TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

This is what I'm saying

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Oh sorry was distracted and sat on my post, now I'm majorly ninja'd

But yeeeeaaaahhhh I think we can all agree that blues holding on to powers too long is bad for town. I don't even know if I wanna wait for a flip tbh

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I appreciate your exclamation marks hype as well!!!!!



(Light townread here in general, also I'll be out for a bunch of today; will be back a few hours before EoD though!!!!)

Also what is your avatar? It reminds me of Mameshiba wearing a sheet lol

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Also congrats on getting engaged!!!!!!!

Thankya Thankya. Tentatively set for October 3rd, 2026

Any FFR peeps that show up get a plate. We still gotta decide on a venue, though

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

October 3rd

nice

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

nice

Her reason is that it's the anniversary on when we officially became an item

But yes, I'm also extremely pleased how it turned it lmao

We still need to announce it officially but I wanted to at least nail down the venue first

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Game Related: had a literal shower thought (as in, was thinking in the shower) that I can go into next phase but I absolutely see the other side of the coin that Roundbox was talking about in regards to voting

Yeah, no excuses for not having a vote by EOD. none

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I literally made Lanna drive on this trip so I could respond to you guys here and no one has posted since me. Really cool of you to do

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Looking back over page 1, if Leetic is wolf then he's one hell of a confident wolf. This doesn't read like a wolf trying to just talk and appear towny, this reads like a town who's had too much time to think about the setup and fully believes they know The Strat

I don't think I ever vote Leetic here. Some strong players could pull this play off and Leetic certainly qualifies as a strong player, but i just don't think I'm seeing that here

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

That was a much quicker reread then I figured lol

To me, if there is an active wolf here I would bet it's Ara because it definitely feels like they engaged in the mechanics talk only because it would have been weird not to, and when it became safe to not address they dropped it pretty quickly.

It's reactive, is essentially my complaint

Even the reads list later on comes after we shifted to posting soft reads

Granted we have yet to really hear from Bug or HnH and to be fair, historically speaking on FFR the inactives are the wolves so you know always kinda got that in the back of my mind

But yeah let's get spicey and lay down that vote see where that gets us

I find this post really lame. It's up to you to engage people, you can't just expect people to suddenly have the content you feel okay with.

I think having a solid mechanical plan would really increase town's chance of winning here, but of course reads are super important here too. Do you have any thoughts on the setup at all?

i intend on fulling reading this thread tomorrow around noon server time but i'm here don't fret, i just go to bed early

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Oh was also gonna add that those two Leetic post are so very very good and was gonna give Bug some shit but got distracted and ultimately forgot I had them down there.

Any way those are two very good post from Leetic and Big, come on it's past 12 now where's the content?!

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Doing the calculations, assuming no interference from the Soul Stealer the Freikugel has an 81.25% chance of getting two shots off uninterupted. If the first roll is a one or a two, it's completely safe in fact. Since town KP is so high it's probably good to aggressively nail down the PoE quickly.

can you explain further what you mean by process of elimination? do you mean outcomes or roles?

The thing we may want to discuss is whether it would be beneficial for the Freikugel to announce their result. On the one hand, a one or a two would give us much more freedom in how we can use the Soul Stealer. On the other, town has no protective roles so it would mean that wolves get a free shot on them, but on the other other hand Freikugel isn't going to get a third shot and the chances of the game even getting to that point are not super high to begin with. The main advantage of keeping them hidden would be hopefully having them alive at -yLo to hopefully make it easier

i like the idea of proposing all of the potential scenarios regarding Freikugel and generally agree that talking mechanics doesn't give much regarding alignment. it's how people talk about mechanics that gives alignment clues. maybe that's a dumb and redundant thought but i figured i'd make it anyways.

1. as if I wouldn't

2. this seems like you're posting for the sake of posting. none of your reads really advance, so it just feels like you're spinning into the mud.

this is very typical rb/raeko lmao
raeko: i am saying something for the sake of it
rb: sounds like youre just saying something for the sake of it......
seems t/t

On whether or not the Freikugel should call their shot: I'm gonna do some thinking about that

Points in favor of calling their shot
-It's a claim which helps town with raw PoE
-It directly helps the Soul Stealer by providing them information relevant to the weakness of their role
-You'll still kill someone N2 as wolves murder you to death

Points against
-Getting a N3 shot off would be great assuming we have enough players alive at that point, but is that realistic?
-Wolves guarantee a hit on our KP

Let me do some quick math:

D0: 9: 7 town, 2 wolves. If Vengeful pops off, we're down to 7: 6 town 1 wolf is BEST case, 5 town 2 wolf is WORST case.
BEST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We win game as Freikugel shoots the last wolf to death.
BETTER CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: Freikugel kills town instead. We're down to 5: 4 town, 1 wolf.
WORST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We're down to 5: 3 town, 2 wolf.
D1: Ends in wolf victory or down to 3-1.
N2: Would lead to potential victory if Freikugel is alive and shoots correctly. If Freikugel hits town, game is over.

Assuming Vengeful stays alive until the end and both KPs pop each night:
D0: 7-1 best case, 6-2 worst case.
N1: Victory best case, 5-1 better case, 4-2 worst case.
D1: Victory best case, 4-1 better case, 3-2 worst case.
N2: Victory best case, 1-2 worst case (LOSE), 2-1 case which makes D2 as final voting.

It seems pretty unlikely we'll hit a third night phase unless wolf JOAT pulls off serious plays.

You know what? After running through these scenarios, I think leetic has a decent point. It seems hard to get that far in the game, and it just might benefit us if we're in a worst case D2 with 3 town dead.
That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

seems general consensus is that Freikugel should announce role after D1? am i reading this entirely wrong?

Looking back over page 1, if Leetic is wolf then he's one hell of a confident wolf. This doesn't read like a wolf trying to just talk and appear towny, this reads like a town who's had too much time to think about the setup and fully believes they know The Strat

I don't think I ever vote Leetic here. Some strong players could pull this play off and Leetic certainly qualifies as a strong player, but i just don't think I'm seeing that here

i agree on this assessment, i dont think a wolf comes straight out the gate with game mechanics and PR hunting publicly lol


sorry for my absence, i don't have a fun excuse i just forgor but i'm here now until EoD!

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

That was a much quicker reread then I figured lol

To me, if there is an active wolf here I would bet it's Ara because it definitely feels like they engaged in the mechanics talk only because it would have been weird not to, and when it became safe to not address they dropped it pretty quickly.

It's reactive, is essentially my complaint

Even the reads list later on comes after we shifted to posting soft reads

Granted we have yet to really hear from Bug or HnH and to be fair, historically speaking on FFR the inactives are the wolves so you know always kinda got that in the back of my mind

But yeah let's get spicey and lay down that vote see where that gets us

i think the bolded point is something that we should absolutely not forget because not only do i agree but it's also true

going to reread Ara and see how i feel with your perspective in mind

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

okay my perspective on Ara is kind of how i felt when i started reading thread initially. i think this game is a unique case due to the roles needing some sort of game plan ahead of time (or at least a breakdown of the possibilities like rb did) in a public way. however i STILL i feel like the past games i've played, people are generally really hesitant to talk mechanics because many people believe that to be alignment indicative.

my initial impression is that Ara's discussion about mechanics didnt feel forced to me, just like they were excited to chat about it but not want to clog the chat with it. however, i can also see the perspective where a wolf might want to divert attention away from it in a casual way so to make it appear as the former sentiment. i lean towards the former but that could change

hateandhatred where

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

also Weiss hasnt posted at all