Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

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  • MixMasterLar
    Beach Bum Extraordinaire
    FFR Simfile Author
    • Aug 2006
    • 5282

    #1

    Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

    Pensacola, Florida resident here.

    Hurricane Micheal is slated to hit around Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon. It's a Cat2 now but expected to make Cat3 by the time it lands

    It spawned from no were and was way too wabbly at the start for me to feel good about it curving eastward, though. I expect it to shift west.

    I also expect it to touch land and drop down to a Cat1 because I've seen so many storms do that in my life it's silly.

    That said I live i a trailer that's kinda been needing a roof work surrounded by trees in a flood zone so uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh if it does curve westward and stays at a Cat3 I could very well be screwed. I don't expect that it will, but I can't take the risk

    SO ALL THE IMPORTANT JUNK GETS TO GET RELOCATED TO MOM'S FOR THE STORM I GUESS

    (Also I work all day Wednesday so that'll be fun)




    EDIT:

    Mandatory Evacuations just went out for the beach area. It's way too early for that unless we're expecting it to reach Cat4.

    I don't see that happening but we'll see.
    Last edited by MixMasterLar; 10-9-2018, 10:07 AM.
  • aperson
    FFR Hall of Fame
    FFR Simfile Author
    • Jul 2003
    • 3431

    #2
    Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

    I could see a Cat 4 landfall from a strengthening system here. I'd place the likelihood at around 15-25%. Extremely rare for the panhandle but it will have very favorable upper atmospheric conditions up to landfall and will open up a strong poleward outflow channel as it approaches land.

    I think the track is pretty dialed in though, there's very good model consensus today. Good luck, hope you don't get any surprises.
    Last edited by aperson; 10-9-2018, 12:37 PM.

    Comment

    • the sun fan
      FFR Player
      • Mar 2017
      • 491

      #3
      Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

      you're already aware of this but just because something is rare doesn't mean that it won't happen but I don't have the Florida Weather Sense that you posses. Stay safe, friend.
      TWG Stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

      FFR is a pretty good place somehow.

      Comment

      • aperson
        FFR Hall of Fame
        FFR Simfile Author
        • Jul 2003
        • 3431

        #4
        Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

        nvm lol this thing is almost a cat 4 now and still quickly intensifying good lord.

        Comment

        • Funnygurl555
          T-Force's Rival
          • Dec 2010
          • 1865

          #5
          Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

          don't die mml who else will inadvertently make fun of my irl name
          Originally posted by MixMasterLar
          is funny eaman?
          Can you like not use those stupid names right now? Took me long enough to get these screen names straight in my head
          Originally posted by the sun fan
          GET DUNKED FUNNY
          (eaman is her name irl, friend)

          Comment

          • melonpapes
            FFR Player
            • Mar 2014
            • 343

            #6
            Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

            Originally posted by Funnygurl555
            don't die mml who else will inadvertently make fun of my irl name
            yeah man

            Comment

            • MixMasterLar
              Beach Bum Extraordinaire
              FFR Simfile Author
              • Aug 2006
              • 5282

              #7
              Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

              They're just expecting tropical storm level winds here at this point, so chances are I over reacted a bit.

              I think Aperson is right on the money that it's gonna miss me but I did already plan for the worst so you know I might as well follow the plan yo. What's the worst that could happen?

              Comment

              • Charu
                Snivy! Dohoho!
                FFR Simfile Author
                • Mar 2006
                • 6161

                #8
                Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                So it went from cat 4 to tropical storm?

                W h e w

                Sounds like the constant cold to hot here in Michigan land. Doesn't know what it wants!


                Originally posted by JohnRedWolf87
                Charu the red-nosed Snivy
                Had a very shiny nose
                And if you ever saw it
                You could even say it glows

                All of the other Snivies
                Used to laugh and call him names
                They never let poor Charu
                Join in any Snivy games

                (Click the arrow to see the rest)


                Originally posted by Vendetta21
                All in all I would say that Charu not only won this game, his play made me reconsider how I play it.

                Comment

                • aperson
                  FFR Hall of Fame
                  FFR Simfile Author
                  • Jul 2003
                  • 3431

                  #9
                  Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                  Originally posted by Charu
                  So it went from cat 4 to tropical storm?

                  W h e w

                  Sounds like the constant cold to hot here in Michigan land. Doesn't know what it wants!
                  No it's going to landfall as a moderate cat 4 most likely at this point. This will be a devastating, historic hit near the Panama City area. Pensacola will just see TS force winds and some power outages most likely.

                  Comment

                  • Charu
                    Snivy! Dohoho!
                    FFR Simfile Author
                    • Mar 2006
                    • 6161

                    #10
                    Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                    Oh, rip, I'm dumb as hell and tired. Thought he meant the storm itself with that post


                    Originally posted by JohnRedWolf87
                    Charu the red-nosed Snivy
                    Had a very shiny nose
                    And if you ever saw it
                    You could even say it glows

                    All of the other Snivies
                    Used to laugh and call him names
                    They never let poor Charu
                    Join in any Snivy games

                    (Click the arrow to see the rest)


                    Originally posted by Vendetta21
                    All in all I would say that Charu not only won this game, his play made me reconsider how I play it.

                    Comment

                    • awein999
                      (ಠ⌣ಠ)
                      • Oct 2007
                      • 4647

                      #11
                      Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                      how much precipitation with this one? haven't been paying attention
                      Originally posted by Staiain
                      i am super purple hippo

                      Comment

                      • aperson
                        FFR Hall of Fame
                        FFR Simfile Author
                        • Jul 2003
                        • 3431

                        #12
                        Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                        Originally posted by awein999
                        how much precipitation with this one? haven't been paying attention
                        This is a wind and storm surge event more so than a freshwater flooding event like Florence was.

                        There may be freshwater flooding inland as it becomes frontal around SC/NC/TN and runs into mountains.

                        Comment

                        • aperson
                          FFR Hall of Fame
                          FFR Simfile Author
                          • Jul 2003
                          • 3431

                          #13
                          Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                          NHC put the landfall at 155mph 919mb. 156mph is the starting speed for a category 5. The panhandle is getting their own Hurricane Andrew right now. It's unreal how much this system overperformed its whole life.

                          Comment

                          • MixMasterLar
                            Beach Bum Extraordinaire
                            FFR Simfile Author
                            • Aug 2006
                            • 5282

                            #14
                            Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                            Pensacola is missing most all the fun, for the record. We're still suppose to get those Tropical Storm winds soon according to the radio but I have doubts; It's just a little rainy here.

                            Legit concerned for my peeps out East though. I know they prepared hard for this and we really did expect it to drop as it reached shore but that shit isn't happening.

                            Comment

                            • aperson
                              FFR Hall of Fame
                              FFR Simfile Author
                              • Jul 2003
                              • 3431

                              #15
                              Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

                              brick / concrete structure failures: https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/sta...01176681881600

                              This is every bit as bad as Andrew. If you have any previous knowledge of what storms "usually do" it's time to throw that knowledge in the dumpster in a world where sea surface temperatures are 1-2C higher.

                              Florence was very close to doing the same until it ran into some marginally unfavorable conditions at just the right time and people used that dud as an excuse to think that's what always happens.

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