TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

[TWG Villager]

man like

i see those posts too but link has been hella active all game and making gigantic posts early game majority of the time

and then little mac starts doing it too late game

im rly torn mega man

[TWG Mega Man]

Originally Posted by TWG Villager

i see those posts too but link has been hella active all game and making gigantic posts early game majority of the time

I am of Greninja's opinion that those gigantic early-game reads posts are the strongest evidence against Link.

Originally Posted by TWG Greninja

schizophrenic concept for a human given his stated feelings about mega man and read on megaman, also his strongest early human leans are ALL HUMAN... AND THEY ARE ALL DEAD... (except villager) dayum that's some accuracy, it's almost like.... he is shaping the thread....

talking 'bout that *rising jazzy vocal tone* FAAAAANNNSERVICE

Frankly, I think Link is playing the safe wolf game. The Safe Wolf Game is where you read people with freakish accuracy (because you know who everyone is), but you're passive about your suspicions on your wolf friends until it actually comes time to lynch them, in which case you redirect the aggro to

He's been doing it the entire game.

Humans make mistakes. Humans make more mistakes earlier in the game because there is less information out there.

Link is the opposite. Link had way too good reads right off the bat so he could get on a whole bunch of peoples' good side. As the game developed, he pushed to make a whole bunch of easy kills that everyone could get on board with.

That is textbook Safe Wolf Game.

I highly recommend everyone go and read all the posts by Greninja and Pit's responses to them because they're the most important information to look at for this lynch.

[TWG Link]

Megaman, I don't see why it's not at least equally likely that I played a reasonably well townie that had good reads. And it wasn't as if all my reads were correct, seeing as I was off on you, Bowser, Meta Knight, and Yoshi.

My Internet's being terrible, but I'll try to get my argument up asap.

[TWG Link]

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

Okay hi Bowser.



Mega Man reads more green to me than Mario, even if Mario doesn't give shit for info. I think there is a higher chance in finding a red in Mario and ultimately that's what matters, killing a red.

Megaman, you brought the point that my reads were accurate, but not all of them were. To raise a somewhat similar point, Little Mac in particular was one of the few people to believe you were green when everyone was out to get you prior to your big post near end of day. In fact, Little Mac's been suggesting that certain people gaining traction for a lynch seemed human a number of times through the game.

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

There is so much wrong here that I can't let this go by unchecked without responding to it for everyone.

As annoying as everyone is perceiving Mega Man's relentless onslaught against Bowser, that should be NO REASON to simply lynch a green, especially one you BELIEVE TO BE GREEN, what. If you BELIEVE someone is green, redirect your vote somewhere else. Mega Man laid out his life just minutes before the lynch, and it's fairly easy to read that he earnestly believed was not making it through that lynch.

You don't lynch someone to just "shut them up". This is tantamount to the situation where Captain Falcon was lynched and Ike was "not concerned" about the flip because Captain Falcon wasn't being a helpful green anyway.

That can't happen again. A green is another number. The way someone is approaching the game, however rude it may appear, is totally independent of what our best choice of action should be. (Unless you're going to have some sort of trauma from their comments after this game but come on~)

At the present time a lynch of Bowser is far too risky, but I believe the only move that could be worse right now is lynching Mega man simply for being an annoying green. We could actually now take the time to exam the indecisiveness of the voting behavior like we said we could do just yesterday and find a solid lead among those posts. My next current vote is placed with this reasoning in mind, not saltiness against personal attacks to a headache from constant condescending posts.

Of those that appeared to just jump on Mega Man nearing the lynch, Samus is now gone, Peach I trust in the gunsmith claim, Ike is seered green (???), Zelda simply was there and was pushing for the lynch far before the trainwreck of votes appeared. Therefore, of those left, my vote is on Kirby

I don't know if this is the most telling choice other than the already harped upon opinion that a wolf most likely lies between Fox or Kirby. If anything this direction would enlighten us to that a little more than wrecking someone's game who some people still believe is green! I would love to also hear what insights others see around this EoD time.

You would probably say that Little Mac's lecture on Zelda seems human and I would agree, but it's something that can be faked, in my opinion. More importantly though is the vote on Kirby during the Kirby-Fox lynch. Notice, for one thing, that Little Mac seems to be sure that there's a wolf between Kirby and Fox.
Also, if you care to remember, I had expressed slight suspicion on Fox day 0 and voted for Fox the subsequent day phase when I noticed Kirby shared my suspicions. In fact, I was one of the first three voters on Fox, and had done so early on in the phase, as I wouldn't be able to be here for the end of the phase. You could argue that I was bussing, but who busses with an early vote like that?

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

This is a really good point and I'll be honest that I was so honed in on Mega Man and what's happening there that I neglected to even include the behavior on Mario to the degree I should. I used an odd "process of elimination" to reach my vote, but I really need to look at the other biggest part of that lynch, namely the vote jump to Mario. I'm giving this more thought as a result.



Can I just make the comment that Sonic hasn't been replaced yet. All the people of similar inactivity have been replaced, but sonic hasn't posted since D1 (???) and has yet to be replaced. Maybe he's more active than we think? Not sure if him NOT being replaced is indicative of anything, but just throwing it out there.

If he flips town, I wholeheartedly agree, what the hell would we gain?



I'm perfectly okay with turning up the pressure here on Fox especially since I want to hear what his thoughts are of the most recent lynching and how it all unfolded.

Worth noting that Little Max did switch his vote to Fox some time later, but it's more of a pressure vote than anything, which I assume whose purpose was prodding a fellow wolf to be more active.

Originally Posted by TWG Link

Going to be home in a few hours, but on the off chance that I don't make it, I'm leaving a vote on Fox, mostly because I agree with Kirby's stance (and even mentioned it in my suspicion lists, I believe) and I don't see a vote on Yoshi, so I'm fine with Fox at the moment.

Here's my vote on Fox that I mentioned.

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

While using associations like that may feel intuitive, ultimately, you need to bring your own opinion to falling into one camp or the other.



Do you truly feel this situation is occurring, and if so, which posts in particular, if any, drive that feeling?

In this post, Little Mac questions Dedede for not liking the Fox wagon.

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

I certainly don't trust Bowser either. >.>' ok.

ugh kirby

And then is ostensibly convinced to vote Kirby for such simple reasoning. And a minute before the phase end too! Granted, the forum was lagging a ton at the time, but that still doesn't justify why he suddenly switched his vote.

Originally Posted by TWG Link

Agree with a Bowser lynch, but before we potentially Insta, Peach gave me a gun. Probably going to shoot Pikachu since I anticipate that he's godfather. I'm open to others' suggestions, but I'm not going to shoot anyone I believe is human.

Me suggesting to shoot Pikachu after receiving a gun. I guess you could argue that I'm bussing a useless partner, but if Pikachu were so useless, why would I have tried provoking him to actually post when I asked for potentially replacing him? And to that point again, if I'm apparently playing the safe route, why the heck do you think I would publicly nudge my partner rather than just PMing Xiz for a replacement?

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

While I do have a green lean on some of those who are on the meta knight train, I'm not too sure about Meta Knight himself and therefore still feel more comfortable placing my vote on Pit.

I'm still reviewing some of the previous phases, as inactive as they were, to try to find anything else that sticks out to me.

He states a human lean on Meta Knight and , again, Little Mac votes for a (as of now, presumed) partner.

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

So this post occurred before the Charizard flip. I can see Pit's motivation clearly comes from the fact that Zelda was green, so therefore he can pick up where Zelda left off.

Then the day after, Yoshi appears to parrot the idea.



So Yoshi flies in as usual, apologizes for being inactive, joins the most favorable train, and then logs off after dropping an unoriginal idea.

And then there's these next set of posts:





These are all very odd interactions with Villager and then Pit even wonders why on earth is he not following through with his voting, a strange thing for two people on the same team to do. Can't see Pit making that post if they are "together".





And then of course Villager just sort of digs in here:





All are weird interactions between the three and therefore I feel more inclined to place a vote on Yoshi instead. My confidence in Yoshi being green simply due to sheer lack of caring from the previous phases is crumbling.

Only to quickly change off his Pit vote.

Perhaps this part is bias on my part, but the exchange between Pit and Little Mac on page 132 feels sort of staged to me. As if they're trying to distance each other at the last moment.



So I guess what this all boils down to is that Little Mac has popped into the thread a number of times to say something eloquent or human sounding, but he's never actually contributed anything major to finding wolves. He's made allegations that he's felt that such and such player is human and he would rather vote for this player, but nothing of substance.

I've made a number of suspicion lists identifying how and why I feel certain players are suspicious or human. I don't know where you get the idea that my reads have been spot on, considering that, as I've mentioned, I was initially wrong about you and Bowser (you claim I was going the safe wolf route, yet I went out of my way to defend him and switch the lynch to you!), my suspicions on Yoshi and Meta Knight were erroneous, and I vacillated over Pit the entire game. As weird as it sounds, I think that I've made these mistakes me more human than Little Mac, who's seemingly been playing such a human game so far. He's a wolf that's putting in the effort to appear human. I'm a human putting in effort to make good reads; appearing human to others isn't something I intentionally try to do, because I already know I'm human.