TWG 194 - Game Thread

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

It's concerning me a bit that I'm considered the purest town player here.

why, are you not?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

why, are you not?

Nah, it's more like how I easily get my town reads compared to others.

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

leetic, if you want to talk statistics, I see a 40% chance of dbp being wolf minimum
I realize you have different statistics than me but even if me/dusk/x is the wolf team that's still higher odds for dbp to be wolf than for the setup to be CCCxxxx by any measure lol
basing anything off of statistics is pretty stupid because of how badly it can be minced and mangled

This isn't necessarily a comparable situation, since from my perspective everyone else has the same statistical chance of being a wolf but your claim only applies to your slot.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Aaaaaaaahahaha17wusjw8wuwuwus8iwiwiwiwuw DBP FUCK

Well i guess if DBP pocketed me hard it was the easiest damn pocket because all he had to do was point out how fucking silly everyone sounded.

I'll stand by, in post game, that Xiz losing his cool and claiming at pressure from Haku really just dicked everyone over.

But i reas thread and I have reasons to believe FFA might be the truthful one here as satisfying as it would be to have him wolf. But hey, DBP flips anything not red you're getting insta-lynched with extreme prejudice fucker


------
Duskfall looks a little better for nor wanting massclaim
Bolth and Jessie need to play the game




He does this and and i will make 5 posts voting him with various spellings of his name and then AFK

Let's say I take this MML post.

I look at it.

I'm like; is this MML actually being upset that DBP might have been pocketing him or he's simply together with DBP and he knows that this situation will put him in danger ?

Does this story make sense ?

Are we going to realize that DBP was real and FFA was fake ?

etc. etc.

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Also, my maths might be wonky but I think we're 1 off insta on dbp again

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Also, my maths might be wonky but I think we're 1 off insta on dbp again

Well, that's probably on purpose.

insta is 5.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Imagine how weird this game is if wolf team was leetic/MML/FFA.

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Let's work under the assumption that Xiz was blocked by a wolf blocker (it's still possible that he was blocked by a town blocker, but until someone claims I'll just leave that be). If the wolves thought Xiz was definitely going to shoot town, then there would be no real reason to block Xiz. That means that, most likely, someone thought there might be a chance, however small, that someone on the wolf team would go down. Let's look through Xiz's ISO towards the end of D1 to see if we have any leads:

I'm sus of Ult trying to lead my shot choice, but its low sus

psycho is not wolves with ult most likely from ult's post telling me to shoot her...

but then again ult seems like a decent player so that might be a bus? something to note, no real sway on me imo

ffa is ult a possible vote for you today

He was focusing quite a bit on "Ult" (from context, I believe this is referring to MML). Thus, MML is the one who would have had the most reason to roleblock Xiz as a wolf. This is something to consider.

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Also, my maths might be wonky but I think we're 1 off insta on dbp again

Since DBP was twice to near insta but wasn't hammered immediately, that reflects poorly on that slot's odds of being town. Well, either that, or the other mafia is jessiebessie, which is also a huge possibility

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Imagine how weird this game is if wolf team was leetic/MML/FFA.

If FFA turns out to be lying this is the team that would make the most sense to me.

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Since DBP was twice to near insta but wasn't hammered immediately, that reflects poorly on that slot's odds of being town. Well, either that, or the other mafia is jessiebessie, which is also a huge possibility

Is this assuming scum would immediately hammer?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If anything, I think that makes DBP look good because wolves are likely to vote the town player here.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Let's work under the assumption that Xiz was blocked by a wolf blocker (it's still possible that he was blocked by a town blocker, but until someone claims I'll just leave that be).

I stopped thinking here because I can totally see a town blocker block Xiz.

[flashflash account]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Is this assuming scum would immediately hammer?

I don't think wolves hammering the slot if it's town is out of the question, because then it basically locks town into lynching me the next day because lolffr

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

So, is DBP/MML/jessiebessie a valid scumteam? DBP and Ulle/Shado did have a few posts that made them feel unaligned (such as DBP misgendering Ulle and interjecting on Ulle's behalf in a way that looks w/t) even if the evidence for a jessie/Shadow pairing is strong. DBP (and MML, I believe) both said we should be lynching inactive, so the fact that jessie didn't pick up any serious traction as a lynch option in the last two days looks weird on them. MML was also one of the people who avoided voting for DBP the first time he got near insta, so there's that too. I'll look through MML's ISO but this does seem like it has a decent chance to be our team.