TWG Turbo IX: The Bells of St. Sebastian - Game Thread

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Yes. I started ISOing her, got interrupted, saw a question about her, recalled a couple of her posts begging not to be lynched, thought that her tone seemed genuinely town even though begging itself is bullshit, and hurried to finish responding because there was no time. As it is, I finished the response at T-8mins (iirc), and voted my top scum.

You gonna address your D1 soft defense of her, suggesting not lynching either her or AA, and bringing me up out of nowhere after I was being scumread?

Even if that's true, you can see why I find it sketchy as hell that you turned up mostly empty handed on funnygurl

and sure, I just logged out of my game

[YoshL]

the difference here is that funnygurl was so much more pertinent to the previous night's lynch, and you couldn't offer up anything on funnygurl imo

[ShadoWolfe]

Coolbeans, I look forward to your response.

Working on YoshL ISO rn.
I feel really bad for whichever towns are gonna be in F3 because this is a really hard game

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

DBP D0:

So, after his initial shitposts about snacks, planes, and eating YoshL, DBP really starts playing three hours 2.5 hours before EoD D0.

I doubt you want an explanation for this, but I took a nap after flying home for the winter


His very first serious post of the game is a half-shitposty support of YoshL's scumread of Freezin. He had voted YoshL earlier, so the apparent contradiction is a joke, but he makes a legitimate point about Freezin's list.

A few minutes later, he soft-defends Freezin, saying he likes that Freezin asked people to stop hating on his list because it signifies some kind of personal investment.
This is noteworthy only because Freezin died that nightphase and DBP spent much of the next day analyzing that same death.

Fair, but are you suggesting that I was reading Freezin as vigi? If not, why would I not pick Charu or YoshL, the stronger town reads I had at the time? (If I was wolf, I would have to be pretty sure of Charu as town, and he's typically pretty good at projecting town.

Additionally, Freezin was scumread by plenty of other people, so it would be pointless for me to kill him unless I had some other reason. He was a threat to FG? He was the vigi? The former isn't realistic and the latter is false because I have no clue how somebody could have read him vigi.

Tone for the next hour is relatively shitposty considering EoD D0


Calls out AA, seems natural still because he's the one being voted.
Stops posting after that for awhile, until AA says he's frozen. He respond with a hilarious video that ironically broke the ice.

First actual response to being called out as frozen:
Implying he felt no pressure because AA said he voted for pressure, then asks AA if his posts didn't feel genuine to him.

At this point, I'd have said "no, but there's no scumhunting in them, either"

He mentions he's not capable of reading Charu and hopes others can, finally responds to AA's push "the thing holding me back about AA is that the vote is so fucking stupid if he's a wolf trying to mislynch me that I can't imagine that's what's actually happening here

esp from AA"

Yes, I think stupid plays typically don't come from wolves, since they are much more attentive to their own behavior

--nothing major from DBP so far--


Defends Freezin and rereads him as town (despite his earlier suspicion) and mentions an intention of an eventual reread, which could be important, but I don't want to tinfoil here.

Sure, this looks bad for me, but see above

Calls out DFR for being obsessed with Freezin, then mentions he ISO'd DFR "there's a lot of question-asking/prodding, and then some defenses of other players, but not a whole lot of finding scums (outside of freezin)"

more shitposts



^ first "reads" of the day, noting for future reference.

Interestingly, YoshL calls him out for "constantly straying off to the side, rather than offering the hyperfocus scumhunter that town dbp usually is that i think i'm set"
DBP responds by asking if YoshL has read his earlier posts (which at this point seem like they were truly constantly straying off to the side)


^Regarding Freezin

[b]AA says "I don't like giving her a pass but I think she can be lynched tomorrow barring something good", DFR responds with



Seems town in retrospect.

Says AA is forcing a dichotomy



Soft-defends FG.
and again:



Then ends D0 with "I actually don't know what I want to do here" and a vote on DFR.

lynching inactives is generally a bad idea

the first post was me trying to get clarification from Freezin about a contradiction I thought I found

he wanted to lynch an inactive but his sig was about "not lynching inactives"

DBP D1:

Starts D1 with "Wasn't Charu scumreading freezin?" after Freezin's flip. That's a little suspicious because of how he switches his read of freezin the day before and because it was his instant response to the flip.

Defends Charu on the info lynch thing, noting that he doesn't "see what the utility of voting for you instead of Freezin was if he's a wolf", which is a good point.

Doesn't post for two hours, then "Keijo is the anime of the season". you're goddamn fucking right it is

Doesn't post for 4 more hours then "I don't have a lot to say at the moment"
"the choice seems to be converging to AA vs fg vs T-Force"

^General commentary, not alignment indicative, but it's interesting that AA and T-Force were perfectly capitalized and hyphenated but FG was left lowercase.

Are you fucking kidding me???????????????????

Says isos broken for him but he wants to revist freezin and then starts analyzing the kill again.
posts an analysis, then this gem:





more freezin stuff and mentions that AA's the best info kill.

More analysis on Freezin, mentioning that he would be threatening to an inactive (this is good)



^This focuses on funny almost exclusively, but then ends weirdly to me. It's kind of incongruent that the last sentence would follow the rest of the post.

This post is the most interesting:


Which reads like he's talking almost about himself. He "imagines the dynamics", and notes that whoever FGs partner is would have to imagine that fg is a sinking ship.

I don't know what else to say here, besides this is an incorrect reading

Does it not follow from my explicit train of thought?

Then, the very next post (on being prompted by AA for his opinion on wolves):



^I come up out of nowhere (after people, especially AA, had been vocal of their reads on me, and he begins to push FG harder)

that was from after catching up on the game's content

^reads like he's beginning to realize how much of his logic is based on Freezin, and wants to "hedge" his reads.

I want to stop here and seriously ask you if you think this is alignment indicative.

This is pissing me off and I don't want to call you stupid for using this, but I mean fucking seriously?

^possible misdirection or setting up foundation for his read of me (for not being present the first half of D0 and because AA was scumreading me for "inactivity")

"possible"

^here, he's addressing AA, which is seemingly contradictory to his earlier scumreads of "shadow/fg/maybe someone else".
It seems as though he saw AA was a top wagon with FG and wanted to establish a reason for voting him.

He follows up with:

and (after AA says no)



which seems as though he's doing as much as he can to prevent an FG lynch without actually defending her.

yeah, this puts me in a bad light, but in reality I was seriously worried that we had tunneled ourselves into a losing track

At this point FG is gaining a lot of heat from T-Force, and I think DBP is beginning to resolve to bus.


FG asks "how would *i* strike a blue"?

DBP's response is almost chill-inducingly wifom


this is an hour before EoD now

He says "what if the wolves are shadow and yoshl and we're just heating up our own crucible"
^could be more misdirection

bumps a few dead reads and posts without "attaching judgments"


^reads as though he's reconsidering his bus

I question AA's genuine-ness, he says he believes AA but it's near impossible to determine the truth of the statement I referenced.

then (after funny is put in L1):

and a little later


Which seems really ominous and reads as though he's already planning to gun for my lynch, considering AA's push and the pressure on me.

Yeah, because you fucking defended her with the worst fucking reasoning imaginable, why would I NOT think you were her partner at the time?

First post this day phase kind of confirms that (in the middle of me and AA scumreading each other):

"Seems really ominous"

When I have 2 townreads and we have 2 lynches, the game is pretty fucking solved in my eyes, isn't it?

Guys, I think the last wolf is DBP

..

[DaBackpack]

So half of the fucking posts you quoted mean absolutely nothing for your case and feel like padding, and the majority of the others are possible readings with a particular lens (i.e. one where I'm a wolf), and I've provided the actual motivation behind those

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Coolbeans, I look forward to your response.

Working on YoshL ISO rn.
I feel really bad for whichever towns are gonna be in F3 because this is a really hard game

gee are you supposing we're gonna make it to final three?

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Coolbeans, I look forward to your response.

Working on YoshL ISO rn.
I feel really bad for whichever towns are gonna be in F3 because this is a really hard game

I sincerely doubt YoshL is wolf right now, as AA said it would have been really easy for him to put FG in kitb

esp since thus far he had been on AA's asshole

[DaBackpack]

I'm going to pivot a bit and say it's between Shadow and Charu

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I sincerely doubt YoshL is wolf right now, as AA said it would have been really easy for him to put FG in kitb

esp since thus far he had been on AA's asshole

why am I even talking ot you

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

It's really not me, and I don't think it's you anymore after reading DBP's freezin posts (both before and after Freezin died), DBP's FG's soft defenses and then eventual bus, and DBPs bringing me up out of nowhere late last phase, after I was being scumread, as his most likely push if "FG flips wolf"

If you guys have to lynch me to avoid having me at F3, that's fine, but please lynch DBP tomorrow!

Your Freezin point doesn't follow, the soft defenses, sure, but consider that you have weak as fuck hard defenses of her

my reasoning was "don't lynch inactives", yours was "GENUINE"

me bringing you up out of nowhere looks bad, sure, that was groupthink

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by YoshL

the difference here is that funnygurl was so much more pertinent to the previous night's lynch, and you couldn't offer up anything on funnygurl imo

You talking to me?

Read my posts, I had dismissed her as inactive and said I wanted to see more from her and DBP, then came back late from dinner and was scrambling to catch up. I get that it looks bad, which is why I'm not even asking to survive anymore. I think I'd actually be detrimental to town in F3 and I'd hate to be the final mislynch to lose the game. I'm just saying, when I die just look at my reads and lynch DBP because his posts are really, really convenient. I think Charu is softcleared, AA I'm not sure about but I could see how he could be town (and he'd have no reason to be "tinfoiling" and second guessing his read on me after posting so many walls about me if he were scum), I've been townreading you all game but ISO should help me point one way or another.
I'm like 90% sure of DBP. As wolf, his posts have been 100% in line with what's best for his DBP/FG scumteam. As town, I don't understand the progression of his thoughts on me or FG, but I'm waiting on his response for that.

[DaBackpack]

well, I'm riled up, so good job there

[DaBackpack]

fmpov it's Shadow v Charu v AA

things don't make sense if it's AA, except through a tinfoil lens

it's Shadow or Charu and that's enough for me

Shadowolfe

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

gee are you supposing we're gonna make it to final three?

No. I think I'm going to get lynched today, and then they're coming for your ass.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

So half of the fucking posts you quoted mean absolutely nothing for your case and feel like padding, and the majority of the others are possible readings with a particular lens (i.e. one where I'm a wolf), and I've provided the actual motivation behind those

@padding sure, but it was a full analysis and that included some posts I found interesting
@WolfLens No, I try to read every post from a "DBP wolf" perspective and a "DBP town" perspective. I thought you were town after reading your D0, but your D1 kind of sealed the deal for me.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Your Freezin point doesn't follow, the soft defenses, sure, but consider that you have weak as fuck hard defenses of her

my reasoning was "don't lynch inactives", yours was "GENUINE"

me bringing you up out of nowhere looks bad, sure, that was groupthink

Yeah, I legitimately thought she was town and defended her as such. You soft-defended her without making it seem like you were against her lynch, but kept making posts that would've steered it away from her.

What do you think is more of a wolf-tendency? Hard defenses or soft?

[inDheart]

ShadoWolfe (1) - DaBackpack

Not voting: AragakiAyase, Charu, ShadoWolfe, YoshL

[AragakiAyase]

so you can believe me as more likely wolf than yoshl with fg? ?????????

[AragakiAyase]

yoshl why do you think it's more likely dbp

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

fmpov it's Shadow v Charu v AA

things don't make sense if it's AA, except through a tinfoil lens

it's Shadow or Charu and that's enough for me

Shadowolfe

Soooo.. you think 3/5 2/5 players are the last wolf, one of whom is softcleared?

Nice.

Your vote doesn't scare me, and it won't make me stop scumreading you. I've already accepted my lynch, I just want you to know that you're exposed. Good luck trying to wiggle out of it tomorrow.

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

yoshl why do you think it's more likely dbp

that was a really unclear post, i was commenting on shadowolfe

>>>first thing in his post was "i think dbp is the last wolf"
>>>hasn't actually done isos on other players

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

No. I think I'm going to get lynched today, and then they're coming for your ass.

this makes sense if you're town, fair enough

@padding sure, but it was a full analysis and that included some posts I found interesting

also fair

@WolfLens No, I try to read every post from a "DBP wolf" perspective and a "DBP town" perspective. I thought you were town after reading your D0, but your D1 kind of sealed the deal for me.

but you made no almost consideratinos about "DBP town" in that phase which feels like cherry picking

Yeah, I legitimately thought she was town and defended her as such. You soft-defended her without making it seem like you were against her lynch, but kept making posts that would've steered it away from her.

What do you think is more of a wolf-tendency? Hard defenses or soft?

I "soft-defended her" on D0 because I opposed the idea of lynching an inactive on D0

And generally speaking? Sure, soft-defenses. But in this case, I didn't steer the lynch from her on D1, your hard defense was bad, and your vote was enough to actually enough to causes a KitB and save her, which ultimately could swerve the lynch away from her (it didn't, but it was the best a wolf you could have done)

so yeah, the hard defense is worse in this scenario

..