: 6,879	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 it's n2. it doesn't really matter if the wolf hits him or not. If he dies when he sends his kill then that's two kills. If he dies and doesn't send out his kill that's one kill. Think of it this way: Vigi comes out, we all make an informed decision, vigi kills, wolf kills. Wolf dead game over. Vigi comes out, figures he is targeted by wolf, doesn't kill, and the wolf targets him. Only one human dead. Wolving was pointless. Vigi doesn't come out, doesn't make an informed decision, vigi kills, wolf kills. More than likely two humans are dead. Any scenario I'm missing here? __________________

03-27-2013, 07:01 PM	#84
cedolad moonchild~ Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: . Age: 32 Posts: 6,879	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 oh yeah Vigi comes out, we don't say shit, vigi randomly kills, wolf kills, two dead humans. __________________

03-27-2013, 07:01 PM	#85
Krauthammer FFR Player Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 362	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Also! I would like to point that not using the Vigi would not be good. Yeah, it has much bigger chances of eliminating a human, which is a step closer for the wolf to win. BUT... It also means one suspect least for everybody to take into consideration, narrowing even more the field. Which is also one step closer for us to win. Vigi, my personal suggestion is that you stay hidden and kill whoever you think is a wolf. That is it.

03-27-2013, 07:05 PM	#86
cedolad moonchild~ Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: . Age: 32 Posts: 6,879	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Also retracting my statements about the vigi coming out. Realized that using the Vigi and the Wolf to get two kills n2 would be more beneficial then trying to get the wolf off the bat. Definitely easier to spot a wolf after there's only 8 players. __________________

03-27-2013, 07:09 PM	#88
Krauthammer FFR Player Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 362	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Well, there is always the chance of Zoshi being the Vigi. But we aren't going to know until Night 2 is gone. After that happens, the best we can do is suppose the Vigi is dead.

03-27-2013, 07:40 PM	#95
Bynary Fission Retired One-Hander Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Seattle, Washington Age: 32 Posts: 2,435	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Sorry, I meant to say 1/9 chance to hit the wolf, and a 7/9 chance to hit an unguarded human. I forgot to account for a person being guarded when hit. __________________ Newest Track (12/26/2025): Battle Theme - The Celestial Caverns [8-bit Chiptune] https://soundcloud.com/bynary-fission/zone-3-battle-theme-tower-of-the-immortals-ost

03-27-2013, 07:59 PM	#97
Sage of the Forest FFR Player Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 94	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Do not lynch me! I'm only making funny posts to make up for the way I went MIA last game, I felt bad about that. Bynary, as he tried to get me lynched, and there really aren't any people more suspicious.

03-27-2013, 08:00 PM	#98
Sage of the Forest FFR Player Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 94	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Also, Zoshi is a friend of mine from a Super Mario forum. That's how I know him.

03-27-2013, 08:26 PM	#100
Sage of the Forest FFR Player Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 94	Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10 Oh, sorry! I got you mixed up with Manti. -_-, I'm sticking with you, though, because other people have made a good case against you.

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