jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

[soramimi]

I was going to ask yesterday, Cav what do you think will change between day phases in terms of information? (Moreso, what are you hoping to see happen.)

[ohsosilly]

Friend rescheduled so I'm gonna do this now. *grabs notebook*

Stay tuned.

[Cavernio]

Well, depending on who the wolf/wolves kill, it gives info about who they see as a threat. Which, I grumblingly suppose, depends on how people have acted in day 1.
We also have a seer who will find out if a person is a towny or not. Although with a 50/50 shot because there's a master wolf, those odds don't look good. We may also find that whoever the wolves try to kill will be saved.
Like, this night phase can potentially have a seer finding a wolf and the cop save non-wolf. This gives us 3 roles out of probably 4 people; a seer, a cop and a wolf and presumably the other wolf who will say they're one of a towny, a seer or a cop just to mess things up.

[PrawnSkunk]

Cavernio said it best. The discussion still feels far too artificial for me to make any substantial claims. After 10 pages of speculation, my chance of successfully lynching someone is the same as it was at the start of the game, 1/9.

[soramimi]

We don't have a Master wolf this game, but we do have a roleblocker wolf. So the cop will know for sure if someone is a wolf if they find one. (After the Disney game, I am so happy we aren't dealing with a MW.)

While I agree that newbie wolves are more likely to go after someone who has pressured them during the day/is onto them, they could very well just go after someone at random to confuse us. They might also be role searching, in trying to guess who the cop or medic is.

The next phase will give us more information in terms of what the aftermath of the night is, but we could also be at a loss by it if the wolves happen to get lucky enough to wolf one of the blue roles and roleblock the other.

I can't even remember where I was going with this... I agree the night phase will give us more to work with (hopefully) but it could also cost us. Then again, I guess it's just as random right now.
...my brain seriously just flew out the window. I need more coffee.

[soramimi]

Prawn, even so, this is why we need to generate more discussion. If we are unlucky in our lynch and hit a town, we can at least draw from what they've said and contributed to create new guesses. Add the night phase in, and we should have a whole new pool of things to pick apart.

[Cavernio]

Originally Posted by soramimi

We don't have a Master wolf this game, but we do have a roleblocker wolf. So the cop will know for sure if someone is a wolf if they find one. (After the Disney game, I am so happy we aren't dealing with a MW.)

wow I should have read the first post more closely

[soramimi]

You've added a green checkmark to your name for it, haha. It might just be a hunch, but I think if you were a wolf, you'd know which wolf roles are in this game. I'm also seeing your eagerness to lynch as wanting to have the game progress because we've hit a standstill and can potentially gain more from what happens during the night phase.

[soramimi]

I still would rather hold off on the lynch until we've heard more from everyone, (even though this is painfully slow moving...) but I get where you're coming from with it.

[ohsosilly]

Okay, so this might be an early thing to do? But I enjoy colors, so I'm going to post where everyone reads to me on a red-green scale.

soramimi - Literally nothing you have said makes me suspicious, so either you're doing a fantastic job of faking it, or you're legitimately a townie. Like everyone else has said, I definitely don't think anything of your first vote against T-Force, and it seems like you're actually trying to get to the bottom of people, so that's cool.

Cavernio - I definitely see how my predecessor's posts were offensive to you (I would have reacted similarly) so I don't think that your reaction is something that can be analyzed whatsoever in the context of the game. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's how it goes. Overall I do understand your desire to finish the day phase, though I'm not sure that I agree. Like soramimi (and other people) said, it seems smarter to put pressure on the non-talkers.

T-Force - Overall you strike me as a townie, but you seem less solid to me than the other greens I've mentioned, possibly because I don't know how you play? You contribute, but you're still more removed than other players. I want to see your thoughts on everyone too. You're legit for now IMO, but I'm watchin' you.

RNGRX - Everything that you have said is utterly ridiculous and reads like a buncha baloney. To me, this either makes you very green or very red, but I can't decide which one, so congrats on keeping me baffled. Or possibly blue? Open question to the vets: Honestly, how do blues normally behave in these games, though? I can't even remember.

CarrotCake94 - Overall I definitely see your vote on LeftyRighty as legitimate self-defense, which seems intuitive to me as someone who's never played before. I don't see her vote as an 'attempt to kill' whatsoever, more like an 'oh no, it's not me, quick i'll vote them back!' without thinking of the consequences. However, I can also see this being as an inexperienced wolf action as well, which is why you're yellow for me.

PrawnSkunk - I do understand your nonchalance in terms of having nothing to contribute on day 1, but I feel like with so many other people contributing, your aloofness gets more and more suspicious. I'd rather press people and see how they react then wait around for a green to die, and your lack of interest in doing this makes me suspect you.

Yoshl - You are actually VERY close to being a wolf for me, because if I recall correctly from the whopping one game I've followed, there's always one wolf that puts themselves out there a bit more, and you've been generating a lot of conversation and being pretty aggressive. While this could make you a human, there are some red flags for me. Contrary to what soramimi said, this part of your post makes me suspicious:

Originally Posted by YoshL

it's very likely that i'm going to get sacrificed early.

I understand why you said it, because it could definitely be an advantage for the wolves to get one of the veteran players out of the game early, but I also can see it as a very casual way to shift the spotlight away from you.

The only thing that keeps you from being totally red is the pressure you've been putting on LeftyRighty, because MAN do they seem red to me.

LeftyRighty - So, call me crazy, but "trust me, I'm not a wolf!" seems like an utterly ridiculous thing to say. You have generated literally no conversation except for "I'm really innocent, please don't kill me" which makes me trust you literally 0%. If you're innocent, act like it. Tell us what you think and spend time analyzing. That's what we need right now!

Come at me and defend yourselves, y'all!

[ohsosilly]

Oh right, and (unrelated to the game) much love to Yoshl for using the world "histrionic." One of my faves.

[RNGRX]

I agree I overreacted quite a bit earlier. When all the people you knew and trusted soon have to be sacrificed one at a time, I couldn't exactly just keep to myself. I guess I settled down a bit now and accepted this. I'm sorry for the possible troubles my reaction may have caused you.

[soramimi]

Yosh very well could be red also. Wolves can put pressure on other wolves for the sake of trying to distance themselves, so that if one gets flipped, town assumes "oh, they targeted x, so x must be human because wolves want to get humans lynched!"

At this point though, even if Yosh is a wolf, I'd rather he stays in the game for now. He's generated a lot of discussion and made pushes. I think at least until we get the hang of things, we kind of need him around to give us those prompts. It doesn't mean I won't look into him, but I wouldn't want to target him *yet*.

On that note, I'm likely not going to be basing my lynch on who I find 'wolfiest' but rather who isn't contributing. Lynching inactives is a terrible strategy, and I'm aware of that, but I don't see the sense of keeping someone who won't add to the conversations.
So, inactive players, take this time to change my mind on this. I really don't want to go after someone because of this, but I don't feel it's fair to remove a player who is actually trying in this game, especially since it's jtwg and we're all here to learn.

[YoshL]

p.s. ohsosilly, while it's a good attempt, generalizing wolf behavior or even town behavior to everyone is pretty bad; meta reads while they can go both ways work generally better when applied to character rather than general strategies

if you want to really put in meta, i'd recommend reading up on every game possible and seeing patterns emerge from there. one game does not a pattern make

i've played with trev + sora a couple times/hosted for them or something. i forget though

i don't meta read usually, i'll just attack people don't worry about me

as for wolf kills and me being sacrificed early, i really don't want to get too far into this, because it adds an extra level of meta that's stupid. you can easily discern a crapton of reasonings behind a wolf kill.

i will say that medic has a really important job this game, in both terms of reading the situation during the nights correctly, and getting hella fuccen lucky. that's all i'm going to go into, no more of discussing night kills

as for prawn, i'm liking the lynch on him even more and more. his most recent post implies that he's read the whole thread, and yet for some reason is declining to post even any bit of speculation that he has, even though he's been asked to like 10 times by now.

also "my chance of successfully lynching someone" from prawn kinda indicates that he feels alone. In a group where 7/9 people should be on your side, there's something about his mindset that screams "i'm fighting against the majority". This is even further amplified by the fact that wolves haven't had a chance to talk to eachother privately yet

to reiterate, prawnskank

[soramimi]

ps what is our votecount currently?

[ohsosilly]

Originally Posted by YoshL

p.s. ohsosilly, while it's a good attempt, generalizing wolf behavior or even town behavior to everyone is pretty bad; meta reads while they can go both ways work generally better when applied to character rather than general strategies

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by this, can you explain again? Especially the last part. I don't know anything about character strategies versus general strategies. Sorry if this derails things for a minute.

[PrawnSkunk]

Originally Posted by YoshL

as for prawn, i'm liking the lynch on him even more and more. his most recent post implies that he's read the whole thread, and yet for some reason is declining to post even any bit of speculation that he has, even though he's been asked to like 10 times by now.

also "my chance of successfully lynching someone" from prawn kinda indicates that he feels alone. In a group where 7/9 people should be on your side, there's something about his mindset that screams "i'm fighting against the majority". This is even further amplified by the fact that wolves haven't had a chance to talk to eachother privately yet

I've never read a page of TWG in its entirety before making my first post here. You can tell I'm still posting as if this is a chit chat thread, so go easy on me - I'm still warming to the customs of responses, and forming of coherent statements. So thank you, your advice definitely makes a difference.

If you didn't understand my past post, I already put forward my speculation, but my post was deleted by someone else in the mess of last night. That's no longer relevant, as Gun is no longer playing.

I've withheld most of my speculations because I think they are stupid. For example: I think ohsosilly is more likely to hold a mafia roll, because of her substitution with Gun. If Gun was a vanilla towny, something tells me he would have just been simply dropped from the game.

[ohsosilly]

@Yoshl oh wait, I might get it now. You're saying that it was bad for me to say "how do blues behave in general", and that it's more productive to think "how has this specific person played for his/her past 5 games under pressure?" to see patterns?

Or I could be totally crazy, that too!

[T-Force]

@ Prawn: There's never someone dropped from the game unless they break the farriers of the game, AKA discussing roles outside of the thread, or revealing information during a nightphase for example.
These are all instances during this game that could lead to a mod-kill.
Gun's replacement is like all of the others and isn't too out of the ordinary. Unless you're wanting town to lose a spot if he flipped human, but I will chalk this up to not knowing.

@ Silly: Holy colours, Batman. I like your reads for the most part and you seem to understand a general idea from your limited experience. I'll post my reads later on, but I do agree with a fair few of yours.

[Cavernio]

There's a super weird yoshl/prawnskunk dynamic going on