TWG IV - Turbulence in the Air - End of Day 5 - Wolves Win

[GuidoHunter]

Y'know, I always thought that "my time is due" to be a wolf, but, much to my chagrin, it was not yet.

Lots of people in this game are humans for the third time (if they are human this game, but numbers show that some have to be). Q may even be on his fourth.

And, if you look at the statistical probabilities, you'll find that odds were in favor of me being a human four times.

You know, tny, it's that horrible logic that you've got going for you that made me vote for you.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[The_Q]

Actually, it's unlikely that you'll be a plain human 4 times in a row. I got psychic in TWG2. All the other times I've just been a plain human.

Q

[tnyhwk900]

You know, tny, it's that horrible logic that you've got going for you that made me vote for you.

That's not part of my logic because it's not why I voted for you.

[Cenright]

Wow ok maybe it's just me but doesn't it seem quite unlikely that a person would be a human three times in a row?

Three times in a row is still likely.
Wolves.
TWG2 3 of 16
TWG3 4 of 20
TWG4 3 of 16

There are 52 positions. Lets play cards. Each person gets 3 cards. You mark all the Aces, Kings, and 2 Queens.
Shuffle. Pick up three cards. Do you have any of the makred cards? Do it again, without shuffling, because each person gets their own set. Tell me how many get more than one marked card, and how many dont get any marked cards.



Also:
BlahBlah18 has my vote.

[The_Q]

It still is logic, buddy. Anywho, due to a recent exchange of information with Guido, I'm changing my vote to get the next on the alliance's "to kill list".

blahblah

Q

[User6773]

No one is "due to be a wolf" or "due to be human" or anything like that. Because each set of picks is independent of the others, it is a matter of coincidence, not of probability, that you get the same role several times in a row.

Example: I flip a coin 999 times, and it comes up heads every time. Even though the odds of flipping heads 1,000 times in a row are mathematically insignificant, for the next flip the odds of it coming up heads are 1 in 2.

Summary? Past roles are not an indication of current roles. If you want to look back at previous games, look at how people behaved in those roles, and compare them to current behavior.

Anyway, I'm voting for Roopert, because this old post caught my attention as I was going through the thread.

Guido, or maybe you knew that it would look a little too obvious if you got rid of stretchy and you would have a great alibi. I think you are smart enough to play it off like the wolves are trying to make it look like you are a wolf when you aren't when in actuallity you are the wolf making all of us believe you are just the victim of their wolfishness. Just a thought

Stirring up confusion is not an acceptable substitute for logic, and I can't make heads or tails (pun!) of what he wrote there. This is the stupidest attempted justifaction for a vote I've seen all game, but it looks like he was trying to hard to make it look legitimate and ended up getting wrapped up in the reverse psychology.

If casting a vote like this makes people perceive me as "agressive," so be it.

[tnyhwk900]

Guido has proved himself to me.

Being the next on my list, sup blahblah

[GuidoHunter]

roopert's always been on my list, for reasons that I don't have any idea of why he's playing like this; it's quite a change from the last two games. That and I'm off the tny train.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[tnyhwk900]

Also:

Example: I flip a coin 999 times, and it comes up heads every time. Even though the odds of flipping heads 1,000 times in a row are mathematically insignificant, for the next flip the odds of it coming up heads are 1 in 2.

Holy crap FFR people are good at coming up with analogies o.O

[The_Q]

CT regs, actually. Not to brag or anything...

Q

[GuidoHunter]

Or that we've had some sort of schooling in statistics.

ASIDE: Man, I just had an extreme fit when I coughed while drinking coke.

Anyway, while occurrences ARE ultimately independent, statistics is used to show how far away from or how close to the predicted result the outcomes are. Especially on grander scales, statistics is good enough to use as fact.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[The_Q]

Statistics are always weighted, though. Watch out for that.

Q

[QreepyBORIS]

Chardish seems to have eased back a bit.

But I still want to vote for him so I can follow non-bandwagon-voting-ness.

Okay, screw explaining it coherently, I need some fucking sleep!

[GuidoHunter]

blahblah18 (4): Cenright, The Q, tnyhwk900, roopert
roopert (2): GuidoHunter, chardish
GuidoHunter (1): eyespewgreekfire
chardish (1): QreepyBORIS

EDIT: Added roopert's vote

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[roopert]

I don't how I've been playing this game is any different than the other two games. I've just been a regular human all three times. As for my paragraph that made no sense, it basically said that Guido could be trying to make it look like he was being framed as a wolf when he actually was. He tried to make it look like he was set up, because obviously he wouldn't be stupid enough to vote off a friend of his or whatever after we had just lynched kilga for it. It's kind of confusing to explain. Does anyone understand what I'm getting at?

As far as my vote goes, I am going to have to vote for blahblah because I know I'm not a wolf, but he very well could be. Therefor so we don't lynch another human today, my vote goes to him. Yes, it is sort of an attempt to save myself, but at the same time we could be getting rid of a wolf.

edited for errors and more thoughts.