jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

[rzr]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Player Analysis part 5

devonin - well,as for as your game playing goes I think you only made one mistake. That as defending lito. You guys should have gone at it, it would have made everyone think you were against the wolves. If they had any doubt they would have seered you and then you'd hated come back green and would've been trusted. All-in-all, I think you played really well and look forward to playing/hosting with you again.

HUMANS IS GENERAL- well, you guys really got off to a kick ass start. You really did well pickin out lito from mega. I honestly thought sully was going to evade your grasp. But congratulations for finally catching all the wolves.

THE WOLVES IN GENERAL- I think you guys were a little unorganized. Also, you would have won if you didn't waste an attack on Xception. Instead you should have tried to find the guard before killing the other blues. But you guys own sully for pulling you through as far as he did. Keep at it, you guys did pretty well minus lito's escapade.

[devonin]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Also, you would have won if you didn't waste an attack on Xception. Instead you should have tried to find the guard before killing the other blues

See here's what I mean. When we tried to kill Xception and failed we already knew who the guardian was. We knew who all three blues were on day 1. We tried to kill xception because we were pretty close to completely certain that Mega was going to be guarded that night. Whether we just guessed wrong, or the humans played us really hard, there was no need to try and find the guard because we knew him, and just got wrong where he'd be that night.

The theory was "We know all three blues, so we can kill them at any time. We can kill the guardian first, and then seer/psychic, or we can take a chance that we know which blue isn't being guarded" If we went guard/seer/psychic there would be 1 seering, and 2 psychic reports. If we took a chance and went psychic/guard/seer there's be 2 seerings, and we'd get to maintain the mystery surrounding Lito and My roles. Since humans seemed largely in the dark about who might be a wolf to decide who to seer, and we were pretty close to 100% positive that -I- was going to get seered as one of them, it didn't seem that dangerous.

From the benefit of hindsight, bad risk, but at the time it seemed pretty reasonable.

[rzr]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

If you really did know who the guardian was you certaitly shouldn't have taken the risk of attacking anyone except him.

[devonin]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Why not? Sometimes taking a risk is justified and gives a greater payoff than playing it straight. We took a chance and got burned. We could also have taken a chance and benefitted hugely from it.

[rzr]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Could have. Could have. Could have. But you didn't. The smartest thing you could've done was to kill the guardian. The second smartest thing you could've done was to kill manti. The third smartest things you atle have done was kill a random person.

But you guys didn't. Just learn from it.

[devonin]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

I respectfully disagree that those were the smartest three things we could have done.

1/ Manti was currently under vague suspicions from some players of being a wolf. Killing him would have confirmed he was human, and cemented many of the fence-sitters into the mega/manti/xception camp

[jugglinguy]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Could have. Could have. Could have. But you didn't. The smartest thing you could've done was to kill the guardian.

Here's the answer.

Sometimes taking a risk is justified and gives a greater payoff than playing it straight.

[Xception704]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Could have. Could have. Could have. But you didn't. The smartest thing you could've done was to kill the guardian. The second smartest thing you could've done was to kill manti. The third smartest things you atle have done was kill a random person.

But you guys didn't. Just learn from it.

... kill guardian, then manti?

... why not kill guardian, then the other two blues?

[flawofhumanity]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Could have. Could have. Could have. But you didn't. The smartest thing you could've done was to kill the guardian. The second smartest thing you could've done was to kill manti. The third smartest things you atle have done was kill a random person.

But you guys didn't. Just learn from it.

I would have done the same thing he did. The more unsure people are of who the wolves are, the better. If all the people can say is "I think devonin and lito were wolves," the remaining wolves would have been a hell of a lot better off, because the humans wouldn't know if they were on the right track or not. Killing the psychic in this situation is their best bet.

Of course, they knew they were taking the risk, but 90% of the time the seer will be guarded over the psychic unless something else leads away from the norm (an odd strategy or the psychic is an exceptionally good player).

In the end, the wolves took what I would call a moderate risk, and they got ****ed because of it. That doesn't mean the wolves messed up, or the humans played exceptionally well (though the humans didn't do badly). They took a calculated risk, and it failed. That doesn't mean that their decision was a bad idea when they made it. In fact, it made the most sense.

[rzr]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Lol, through this post game, the current TWG, and my recent activity it CT I've been quoted like a bajillion times.

[devonin]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

... kill guardian, then manti?

... why not kill guardian, then the other two blues?

He means for that one single wolving that failed on you. Our priority list in his mind should have been

Guardian
Manti
Random human
You two

And thinks that by going to the bottom of the list that we made a bad decision picking you.

[jugglinguy]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Psychic > human, we all know that. Guardian ALMOST always guards the seer, we all know that. Those two facts pretty much made us think that the gamble would pay off.

[rzr]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Well I wouldn't have taken any chances. I would have killed him no matter what. And if you had you would have most likely won the game.

[jugglinguy]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

rzr, even with that gamble not paying off, we ALMOST ALMOST ALMOST won. One vote away from winning in fact.

[rzr]

Re: jTWG XLIV: POST GAME!

Psychic > human, we all know that. Guardian ALMOST always guards the seer, we all know that. Those two facts pretty much made us think that the gamble would pay off.

Key word = almost.
I think one thing we learned from this game is how volatile each wolf and blues choices are and that they are unpredictable.