TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

i think the bolded point is something that we should absolutely not forget because not only do i agree but it's also true

I have definitely seen wolves make these kinds of jokes :thinking:

Like, make them on Champs no less
:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

also Weiss hasnt posted at all

Wait who
*Checks*
Oh holy shit we have a player named Weiss in the game lmao I didnt even know

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I have definitely seen wolves make these kinds of jokes :thinking:

Like, make them on Champs no less
:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

i have never once rolled anything other than vanilla wolf. if i end up getting vengeful spirit i'm still not counting it

i know some people really hate rolling wolf but i can't hate it because I've NEVER EXPERIENCED IT AND I'M STILL VERY SALTY ABOUT IT

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

also i only winked because i found it ironic that i was agreeing with you thereby calling myself out but /shrug

[Hateandhatred]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Hey bitches and gentlemen I'm here for real this time though.

I slept in this morning and took care of household stuff but I should be here until EOD with maybe a small break, but yeah

I'm going to catch up on messages, actually am very glad I didn't come back here to 20 pages of d0

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

i have never once rolled anything other than vanilla wolf.

Slip. Theory !!!!!!

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Did not expect so much serious chat in here so soon, was sorta looking forward to shit posting lol

Let's get the easy observation out of the way: Haku's town

As far as roles goes, I think I can agree that town being aggressive early is much better then town being even proactive later because we can still make mistakes at this juncture; I've played too many games were blues sat on Killer Powers until the end and let bias-induced anger triggers them to lose the game.

I do my my own bias in that I would target the least active first, though, but if anyone needs me to prach that gospel again I'm sure you'll ask me and I'll type it all up later. Or go read literally any game I've ever been in since 2019.

Let's see

Haku seems like his town game
Leetic seems alright, he could make those post as wolf but I feel good leaning town
I'm garbage at reading Raeko but nothing seems out of the ordinary for her town game
I'll just leave Ara and Bug at gray for now

Can you elaborate more on the Haku read? I don't think any of their posts are really that difficult to come up with from a wolf perspective. That being said, I understand with my limited experience with them that they tend to come off as wolfy by default.

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

very basic early reads:

Lar seems like Lar (what I would expect from his town game)
Haku seems like Haku (what I would expect from their town game)
Bug had the same reaction as I did to the mechanical talk, and I always see that as a good sign

roundbox please make a real post
H&H hello please come back

feeling like I am biased toward town-reading people because I know them, and because I was turned off by the early mechanical talk

so yeah don't really think I will take these reads super seriously but wanted to put something game related out there

Any reason why I'm not listed here?

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Yeah I had no idea there was someone named Weiss in this game either whoops

Hey bitches and gentlemen I'm here for real this time though.

I slept in this morning and took care of household stuff but I should be here until EOD with maybe a small break, but yeah

I'm going to catch up on messages, actually am very glad I didn't come back here to 20 pages of d0

I look forward to your thoughts on the game

Bug and Lar still look fine to me so far based on this exchange

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

On whether or not the Freikugel should call their shot: I'm gonna do some thinking about that

Points in favor of calling their shot
-It's a claim which helps town with raw PoE
-It directly helps the Soul Stealer by providing them information relevant to the weakness of their role
-You'll still kill someone N2 as wolves murder you to death

Points against
-Getting a N3 shot off would be great assuming we have enough players alive at that point, but is that realistic?
-Wolves guarantee a hit on our KP

Let me do some quick math:

D0: 9: 7 town, 2 wolves. If Vengeful pops off, we're down to 7: 6 town 1 wolf is BEST case, 5 town 2 wolf is WORST case.
BEST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We win game as Freikugel shoots the last wolf to death.
BETTER CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: Freikugel kills town instead. We're down to 5: 4 town, 1 wolf.
WORST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We're down to 5: 3 town, 2 wolf.
D1: Ends in wolf victory or down to 3-1.
N2: Would lead to potential victory if Freikugel is alive and shoots correctly. If Freikugel hits town, game is over.

Assuming Vengeful stays alive until the end and both KPs pop each night:
D0: 7-1 best case, 6-2 worst case.
N1: Victory best case, 5-1 better case, 4-2 worst case.
D1: Victory best case, 4-1 better case, 3-2 worst case.
N2: Victory best case, 1-2 worst case (LOSE), 2-1 case which makes D2 as final voting.

It seems pretty unlikely we'll hit a third night phase unless wolf JOAT pulls off serious plays.

You know what? After running through these scenarios, I think leetic has a decent point. It seems hard to get that far in the game, and it just might benefit us if we're in a worst case D2 with 3 town dead.
That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

A N3 shot would require consistently low rolls. I won't do the exact calculation but I believe it would be about a 1/8 chance of succeeding (again assuming no Soul Stealer interference). Although a Devil shot may be the only way of winning for town if it goes to F3 at night, though wolves would still be favored to win the roll and I'm not sure if that is a likely position in the first place.

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I appreciate your exclamation marks hype as well!!!!!



(Light townread here in general, also I'll be out for a bunch of today; will be back a few hours before EoD though!!!!)

Can you elaborate here?

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

can you explain further what you mean by process of elimination? do you mean outcomes or roles?



i like the idea of proposing all of the potential scenarios regarding Freikugel and generally agree that talking mechanics doesn't give much regarding alignment. it's how people talk about mechanics that gives alignment clues. maybe that's a dumb and redundant thought but i figured i'd make it anyways.



this is very typical rb/raeko lmao
raeko: i am saying something for the sake of it
rb: sounds like youre just saying something for the sake of it......
seems t/t



seems general consensus is that Freikugel should announce role after D1? am i reading this entirely wrong?



i agree on this assessment, i dont think a wolf comes straight out the gate with game mechanics and PR hunting publicly lol


sorry for my absence, i don't have a fun excuse i just forgor but i'm here now until EoD!

Basically, the PoE is the number of safe mislynches/vig shots plus the number of wolves. If we have both the wolves in the PoE and shoot exclusively within it, then we win the game. The high amount of town kill power allows for a generous PoE for a game (5 in most scenarios, though four if we want to be super safe)

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Any reason why I'm not listed here?

Not really those were just quick thoughts it wasn't a comprehensive list

But I can give my thoughts on you now!

I think it was a bit strange to come in very gung-ho right away in the first post of the game talking about strategies for the blues. I feel like it might make sense to feel out the thread first, but you just really wanted to get it out there right away

But you do not seem to be overly focused on mechanics. Outside of that you seem to be engaged with the thread and asking questions. That looks slightly towny to me

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

i think the bolded point is something that we should absolutely not forget because not only do i agree but it's also true

going to reread Ara and see how i feel with your perspective in mind

Agreeing with a post that suggests you are a wolf? Granted, this is a pure WIFOM play

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I have definitely seen wolves make these kinds of jokes :thinking:

Like, make them on Champs no less
:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:



Wait who
*Checks*
Oh holy shit we have a player named Weiss in the game lmao I didnt even know

They're a player I pulled from MU, like with Haze from the previous game. If they stay inactive, they'd be an ideal vig shot although ideally they'd show up as we don't want to risk them being a PR.

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Hey bitches and gentlemen I'm here for real this time though.

I slept in this morning and took care of household stuff but I should be here until EOD with maybe a small break, but yeah

I'm going to catch up on messages, actually am very glad I didn't come back here to 20 pages of d0

Another post that doesn't really say anything. Please give us more than just saying you'll give us more.