TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

I feel like we have to assume the guarding that was used on Daikyi if it was a guarding preventing a kill, was a one-shot, because if it's repeatable, we've basically won and that would be too easy for the level of complexity for this game.

[Soundwave-]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

I feel like we have to assume the guarding that was used on Daikyi if it was a guarding preventing a kill, was a one-shot, because if it's repeatable, we've basically won and that would be too easy for the level of complexity for this game.

This is kind of what I was thinking, but it's plausible since Dai is only an even medic.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

fox fire results showed someone who I guess is investigative immune because I didn't get their name? as well as a visitor presumably responsible for the save. Combine this with daikyi being the obvious wolf target (especially considering they would have had negative indication that daikyi was saveable as of last night) and I can only infer this is what happened.

So if we assume hidden visitor was the wolf, and visible visitor was the guard, I still want to know how this gets us to Dafty dead in the night.

[Soundwave-]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

So if we assume hidden visitor was the wolf, and visible visitor was the guard, I still want to know how this gets us to Dafty dead in the night.

Probably shot. I don't care to speculate how; if somebody knows, they'd best say. If they don't, then I assume they have a reason to keep it to themselves.

It could also all be wrong and Dafty is actually the wolf kill but that's a dumb world on a few different levels.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

I can't think of a single reason for somebody who can shoot, to have shot Dafty at that time, that's what has me so messed up. Like, nobody regardless of team or alignment gains from that unless it's a 3p wincon we don't know about.

But definitely yes:

Dafty as wolf kill before Xiz confirmed they'd have known he was a wolf: Extremely unlikely but in the realm of the possible

Dafty as wolf kill now that Xiz confirmed they'd have known he was a wolf? Not a chance at all unless this is some extremely deep wolf chaos strat and even then they could have just left him to get lynched today and been further ahead.

[Soundwave-]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

If they believed that Dafty was a town wagon, it's a perfectly fine shot: has as good a chance of any of hitting, and is non controversial. It basically just time warps us one day ahead of the wolves.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

What do you mean 'has a good chance of hitting' here? Of being not guarded?

[Soundwave-]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

As in, not hitting a town. But that's actually a textbook mechanically solid time to shoot, because it saves us a lynch even if Dafty flipped town. Compared to just popping off randomly and hitting a town or just dying, it's pretty ok utility.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

Okay I've completely lost the thread of what you're saying.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

Oh, oh you're talking about a town using the shot on him at night. Okay.

I just...still have trouble thinking of that as a good shoot for town. Like, if he's a wolf, we killed him, yay, we're down our shot, boo, and now we have to lynch somebody who might be a mislynch, boo.

If he's town, it's even worse, we aren't down a wolf, we are down our shot, and we still have to lynch somebody who might be a mislynch.

If I had a kill power right now, I'd be waiting until I had at least a strong suspicion that somebody was a wolf who was actually doing shit. Is that a bad strategy?

[Soundwave-]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

It's not a worse-than-normal shot statistically and it's actually a good shot because it knocks a name off the town hitlist without taking up a day.

The intuitive shooting strategy is to shoot at targets that are 50+% wolf but more often than not that means you just don't shoot (which isn't actually bad because numbers are fucked and stuff but that's a lengthier discussion).

[Soundwave-]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

It's really hard to pin numbers on hunches and then analyze whether or not you should shoot, but in general I'd say players overvalue how much their hunches actually effect the mechanics of a shot and are quick to shoot in the wrong place and slow to shoot somewhere where it helps, in fear that they won't have the shot to shoot that wolf tell that'll definitely happen before you die.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

It's not a worse-than-normal shot statistically and it's actually a good shot because it knocks a name off the town hitlist without taking up a day.

The intuitive shooting strategy is to shoot at targets that are 50+% wolf but more often than not that means you just don't shoot (which isn't actually bad because numbers are fucked and stuff but that's a lengthier discussion).

Jesus Christ do I not understand the strategies of this game.

[Not devonin]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

Like, when H&H died I was like "That makes sense to me. Lacking other info on who to kill, get rid of the only person who could anchor a confirmed town group." and then several people were like "What a weird kill that does not make sense to me" and I'm just kinda like "wtf"

[storn42]

Re: TWG 187: Senpai [Game Thread]

fox fire results showed someone who I guess is investigative immune because I didn't get their name? as well as a visitor presumably responsible for the save. Combine this with daikyi being the obvious wolf target (especially considering they would have had negative indication that daikyi was saveable as of last night) and I can only infer this is what happened.

I presume you aren't saying the name for safety reasons, but i'd like to ask if the person you could see is who i'm thinking it is. Cus if it is we can practically lock them town for the save. dont wanna say much about this for obvious reasons. just nod of the head and move on.