The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[Lordd_Magus]

Thanks man.

[ShadowX2D]

Originally Posted by Lordd_Magus

Last night was a devastating feeling, I am sure I wasn't the only one who felt it. Losing everything felt like crap even though I never cared about credits before hand. No more gambling for me, EVER again.

That's what I was like, until I got 100k from tofu.

Now I'm just 5k above what I started with tonight.

[Lordd_Magus]

No more gambling for you?

[ShadowX2D]

I dont think so, although it is really tempting.

I'm just going to try to get to 30k.

I have 29k

But I'm going to stop if I fall to 25k

Edit: Credits: 30,020. I'm all done.

[Lordd_Magus]

Alright, make sure you stop.
Its weird how I let myself fall so low though. I play online poker all the time and even though I have nothing left right now I was always able to keep myself at a good chip count and didn't ever fall too much below what I wanted. Poker is fun gambling because you know if you are going to win or not. This kind of gambling is scary.

[tofurox]

Don't stop. I got like 1 Million pending to gamble. LOL!

[ShadowX2D]

Originally Posted by Lordd_Magus

This kind of gambling is scary.

Exactly.

Say you're betting and having fun with low numbers and you're doing alright, having about a profit of 1000 credits in about 10 minutes. So you decide to move up, and you go for a 10000 wager, and you win that, so you go back down to try and even your luck by losing and keeping it small. When you lose a couple small ones, you go back and try for a 100000 wager, thinking that "Oh, I just lost, so my odds are better that I will win".

But although it may be true, it almost never goes 1 for 1 every time. You never know when your luck is going to turn around, or go for the worst.

It hurts me to know that credits can actually get me a t-shirt though, I might have to take this gambling thing seriously now.

/ramble

[tofurox]

Cool!

[tofurox]

Lol noones gambling now... thanks... xD....

[Lordd_Magus]

I don't like this kind of **** gambling so I decided to try a different approach to making credits.


Play a song that is worth 40 credits, roughly 1000 steps or something. You can probably find a 2.5 min song that is comfortable or whatever to do this.

1 hour / 2.5 min = 24 songs.
24 songs * 40 credits/song = 960 credits.

This is pretty rough calculation and it won't be fun to play a song like that over and over and over again. But if you are actually trying to can for sure get 1k credits in 1 hour.

So 100k credits is 100 hours? Thats bull in my opinion. Thats like working really hard for 2 weeks at work. If you are getting payed lets say $8/hour then 100k credits is $800?

Credits are actually worth quite a bit if you think about it, thats why I am not going to gamble that **** away. I will just play for fun on ffr make enough credits for the two final songs I need to unlock on secret and keep the rest for the future.

[Izzy]

Can you make it show under how much youve won or lost what your percentage of winning is at.

[Xx{Midday}xX]

Originally Posted by Izzy

Can you make it show under how much youve won or lost what your percentage of winning is at.

+1

[Raveren]

So I decided I'd scroll through the gambling page to see all the insane 100k offers.

On the way down, built in laptop mouse decides it's going to read me touching it as a click when I happen to be over a 10k bet. 70k->60k. ****.

**** you you ****ing mouse.

[Lordd_Magus]

ROFL, that sucks man.

[rzr]

I'm not doing too bad, I'm not doing too great. I'm balancing out even. I do not want to balance out. I want to win. I want credits.

[tofurox]

I just lost like 1 Million credits.

WTF I keep loosing the 100,000's.

[MrRubix]

I mean, don't buy into Gambler's Fallacy. Waiting until you get a losing streak is not going to help you. The statistical masking here is the fact that you're hedging with lower sum bets and NOT the fact that you're waiting until an affordable losing streak occurs with an extremely small amount of credits.

If you place reasonable bets that you can afford to lose that can potentially help you gain in the slightest, you can estimate how much of that margin you are willing to forgo to seek bigger bets if smaller synthesized packages aren't available to take advantage of the variance. Of course, since our betting increments change quite drastically, this would insinuate that playing it patiently is the best way to earn. Betting twice at 5000 is technically safer than betting once at 10,000. So if you can tackle lower bets to synthesize larger ones, then by all means, do it (if you lose the first 5,000 you don't have to bet the second 5,000, whereas if you bet 10k on the first shot and lost, you just lost out on that extra 5k). The variance is lower, and the more you can do it, the easier it is to at least break even if you don't ever make enough margin. However, the UPSIDE to being locked into a higher risk is the fact that you earn more. If I make ten bets of 50, I am expected to lose 250 and win 250. However, if I bet 500, there is a 50% chance that I will come out with 500. So you have to look at the margin of what you win/lose vs. the variance of your next strategy.

Of course, this assumes you are patient. If you're like me, you're going to be risk-seeking and bet 300k and lose all of it in a 1/8th cumulative chance shot. WTF.

The idea here is to make an optimal stopping rule with a higher expected payoff. The correct "strategy" to this betting system would actually be in the form of a large table indicating how to hedge depending on amount won or lost on the immediate margin. Finding the rule though is a very hard task.

So never ever bet what you aren't willing to lose -- if you manage to win big, don't get greedy. Try to partition off what you won to at least ensure that you don't overbet.

[DossarLX ODI]

Originally Posted by MrRubix

I mean, don't buy into Gambler's Fallacy. Waiting until you get a losing streak is not going to help you. The statistical masking here is the fact that you're hedging with lower sum bets and NOT the fact that you're waiting until an affordable losing streak occurs with an extremely small amount of credits.

If you place reasonable bets that you can afford to lose that can potentially help you gain in the slightest, you can estimate how much of that margin you are willing to forgo to seek bigger bets if smaller synthesized packages aren't available to take advantage of the variance. Of course, since our betting increments change quite drastically, this would insinuate that playing it patiently is the best way to earn. Betting twice at 5000 is technically safer than betting once at 10,000. So if you can tackle lower bets to synthesize larger ones, then by all means, do it (if you lose the first 5,000 you don't have to bet the second 5,000, whereas if you bet 10k on the first shot and lost, you just lost out on that extra 5k). The variance is lower, and the more you can do it, the easier it is to at least break even if you don't ever make enough margin. However, the UPSIDE to being locked into a higher risk is the fact that you earn more. If I make ten bets of 50, I am expected to lose 250 and win 250. However, if I bet 500, there is a 50% chance that I will come out with 500. So you have to look at the margin of what you win/lose vs. the variance of your next strategy.

Of course, this assumes you are patient. If you're like me, you're going to be risk-seeking and bet 300k and lose all of it in a 1/8th cumulative chance shot. WTF.

The idea here is to make an optimal stopping rule with a higher expected payoff. The correct "strategy" to this betting system would actually be in the form of a large table indicating how to hedge depending on amount won or lost on the immediate margin. Finding the rule though is a very hard task.

So never ever bet what you aren't willing to lose -- if you manage to win big, don't get greedy. Try to partition off what you won to at least ensure that you don't overbet.

Good point. I still don't know why people with 1 million credits are still gambling though, they're just going to lose all of them.

[Clipso]

I just lost.. 5000 -> 10000 -> 10000 -> 10000 again? -> 50000

Guess that concludes my gambling for a long time
(I don't want to lose my secret songs)

[GamerShadow]

Rubix, I believe that was a lot of text, but it was all so true. =P

I bet a few 50's, won 67, lost 200. So meh, gambling sucks IMO. I'll just earn my pay through games and become richer than 99% of the FFR community, lol.