TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

[blahblah18]

My Bad, Kefit Was Resurrected

[MiniNeo]

Lol. K.

So... is Iggy and Kefit kind of like a joint-leaders for the alliance?

[Wilkin]

Well, Kefit at least. Even though I have no suspicion of Iggy, the unknown-ness of him is still a variable. Like was said several times before, the Vamp has no reason to question anyone else coming out as him.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by MiniNeo

Lol. K.

So... is Iggy and Kefit kind of like a joint-leaders for the alliance?

Horrible idea to have two leaders. Especially Kefit and I. We disagree on every matter that is twg. Don't get me wrong he's good (really good) but he is totally opposite on everything I think.

Obviously the wolves are scared of going for either me or wilkin. I guess it makes sense because going for us would require more effort than a normal human. Plus you have that super big chance of hitting seer or guardian.

Hey I'm all for killing tass tps, I still think that he got judas to come out just so he would know who NOT to go for. I think he told me that judas coming out hurts himself, but I can't verify that without checking AIM convos. But as wack as that reasoning is, it's the best I got since I spent day 1 focusing on what I would do as an alliance leader and my odds of survival. It really was the only thing that initially stuck out to me.

I'll throw my clouds of suspicion on everyone once I reread the thread and do my charts that I neglected to do day 1. (I like to just see how any given person COULD be a wolf, rather than post my actual feelings towards them, call me crazy but it works.)

But yea don't waste days guys. Yesterday was kind of a waste IMO. With so many known people out there it is easy for the wolves to hit key players, so we have to capitalize on that same strategy as much as possible.

[evilbutterfly]

Um, so like, I know phantoms normally mean nothing in normal games cuz of the number of players, but how about now that somebody survived a death to throw the number of players off? Does this move the win day for the wolves/humans around? I never remember those numbers, and it always seems like their importance isn't brought to my attention until right before the win day for wolves and it's down to the wire, so I'd just like to clear it up now. kthx

[GuidoHunter]

Jeez, Tass. I have to be told who's playing the game and I didn't even get a phantom...

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[ddrdanc3r55]

About the revenge vote: I just think they are kind of wolfy. IMO, it's a way to stay out of human suspicion, while being inconspicuous, IMO.

Anyways, Tass, so I don't get a phantom also. This vote is definitely subject to change, and has nothing to do with the person.

[ddrdanc3r55]

Oh, when I said "they", I was talking about the current situation.

[Tasselfoot]

Frankly, you're wrong. I even went so far to explain the situation in depth, just for you, since everyone else playing likely understands it already.

TPS and I have an interesting TWG history... I haven't gotten a phantom in 30 games... so when TPS votes me out of the blue with nothing to back it up AND I just got a phantom, I see no reason not to toss him a "placeholder" back.

Its great and all you're going to read into one thing so deeply, but why don't you try those same Sherlockian explorations into more important matters. And why don't you try expressing those naratives in a little more lengthy prose.

[Wilkin]

Okay, kids, let's get back on topic:

1) Hans' death. Through all of this RR debating, we've seemed to miss what the real threat is here - the wolves. eb's seemed to have taken a break from human-bashing to make a halfway-worthwhile post, and I'm not sure about all this talk about Tass. We let this get the better of us with nForcer's death yesterday, and can't let this happen again. For all we know, the wolves are just flying under the radar while all this side talk goes on.

2) My coming out. eb said it was selfish, while Tass said there were no downsides. I'd just like to make this clear - I came out because it doesn't hurt the humans. How so, you ask, what with being one less option for the wolves to consider while looking for the blues? Well, by exposing myself, I'm saving the humans a wasted seering and a wasted lynching (lest I come out right before my lynching, looking like a desperate wolf), which, in my opinion, overcomes the increased chance of a blue death. It's been said multiple times so far, but we can't rely on the seer/guardian to win the game.

3) Kefit. I don't believe it was a wasted lynch. It was a much more secure decision than just trusting Iggy (no offense), and it puts a guaranteed human as the center of the alliance. Plus, it throws a stick in the spokes of the wolves. With so many prime choices for a kill (myself, Kefit, possible blues), they'll have to get around the guardian's train of thought if he intends to go for either myself or Kefit. Also, I'd like to hear from Kefit in the thread on his thoughts about this and the alliance.

More to come as the day develops.


Oh, and just because none has been posted:

Kefit (6) - Guido, Hans, Mini, Tps, Kefit, Kilga
eb (3) - Fish, Wilkin, Iggy
Tass (1) - Talisman
Iggy (1) - Afro

Phantoms (4) - eb, ddr, Tass, LD


And here's how things are today:

Tass (2) - Tps, ddr
Tps (1) - Tass

Left to vote (11) - everyone else

[iggymatrixcounter]

lol at wilkin always doing the host's job.

Anyways:
1) Hans kill, to me, just seemed like blue hunting, but if you look at everything, it could have just as well been planned. Hans didn't get a phantom (it matters a lot more since we are at an even amount of people at the moment.)

Hans made a post (67) that the second night seer choice should come out. Why he wouldn't say night 1 is weird I guess. But I reasoned that either: hans was seer and choose myself, wilkin, or kefit as his first nihgt pick and just slipped up, OR hans was the night 1 choice and didn't want to lead anything. I kind of think it's the latter. So there is some reason to why hans would die if you can't accept random kills lol.

Now after rereading the thread I found a couple reasons why any given person could be a wolf.

TASS: strongest wolf choice. Wanted judas and saulus to come out, making it easier for wolf picks. (Yes there were some human benefits but those benefits could have been just as easily achieved if judas went to saulus privately.) He posted how judas could work with the alliance as a good thing, which I thought was wack since as soon as judas turned all would break lose. Even though he got a phantom, he posted a vote on guido, which was weird since he wanted kefit dead and thought it was a good idea. He does the classic, "I'll post my reasoning on my vote tomorrow." line. Which I don't think makes you a wolf, it probably makes you more human but whatever.

FISH: maybe my second choice. during the day he suggested that 1) the seer, 2) judas 3) saulus 4)vampire should come out. Now granted they were all at different times with different circumstances, but he basically wanted all roles to reveal themselves at one point or another. Which would make wolf picks easier right?

TALISMAN: hmmm I'm going to stretch some information here to get talisman to be a wolf. But basically back to hans 67 post. I know I missed it the first time reading it, but he quoted it saying it was a good idea. Course you wonder if he considered whether or not it mattered that hans said night 2 over night 1. He could have just said it was a good idea but found that hans must have been human or seer or something, and just went with it. (oh yea I'm hurting that much for dirt lol)

KILGA: meh, said kefit would never lie about his role as saulus, even though the benfits for doing so would be an almost autowin for the wolves. He could have suggested that kefit would never lie just to make sure people knew he wasn't faking.

AFRO: He voted me lol nuff said. But seriously, I was talking to him before day ended, and he didn't want to vote eb because they were tight. He was kind of iffy about killing kefit, which was why I was mad about him not doing anything to stop it, even though he had to kill his MS buddy.

GUIDO: When he was prosecutor last game he was helpful but not posting much. Could be reversing his gameplan. Course I really have nothing against him for now.

MININEO: another inactive person I can't get much dirt on. But I've always had this philosophy that if there isn't anything wrong with a player, he's probably a really cautious wolf. And therefore I will run with that.

DDR: can't read him well. Obviously knows the game but doesn't really know this game's rules. Seems dumb to me so he could easily be putting out facts that he needs clarification on just so he as something to post about, when really he knows what is going on.

EB: lol I liked his day 1 posts. He definitely sees right through what is going on and sees what needs to be done. Course finding all these flaws and not suggesting any opinions on how to proceed is not the best way to go. Doesn't necessarily make him a wolf profile but is distracting and unhelpful either way.

TPS: lol right after someone (I think it was EB) posts to make sure kefit DOESN'T get insta'd, he votes kefit. Way to go wolf.

So after reviewing this I'd say my top 4 picks are tass, fish, talisman, and mini at this point. But I know I'm wrong somewhere since the more someone posts, the more things I find wrong with them XD.

[Wilkin]

Everyone's forgetting about LD, by the way. If we're looking for an inactive, under the radar wolf, then we have a pretty strong lead.

[talisman]

Originally Posted by iggy

Horrible idea to have two leaders. Especially Kefit and I. We disagree on every matter that is twg. Don't get me wrong he's good (really good) but he is totally opposite on everything I think.

I don't know, might not be such a bad idea to have two leaders. Although both knowing the other specials (guardian/seer) at the same time might be a bit dangerous. Perhaps it could be kefit at first and then iggy? Iggy (presumably) won't get wolfed. Is stuff still up in the air about whether or not kefit/wilkin switched? I still find that rather unlikely, but it's probably worth settling.

Interesting about this anti-tass movement sprouting up so quickly. I can sort of agree with it looking at how he moved for judas/saulus both to come out and how he supported the idea that wilkin and kefit had switched and made us all doubt ourselves and whatnot, but at the time both of those seemed like pretty solidly founded ideas (well maybe not so much the latter, that was more of "concern worth raising" or something). Tass is always a tricky bastard to read, either way.

Also interesting that ddrdancer is like "I find revenge votes suspicious etc <vote>tass</vote>" and then says "oh has nothing to do with the person". What? First you imply you're voting for him because of the revenge vote, then you say that the vote has nothing to do with him. Seems odd to me.

Wilkin: everyone always forgets ld. And are we just looking for an "inactive, under the radar wolf"?

[Wilkin]

Just saying that if it comes to that, we have a prime suspect.

[ddrdanc3r55]

I just said Tass, because that's who comes to mind when I wanted to vote for anybody. When we actually get D2 started, I'll change it.

I also know the rules of this game, it's just that nothing is being said right now.

Also, I understand that it seems that I'm like a noob right now, it's just that my words are really coming out wrong (altough sometimes it's not that).

[ddrdanc3r55]

Oh, and a prime exaple of what I'm talking about. When I said "anybody", I meant somebody.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by talisman

I don't know, might not be such a bad idea to have two leaders. Although both knowing the other specials (guardian/seer) at the same time might be a bit dangerous. Perhaps it could be kefit at first and then iggy? Iggy (presumably) won't get wolfed. Is stuff still up in the air about whether or not kefit/wilkin switched? I still find that rather unlikely, but it's probably worth settling.

I don't care, I really don't see the purpose of having us switch leaders. We already wasted the day to get kefit his position, so I'm more inclined to just sit back and find wolves.

There's always that possibility that kefit and wilkin were/are switched RR's though. I figure someone had to contact kefit last night to set up the seer and guardian, so even if kefit is judas, there's probably little to nothing we can do about it now.

Just gotta find those wolves...

I did some numbers and found that there are 14 players left (notice it's an even amount so all of you with phantoms probably won't be wolfed, but will probably be lynched sometime or another.)

Which means we have four days left to get a wolf. Something I didn't consider since if we went for EB or some other wolf choice, we would only have 3 (I think that's right). Course lynching people we know aren't wolves doesn't bring us any closer to a victory but the wasted day got us another day anyways. (That was something that someone posted and I missed it the first time.)

As it stands right now there are 11 public unknowns. Alliance probably has 8 unknowns. (I'm going with the theory that hans was already seered so that cuts it down one person.) Should be an easy win in four days.

I know, I'm so obvious. XD

[Kefit]

Just for the record, no one has contacted me about forming an alliance.

Also, consider if Judas and Saulus did switch roles - that is, that I am really Judas, and am now on the side of the wolves. They key problem here is that neither me nor Wilken would have any way of contacting the wolves, and the wolves could not know for sure if the role switch occured. So in the end we would end up with a couple of people on the wolves' side, but with no actual way for collusion to occur, since the wolves would think the same thing as the humans. That is, that both Judas and Saulus are on the side of the humans. About the worst that could happen is that I publicly post the identity of the seer and the guardian, but then I would assuredly be lynched, making the plan unworthwhile for myself.

Anyway, I will think more about this game later. My mind is mostly elsewhere right now.

[ddrdanc3r55]

I talked with Iggy, and I got a few things cleared up, and shot a few ideas around.

[16:17] randumb lol: Hey.
[16:18] Iggy911Mc: hey wassup
[16:18] randumb lol: Nothing, just want to talk about TWG.
[16:18] Iggy911Mc: sure, i was just about to post another thought
[16:18] randumb lol: Okay.
[16:18] randumb lol: Yeah, I'm not really getting my thoughts out.
[16:18] randumb lol: I kind of backed off after posting my first one.
[16:19] Iggy911Mc: lol thats a big mistake
[16:19] randumb lol: Yeah, well Tass kind of scared me.
[16:19] randumb lol: :<
[16:19] Iggy911Mc: i mean yea you may not be right but tass is a jerk anyways and will rip you on anything you think of anyways
[16:20] Iggy911Mc: lol he did it to me too but im just like "stfu wolf"
[16:20] Iggy911Mc: if we make a mistake just take it and move on
[16:20] randumb lol: Okay.
[16:20] Iggy911Mc: have you had any other ideas since your first couple posts?
[16:21] randumb lol: Hmm, not really.
[16:21] randumb lol: I don't know why Kefit said that you could possibly be a wolf.
[16:21] randumb lol: Oh.
[16:21] randumb lol: I get it.
[16:21] randumb lol: So you could stay alive.
[16:21] Iggy911Mc: lol because he wants to lead the alliance and he hates me
[16:22] randumb lol: I was thinking about lynching any guarded/res'd people.
[16:22] randumb lol: But that would be wasting.
[16:22] Iggy911Mc: meh wolves really dont need to fake anything
[16:22] randumb lol: While the wolves just pick us off.
[16:22] Iggy911Mc: yea since there are so few unknowns out there, wasting a lynch or wolf on me or wilkin is a waste
[16:22] randumb lol: Are you allowed to post convos at all?
[16:23] Iggy911Mc: i mean i guess going for kefit was ok since after i did the numbers we actually gained the day we lost back
[16:23] Iggy911Mc: yea you can post any convo you have except convos you have with the host
[16:23] randumb lol: Oh, okay.
[16:23] Iggy911Mc: did you read my theory on hans?
[16:24] randumb lol: Did you just post it?
[16:24] randumb lol: I read hastily through the thread last Saturday.
[16:24] Iggy911Mc: umm since day2 started yes
[16:24] randumb lol: What's this red/blue thing?
[16:24] randumb lol: Special roles?
[16:25] Iggy911Mc: red usually means wolves
[16:25] randumb lol: I've never heard of it before.
[16:25] randumb lol: Oh, okay.
[16:25] randumb lol: ]
[16:25] Iggy911Mc: but in this game kefit started off on the red team
[16:25] Iggy911Mc: but he wasnt a wolf he would just win if the wolves won
[16:25] Iggy911Mc: however since he was lynched hes now on the green team and wins if the humans win
[16:26] Iggy911Mc: unless you think kefit was actually judas in which case he woudld have started green and is now on the wolf team
[16:26] randumb lol: Vampire is human, right?
[16:26] randumb lol: I mean to the seer.
[16:26] Iggy911Mc: yes i start human and if i die i come back on my own team
[16:26] Iggy911Mc: yea all three of these roles come up green to the seer
[16:26] randumb lol: Ahh, makes sense.
[16:27] randumb lol: I see why Tass got mad.
[16:27] Iggy911Mc: lol yea but honest mistake
[16:27] Iggy911Mc: usually theres a debate about what the rules will be for the next game and blah's idea was tossed around a bit so i would say most people know the rules
[16:27] Iggy911Mc: you came in late so i guess its ok that you didnt know them at the beginning
[16:28] randumb lol: I wonder why the seer didn't contact Kefit.
[16:28] randumb lol: It's kind of obvious that more people approve of his plan than yours.
[16:28] Iggy911Mc: well the seer could have contacted kefit, its just that kefit isnt telling us that he did
[16:29] Iggy911Mc: yea more people approved of kefits plan but well see what people will be saying when kefit dies lol
[16:29] Iggy911Mc: see my plan was better IMO because no wolf would kill me since i would come back and still be against them
[16:29] Iggy911Mc: i wouldnt be lynched either becuase i would be working with the humans
[16:30] randumb lol: Or you could be a wolf.
[16:30] Iggy911Mc: course the same theory applies now but its just that kefit is alliance leader and im not
[16:31] Iggy911Mc: meh theres that possibilty but really there would be no reason for me to come out as vamp as the real vamp would go under the radar and have a chance of coming back as the SK and no one would know it
[16:32] randumb lol: Here's a thought: Kefit could be the vamp, but he waits for another resurrection to take advantage of it.
[16:33] Iggy911Mc: well i know that isnt true but again no reason for him to fake saulus because then the real saulus would call him on it since kefit would still be against the read saulus
[16:33] Iggy911Mc: real saulus*
[16:34] randumb lol: Wait, what?
[16:34] randumb lol: Are you saying the real Saulus would intervene?
[16:34] Iggy911Mc: yes
[16:34] randumb lol: What's stopping me from believing Kefit.
[16:34] randumb lol: If we lynch both, how do we know?
[16:34] Iggy911Mc: lynch both?
[16:35] Iggy911Mc: who's the other person
[16:35] randumb lol: The real Saulus and the fake saulus(possibly Kefit).
[16:35] randumb lol: I doubt it, though.
[16:35] randumb lol: Well, this situation hasn't happened.
[16:35] randumb lol: Maybe the real Saulus would think of that.
[16:36] randumb lol: But it was clear that it's beneficial to the real Saulus to come out.
[16:36] randumb lol: rather than just hide
[16:36] randumb lol: Or become saulus without people knowing.
[16:37] randumb lol: Hmm.
[16:37] randumb lol: Lemme think for a minute.
[16:37] randumb lol: Well, it would be smart, because 1 effective lynch out of 2 is good, right?
[16:38] randumb lol: If we lynched both?
[16:38] Iggy911Mc: who is the other person that we have to lynch though thats not what im getting
[16:38] randumb lol: Kefit, and the real saulus.
[16:38] randumb lol: This is hypothetical.
[16:39] randumb lol: Basically, what if kefit was the vamp.
[16:39] Iggy911Mc: i think you should reread talisman's post
[16:39] Iggy911Mc: number 96 on the thread
[16:39] Iggy911Mc: he basically nails it down logically that everyone would be telling the truth
[16:40] Iggy911Mc: wilkin and kefit arent the type of players to do crazy stuff
[16:40] randumb lol: Ahh, okay.
[16:40] randumb lol: I wouldn't know.
[16:40] Iggy911Mc: now someone like me, fish, tps, or tass would probably but those guys are really conservative players
[16:40] randumb lol: I didn't know Kefit.
[16:40] Iggy911Mc: meh all i know about him is that hes good and that we do opposite things
[16:41] Iggy911Mc: last game i lead an alliance and basically rather than let people talk, i just insta lynched people that i wanted gone
[16:41] Iggy911Mc: i won but he said it was dumb luck lol

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by Kefit

Just for the record, no one has contacted me about forming an alliance.

Also, consider if Judas and Saulus did switch roles - that is, that I am really Judas, and am now on the side of the wolves. They key problem here is that neither me nor Wilken would have any way of contacting the wolves, and the wolves could not know for sure if the role switch occured. So in the end we would end up with a couple of people on the wolves' side, but with no actual way for collusion to occur, since the wolves would think the same thing as the humans. That is, that both Judas and Saulus are on the side of the humans. About the worst that could happen is that I publicly post the identity of the seer and the guardian, but then I would assuredly be lynched, making the plan unworthwhile for myself.

Probably shouldn't have said that first part.

Oh and assume you were Judas, when you say the worst that could happen is that you would post the identities. Well even if you got killed for doing it, you would still win with the wolves if you died a second time. So using that statement as a defense is faulty logic.