TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

[DaBackpack]

oh I quoted wrong

Originally Posted by cedolad

Problem is, there's a roleblocker. What most likely happened last night, I was roleblocked (lol)[...]

[Charu]

That's what I thought too, to be completely honest.

Or it he could be town trying to save a claimed cop.

But now that he mentioned it, he did say that he was suspected of getting roleblocked.

...cedo... are you a role?

[DaBackpack]

the only real way I could see that is if you were a roleblocker.

Indicating that you were roleblocked by a roleblocker mafia as a roleblocker??

[DaBackpack]

i mean it's possible he's a legit role, I don't think it's very smart to try to get yourself killed in place of a claimed cop as a blue, but... i guess it's possible...

[DaBackpack]

...or maybe that was a fake blue softclaim

cedo your turn, just let us know what's happening

[Silvuh]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Also, about the Vigilante bit, the only possible Vigi spot would be a 1-shot, I think this was said. So it's either him, or there's a serial killer

You read my previous post, right? Look at the MafiaScum page again.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9%2B%2B

Two wolf goons are dead. This only happens with three or four Ts. We know we have CCM because psycho and iluswirl are confirmed. Because there were two night kills, we must have a Vigilante or SK. CCMTTTT doesn't have either, so we must have CCMTTT X, which means we must have a SK. So it's not OR there's a serial killer. There is a SK, and we might have a one-shot vigi too, but I doubt it.

As for this other role, because there was only one night kill N1, what's more likely is that we have a Doctor or Town Roleblocker. (This of course assuming both the wolves and SK sent a kill N1, which I'm guessing they did because they both hit N2.) However, a D is twice as likely as a B. Also, if we have a TB, they would have had to guess correctly the SK or the wolf who sent the kill. The chances are much higher that iluswirl was attacked and the Doctor protected him.

Going along with the CCMDTTT theory, the real doctor, instead of the wolves, must have been tricked last night into picking a different target. Wouldn't be surprising given how tricky WIFOM can be.

Of course it's always possible a Town Roleblocker stopped Xiz's N1 kill and, not knowing who to target next after Xiz died, made a block that didn't do anything last night. (If the TB had blocked sunfan or the SK on N1, they would have done it again when they saw a blocked kill and would have prevented one of last night's kills.) But having a doctor seems more likely to me.

And on another note:

Anyone else find it interesting that the first post after the N1 kill was Dab commenting on the choice of targeting Gradiant (608, bringing it up again at 614) and it isn't until Xiz mentions the blue bait thing at 639 (with only Charu responding) that anyone else talks about him?

[DaBackpack]

Oh yeah you're right. I wanted to do the calculations myself just in case. So there's a SK.

So there is exactly one letter we don't know. Two things.

o In every situation possible atm, one letter gives an extra role spot.
o Cedo basically claimed a role with the post I quoted. He said he's not doctor. He said he was roleblocked. If he's not lying, he's the last power role. But he claimed to sacrifice himself for psycho. He COULD be a Doctor who tried to save psycho by a.) directing a kill towards himself, and b.) using the doctor save. And both failed.

If we can resolve this then we can begin reasoning from there. Regardless, there's two scum left.

[DaBackpack]

Oh here's the thing. A roleblock could not have possibly happened last night.
There's one mafia left and he's the roleblocker. Two deaths happened last night, so if the mafia did a kill, they couldn't have done the roleblock.

Cedo. If you're a vigilante, you targeted the bulletproof serial killer.

[DaBackpack]

"Roleblock: Each night phase, you individually may perform a roleblock on another player in the game. You cannot block and kill in the same night."

from the wiki

Either cedo is a 1-shot vigi or he's a mafia.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong btw

[DaBackpack]

Err actually I have a question about order of operations:

Imagine if Sunfan sent in a mafia kill, but the SK got him. Does sunfan's kill go through???

It's possible that sunfan is the one who sent in a kill, and the RB did in fact do a roleblock.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by cedolad

also if you're the vigi and you hit sooonfan best pipe up now. I wanna figure out if there is a SK or not.

The above question settles it for us. Cedo's not vigi

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Imagine if Sunfan sent in a mafia kill, but the SK got him. Does sunfan's kill go through???

In that scenario, Natural Action Resolution or w/e it's called occurs

stuff that doesn't interfere with other things happen first

therefore, in your example, sunfan's kill goes through, then sk kill goes through

[DaBackpack]

oh ok

So I guess a roleblock technically is possible

[YoshL]

also, if roleblocker is the last one alive, they can roleblock /and/ kill in the night

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by YoshL

also, if roleblocker is the last one alive, they can roleblock /and/ kill in the night

thanks for this

well my work has been sufficiently undone, I'm gonna wait on cedolad to come back now

[XelNya]

Zzzzzzzz

[Silvuh]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

It's also possible that a human roleblocker saw the V flip and since psycho hadn't claimed yet decided to block her. Regardless, suspecting midi and I for the roleblocking because we're the only ones still alive that pushed/were pushed against by psycho day1 would be shortsighted.

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

I'm betting there's no vigi and only a B or a D that was successful night1.

You suggest a Town Roleblocker may have blocked Psychoangel (and get defensive about it?) and then bet that the D or B must have stopped the wolf kill instead. I guess I can forgive the contradiction because you seem to be doing some pretty stream-of-consciousness posting, but, yeah, watch out for that.

[Silvuh]

You prefaced "a B or D that was successful" with "only one night1 kill", so it was easy to misinterpret. I figured you meant "successful in causing there to be only one N1 kill", in which case a Town Roleblocker blocking the Seer could not have happened.

[Silvuh]

So uh, it was interesting that, D1, two of the wolves had votes on each other rather than on V. Not counting V's vote, V had five people on him (blind, cedo, psycho, Dab, Charu) and seven off (Xiz, Gradiant Plop, Xel, sunfan, swirl, Silvuh). In D2, I was thinking the wolves would want to kill from the group with the fewest wolves in it, so they would maximize their buffer if we tore into one group. However, a majority of the wolves were in the larger group that didn't vote for V, and Gradiant and Walking Target iluswirl were both in that group. Soo uh, that was totally wrong.

It does make sense now if the wolves hit Gradiant because they took the "blue looks good on me" post seriously. If that's the case, it's likely the SK targeted a protected iluswirl. And if Gradiant was hit by a wolf, and we actually have a blocker, then that person would be able to come out with the identity of the SK. But again, because they didn't block the SK again N2, we more likely have a doctor if we assume Gradiant was hit by the wolves.

... And if we assume the wolves and SK didn't hit the same target, which I keep forgetting is a thing that can happen. If the wolves were blue-hunting and the SK was wolf-hunting (as seen in the N2 kill), neither of them would have targeted iluswirl N1, so ... I feel like I'm back at square one. I would have put money (not literally) on CCMDTTT, but now I'm not so sure.

Anyway. Four of the people who ended with votes on V are still alive (blind, cedo, dab, Charu), and four who didn't are (Plop, Xel, swirl, Silvuh), and swirl's confirmed green, so ... Hm. How often does it happen that a lynch occurs without a single wolf on the person?

TWG CXVIII
D1: two wolves on lynch, one off (13 players, 7 to insta)
D2: two wolevs on lynch, one off (11 players, 6 to insta)
D3: two wolves on lynch, one off (9 players, 5 to insta)
D4: two wolves on lynch, one abstain (7 players, 4 to insta)

TWG CXVII
D0: two wolves on lynch, one off (13 players, 6 votes)
D1: one wolf on lynch, two abstain (11 players, 6 to insta)
D2: two wolves on lynch, one abstain (9 players, 5 to insta, wolf lynched)
D3: one wolf off lynch, one abstain (7 players, 3 votes, wolf lynched)
D4: lone wolf on lynch (5 players, 3 to insta)

TWG CXVI
D1: all three wolves on lynch (10 players, 6 to insta)
D2: one wolf on lynch, one wolf off (7 players, 4 to isnta)
D3: two wolves on lynch for the win (5 players, 3 to insta)

And a C9++ to compare to:
TWG CXI
D1: all three wolves off lynch (13 players, 6 votes, wolf lynched)
D2: one wolf on lynch, one off (9 players, 5 to insta)
D3: one wolf off lynch, one abstain (6 players, 2 votes, wolf lynched)

... Not very often, especially not when it's a green/blue who's lynched. Small sample size and a convenient sample, so I fail as a statistician, but yeah.

So uh. Likely wolf in blind, cedo, Dab, Charu. If cedo's town and just managed to convince enough townies to lynch another town, welp. But Dab's vote was so fishy it hurts. A VT wouldn't benefit from acting so obviously suspicious. No idea where the SK is because I'm dumb and spent all that time looking through old logs rather than through the interactions in this thread.

So we have two non-aligned scum left out of eight, insta at 5, so I'm not in danger of screwing this up if I leave a vote on DaBackPack, which is where I want it to be for now.

This phase ends at 3 CST, so I need to get out of bed at least like two hours earlier. Setting an alarm. If for some reason I'm unable to get out of bed, you'll need five out of seven players present for an insta, so uh, the rest of the town would have to agree or one scum will have to vote another with four of the town so we can get a good lynch. This being if my vote's not on scum right now. Anyway. Sleep time. Sorry I'll be back so late.

[cedolad]

I am not a role. I am a VT who tried to soft claim doc in an attempt to save psycho so we could have some sort of leverage D3. My planned failed.

As for everything else, I like this increase in activity from Silvuh so far, XelNya's singular "Zzzz" post was rather shitty. And the fact he's been sitting in thread all the time worries me.

I really have nothing much else to add, I'm really tired, I just got off work, and I get to do this all again.