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#11 | |
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FFR Simfile Author
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Quote:
You're going to have to get it all in a ton to win this tourney, and even if you're shoving the nuts every time, you're almost never more than an 80% favorite to win. Let's say you only get it all in pre or on the flop while covered 10 times in the whole tourney, and every time you have them dominated (80%). The probability of you remaining by the end is only 11%. In reality, you're going to have to dodge way more bullets than that too (By 20 dominated all-ins, you're down to only 1% chance of still being there). It's pretty pointless. Just deposit a few dollars from your bank account and stop wasting your time. With regards to earlier: there was a 3 man pot. gazeebo went all in I think, you called and I re-raised you. You call. Or something like that. There was over 300 in the pot by the flop. My 3 bet range here is pretty small and consists of only massive hands. Since gazeebo was already all in, there's almost no value at all to re-raising you unless I have a huge hand. Most strong hands here get a call, not a raise. You should be folding most of your range here to my raise, because you're almost never ahead of my raising range. As such, when the flop comes off like, 4A8 or whatever the flop was, you should never bet an 8. It's a profound mistake and you'll lose a ton of money taking this line. Again, since gazeebo is all in, you can only win my money. Pushing me out of the pot here won't win you any more money. Of course, it'll effectively mean I'm not in the pot, but that's irrelevant. An 8 is probably not ahead of gazeebos range either, meaning you're still going to lose the pot most of the time. Think about what hands I'm re-raising you with pre-flop here and how many of them have an ace in them. Most of them do. As such, I'm almost never folding when you make that bet, so you're left to completely hang yourself on the rest of the streets and or have no showdown value. verdict: with gazeebo already all in on that flop with an 8, check back. I'm probably going to check down, even if I have you crushed. If you really truly believe your 8 is good, than you should also be checking down. In reality you should fold pre in that spot though.
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Last edited by Reach; 02-21-2011 at 06:40 PM.. |
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