TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[Omeganitros]

What? Oh, I hadn't realized Kilga updated to Day 1.

Well, it's nice to have information on our wolves: They aren't risk-takers that take their chances with beating the lottery.

[talisman]

oh what the.

ugh so predictable.

[Shashakiro]

Yes Tass, we're all so horribly inactive because we don't stay up past midnight to look at the TWG update. =P

Anyway...as only one person has talked to me over AIM since the wolfing, and there hasn't really been any discussion here about voting, I don't really have anything useful to say yet, sorry =(

[blahblah18]

tass he wasn't killed, and with so many good palyers to choose from, wouldn't he be the most fun one to kill unless he's a wolf? gg Tass

[Wilkin]

Let's get this started off right:

1) The Vigi role. I've never played in a game with it, and thus can't say anything about it that Tass and the others haven't already. What Tass has said seems the most logical, and I can't think up a reason otherwise.

2) The lottery. It's an interesting form of guarding, and can have many results. For one, even if a guard is successful, there is always the chance (no matter how minimal) that the wolves might be trying to pull something. For instance, the wolves could all send in their lottery picks for one of themselves, and then wolf that person. Of course, on Night 1, the chances of a guard on them would be around 19%, but if a wolf isn't lynched today, it increases to 21%, then 25%, and so on, including any humans that also pick that person. It'd be quite a gamble, but a successful guard on a wolf could put them right in the middle of the human alliance.

3) Talisman. Not much to say here, as the first kill can't really form a pattern. I'll be sure to voice anything I do think of, though.

More as the day develops.

[FishFishRevolution]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WILL I EVER GET A CHANCE TO PLAY A GAME WITH TALISMAN??????

ps I'm right there with you blahblah, but I hate voting early. Tass is probably a wolf.

[flypie743]

I don't think that just because Tass wasn't killed Night 1 means that he is a wolf. Tass was begging to be guarded and I bet the wolves would rather play it safe and kill a still-important and less likely to be guarded player than risk the chance of killing Tass and him being guarded in the lottery. Of course, there is still a chance that he could be a wolf but I don't think we can determine that just from the Night 1 killing.

[Shashakiro]

I agree with Flypie...would've been way too risky for the wolves to go after Tass, so I don't think that his still being alive necessarily makes him a wolf.

Thought blah jumped to conclusions there awfully fast...hmm.

[blahblah18]

come on, I know I didn't guard Tass, do you really think he was the #1 choice of guardings? I highly highly doubt it

[Shashakiro]

If he wasn't the #1 choice for guardings, then why does it follow that he would be the #1 choice for wolfing?

Doesn't make sense.

[Tps222]

Which obviously means I'm not a wolf because I killed Tass night 1 last game, and the wolves would either have to be ballsy or stupid to expect the reverse pyschology of the humans and attempt to kill Tass. I got my eye on you Shash.

[Shashakiro]

? I was the one who said it makes sense that Tass wasn't killed...

[Tps222]

Exactly.

[CypherToorima]

If Tass isn't a wolf, I think the wolves were just playing it safe, because they might have thought he would have the majority of guardian picks.

[Shashakiro]

So because I think it's illogical and risky that the wolves would kill Tass, and Tass wasn't killed, that makes me a wolf?

That's silly reasoning. Flypie said the same thing anyway, and before I did.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Shashakiro

If he wasn't the #1 choice for guardings, then why does it follow that he would be the #1 choice for wolfing?

Doesn't make sense.

You obviously don't understand.

Tass is not a good guarding choice because he asked to be guarded.

He is a good wolf choice because as human, he helps the team greatly, most noteably in games like this where alliances are what wins it.

So basically, in a game where the guardings are nearly useless, the wolves should be going after Tass, especially when it's obvious Tass won't be getting too many votes. Tass is hardly ever lynched as a human, but when he's a wolf he's usually pretty obvious. Knowing this, he should have been wolfed.

His being alive isn't good enough evidence for me to say he's a wolf though. There is always the chance that the wolves didn't realize how bad the chance of guards are and that Tass probably wouldn't have gotten too many of the guard votes.

And one more thing: ap's posts during the night pushing for the vigi to come out in addition to the bane. He seemed to have a good understanding of how bad the odds are for a successful guard. But then he wants us to give up the very little chance of a successful guard for literally nothing? Well, the wolves have something to gain from having the vigi open: they'd have 100% free reign on anyone but the vigi and bain. Like I said though, the humans gain nothing and simply lose their small chance of getting a successful guard. Maybe I misunderstood something, but that's what I got from it.

[FishFishRevolution]

Look at Tass's first post at night, he lays down the law like he's so good at doing when he is trying to help the humans by giving them a plan. The problem with this is, he always does it a certain same way when he's a wolf. Here are some examples.

from XXVI
from XX
some examples on the first page of XXXI

Coupled with the fact that Tass has been night 1 kill fro like what, 4 out of the 5 last games, and magically isn't this time when it would've been so low risk, I think it's safe to say we could bag ourselves a wolf day 1.

[Shashakiro]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

You obviously don't understand.

Tass is not a good guarding choice because he asked to be guarded.

So basically what you're saying is that everyone will automatically assume that Tass won't be wolfed because the wolves will think he'll be guarded, so they won't guard him. Reverse psychology, no?

But I don't think that it's valid to assume that everyone will go with single reverse psychology. Some people might go with no reverse psychology, thinking that since Tass is the strongest player, he'll be most likely to be wolfed, and so it's best to guard him. Or others might go with double reverse psychology, which will also have them voting to guard Tass because they'll have predicted what you just said, they think Tass will be wolfed, and want a successful guard.

So I really don't think it's unreasonable for the wolves to have thought it a major risk to have gone after Tass, which is probably why he's still alive--not necessarily because he's a wolf.

P.S. I understand just fine, thank you.

[Afrobean]

Who of you actually voted to guard Tass? I know I didn't.

And honestly, I'd have no problem lynching Tass today. We have two possibilities:

#1: He's a wolf. Obviously good because we want to kill all of the wolves by the end of the game.

#2: He's human. This is good because we can hold it over Tass's head that he got lynched day 1 as a human. Basically, it would be really funny.

and shashakiro: if you understood fully, you would have no problem getting why Tass wouldn't have been voted to be guarded too much.

[GuidoHunter]

I know I voted for Tass. You may not want to admit it, Afro, but his record shows that he's pretty damn useful to the humans. I'm willing to take the random chance that he's a wolf for at least one night in the hope that he can organize things and help us get a victory.

Originally Posted by Afro

#2: He's human. This is good because we can hold it over Tass's head that he got lynched day 1 as a human. Basically, it would be really funny.

I'm glad you find hurting our team so humorous.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com