jTWG LXXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

[danceflashrevo]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

greg's such a jerk dunking new players like that b-baka.

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

Oh yeah, explanation time.

First, I want to clarify something. I still fail how to see how a non-nightkill implicates anybody O.O If the JK targets X and no nightkill occurs, then either (1) X was wolf or (2) X was the wolf's target, both of which have equal probability.

Next, I'll say why I didn't target greg n2. So I was under the very strong belief that AA was a wolf (I'll elaborate later). That said, if AA was a wolf, then he knew there was a doctor. Since he knows there is a doctor that would likely target Greg, it wouldn't make sense for AA to target Greg...it'd make more sense for him to target the doctor first. However, I knew that he knew there was a doctor, so it wouldn't make sense for me to bother saving greg either if I know that AA wouldn't bother saving him. This is not a wifom situation because at the time, AA didn't know that the doctor knew that he knew there was a doctor. That's my reasoning. It turns out AA got a seer on me, but I feel like he wouldn't have targeted Greg even if he didn't have the read on me.

Now there's the more general reason why I didn't bother saving anyone else. Some reasons:
1) I felt that I was most likely to be picked as AA's lynch target for appearing the most towny. For the most part, I was able to convince most of town of my towniness after my long post (except maybe from Zenith when I first posted it). For the most part, the remaining players had at least a few players that were suspicious of them.
2) For purely mathematical purposes, a nightkill would give town a parity advantage.
3) A nightkill, would increase the ratio of confirmed town.

Suppose before the nightkill there were m confirmed towns and n total players remaining. Thus, m/n of the players are confirmed. Suppose in the worst case scenario of a nightkill that a confirmed townie dies. Then, the number of confirmed townies decreases by one but also increases because of SK. But the total number of players decreases by 1. Thus, the new proportion is m/(n-1) > m/n.

4) A non-nightkill would give town inconclusive results. If I had decided to save someone, it would have made the results MORE inconclusive. Suppose Greg jailed X and I saved Y and no nightkill occurs. Then we can not differentiate between the four:
i) Greg saved X from the wolves
ii) Greg blocked the nightkill of X, the wolf
iii) Ben saved X from the wolves
iv) Wolves didn't submit a nightkill

As for why I thought AA was wolf. AA, your right that my argument against you doesn't work. I was able to deduce that if you were a wolf, then you'd know there was a doctor, however I didn't bother checking if the implication works the other way around. That's why I said that I didn't want to bother giving a step-by-step argument when I posted my final post...(1) because I was lazy and (2) it's probably not even true (LOL). However, there was a point I was trying to get across that I didn't articulate well in my post...and this is the reason why my suspicions grew on you. It wasn't so much the fact that you knew there was a wolf. It was the fact that you presented that piece of information as a hard fact, not a fact from your personal perspective of things at the moment, but a universal fact that could be derived from all players. The way that you followed up with that post also didn't help garner my suspicions away from you. Then lastly, there were the other tidbits such as you quickly siding with me and questioning zenith's alignment, jumping off the dfr wagon and it just made so much sense to me why a wolf would do all of those things in my mind.

Thanks everyone for playing and yoshl for hosting! It was fun to (kinda) actively play (and complete!) a twg game xD

[AragakiAyase]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

All good points and things for me to improve on. I have stuff to work on mechanically and with posting lol

Howevere being a wolf doesn't make me know that there's a doctor, I just happened to seer you n1 which is why I knew. Also if I hadn't seered you i would've killed Greg for sure, I just thought you'd save him. Either way though I should have targeted him

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

nvm...wait...I'm being dumb.

[AragakiAyase]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

Jailkeeper op tldr

Play in the m6, I like your logic heavy posts

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

Howevere being a wolf doesn't make me know that there's a doctor

Ok...I don't know what was going on in my head when I was thinking that lmfao. I must have been under the impression that you were in fact the one that made the kill at the time (targeting my target Zenith) but that doesn't make sense since dfr wouldn't have easily cracked under greg's claim.

Goes to show I need to actually write all my arguments thoroughly instead of just thinking "yeah, sounds 'bout right" and going with it lmfao

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

Jailkeeper op tldr

Play in the m6, I like your logic heavy posts

Thanks, will do <3 you have a knack for doing very thorough analysis yourself

I'll try to keep posting in a cold warm and calculating manner :P

[dAnceguy117]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

hey I haven't read the game thread, but y'all are awesome for the complete absence of salt ITT.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: jTWG LXVIII - Welcoe to | Pst Gae

twg vets could learn a thing or 2 from this thred