TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

[DaBackpack]

i wouldn't be surprised if Silvuh's anti-town too actually

And you know what's nice, actually? We can say right now who we think the anti-town are and let the OTHER anti-town take care of it during the night, lol. And still vote no-lynch and not risk a losing scenario.

I'm gonna say it's Silvuh and Xelnya. Or maybe Plop.

[cedolad]

Put me and Silvuh in a KitB.

[DaBackpack]

Cedo, what it comes down to is this.

If we do a lynch on Silvuh, then we risk being wrong and losing the game. THEN the remaining anti-town can manipulate the rest of the game.

If we do a no-lynch, then the OTHER anti-town is forced to target Silvuh during the night, AND AT THE SAME TIME Silvuh dies.

[DaBackpack]

What I'm happy about is that finally there's a plan which I can speak freely about because it doesn't matter if the anti-town are onto it, they still have to target each other in order to win

[DaBackpack]

I'm not going to vote no-lynch until yoshl says that the roleblocker cannot block and kill in the night STARTING TONIGHT

[YoshL]

roleblocker cannot block and kill, and must choose one

starting tonight. :E

[iluswirl]

So i looked back on the silvuh agression, I think the statements aren't as incompatible as you think.

Cedo tried to softclaim doctor to draw attention to the wolves, giving our cop one more night. The problem was, the wolves could have roleblocked him, which it appears they did. After the fact, he explained his softclaim and brought up the fact that he forgot about the roleblock.

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

If you think you're useless then stay useless and don't sabotage the rest of your team. A town shouldn't encourage a mislynch by voting for themselves if they know that they're green.

Yeah but how am I to know whether or not you think Silvuh's case is sound? Self-voting is my only way of show preservation. Sure I understand advocating a mislynch is a pretty bad idea at this moment, but to further that point, Silvuh's been advocating for my lynch since he started to build his case. It seems almost as he's ignored all talk of not lynching today, and instead pushes his focus onto me, berating me over that slip.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Cedo, what it comes down to is this.

If we do a lynch on Silvuh, then we risk being wrong and losing the game. THEN the remaining anti-town can manipulate the rest of the game.

If we do a no-lynch, then the OTHER anti-town is forced to target Silvuh during the night, AND AT THE SAME TIME Silvuh dies.

I'm going to make this point even clearer.

If we lynch Silvuh:

o Silvuh's town -> we're fucked.
o Silvuh's antitown -> Great! But now the remaining anti-town makes a town kill in the night and we're in a similar position to a no-lynch.

If we no-lynch:

o Silvuh's most likely going to be targeted tonight, and then Silvuh gets a chance to kill somebody.
o OR both anti-town are wrong and then we get the winning scenario 2 greens 2 antitown.

Of course, I'm assuming that in the "winning scenario" the anti-town play to win.

[DaBackpack]

(that's assuming that silvuh's anti-town, the logic works regardless)

[cedolad]

This is why I want to kill the roleblocker right now, if he chooses to roleblock the SK, we have no nightkills and we're in the same exact situation tomorrow. This is my only concern.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by cedolad

This is why I want to kill the roleblocker right now, if he chooses to roleblock the SK, we have no nightkills and we're in the same exact situation tomorrow. This is my only concern.

lmao didn't see this coming

that would be fucking hilarious

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by YoshL

roleblocker cannot block and kill, and must choose one

starting tonight. :E

no lynch

And I was ready to be flipped. NL in a MYLO is a pretty safe fallback anyway.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

lmao didn't see this coming

that would be fucking hilarious

That said, I don't think that would happen.

The mafia always wants to make a kill in that scenario.

If the mafia blocks:

o They miss: Then nothing happens in his favor.
o And then they might die by the SK.

If the mafia kills:

o They miss: Still get closer to winning the game by whittling the greens down.

[cedolad]

Alright well I'm going to work. YoshL can you text me if there's a flip?

[Silvuh]

Originally Posted by iluswirl

Cedo tried to softclaim doctor to draw attention to the wolves

So cedo tried to draw the wolves' attention. You admit that his play brings attention to himself. Cedo defended himself by saying that a wolf wouldn't go back on a soft claim because the wolf wouldn't want to bring attention to himself. But you just said that he already brought attention to himself, which invalidates cedo's defense.

Originally Posted by cedolad

I was trying to get them to roleblock me, hoping they thought I was the real doc and Psycho could get a report, if you had saved her at least we would've had some sort of leverage!

He said getting roleblocked was his intent. How is this not incompatible with forgetting that he could be roleblocked?

[DaBackpack]

I'm gonna do it, but I really, really want to make sure I don't have anything wrong.

No lynch happens today. Night phase happens.
We know there is a serial killer and a roleblocker mafia.

Optimally, the mafia wants to make a night kill.
Optimally, the serial killer wants to make a night kill.

If they target each other, if the SK is not bulletproof, then town wins.
If they target each other, if the SK is bulletproof, we have one more round, four towns, one naked serial killer.

If the roleblocker dies, and 1 town dies, 3 town, 1 serial killer. If there's a bulletproof, then we need to successfully lynch in that scenario in order to win. (Then we repeat the same lynch the following day.) If there's no bulletproof, same situation: we can't mislynch.

If the SK dies, and 1 town dies, 3 town, 1 roleblocker. Same situation: we can't mislynch.

If two town die: 2 towns, 1 serial killer, one roleblocker. Then 2 towns cast no-lynch. The SK and the roleblocker will OPTIMALLY target each other. (They CANNOT afford to target a town.) If they target each other, and there's a bulletproof, then it's 2 towns and one SK, and then the towns can decide who to kill.

In that scenario, if one of the anti-towns IS WRONG, which IS POSSIBLE, then we have 1 town one anti-town which is a lose. TO PREVENT THIS, we absolutely must establish for the anti-town who the townspeople are. I'm predicting that iluswirl will survive until the end, and then there's one more town.

Are we ready for this?

[DaBackpack]

Well, here goes no lynch

[DaBackpack]

(because I need to take a car to a car fixer place and gonna miss EoD ) you guys decide based on my analysis what is best

[YoshL]

bulletproof is protection from nightkills, not lynches.