TWG 194 - Game Thread

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

I have trouble to take your 0.06% chance thing seriously.

[flashflash account]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

want to put something more tangible on these odds?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.

[Duskfall]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually

~5.25 percent

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.

If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong.

[Duskfall]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

First of all, you're doing the math wrong, it's a 99.94% chance Mikey is lying.

Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP.

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually



~5.25 percent

You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

[Duskfall]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

you arent accounting for the fact that

- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5

-we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all

[Duskfall]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL

its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I think you're forgetting that we only need 2 wrong votes to have a vote rush into a mislynch.

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL

its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

But the one C and one V were rolled with the rest of the numbers, so leaving them out skews the results

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

Oh the mistake here is that you're calculating for 3 consecutive C rolls and then 4 consecutive non-C rolls and then taking the odds of both those events happening.
No wonder it's such a small chance.