TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

My post was completely about the game. I just stated that since nForcer hasn't been wolfed early for eighteen games, doing it would be something out of the norm of the recent games.

Also, most of my lack of posting has been due to my lack of suspicions. I don't know nForcer very well, nor do I know his relations with others. With several people so close together in the lynch-count, I didn't feel comfortable bandwagoning on something for the Hell of it. Thus, I put a vote on Gamepro to wait it out and watch from the sidelines.

[Rebirth0]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

I haven't seen any chats or anything. What the **** is going on.

I have no information to go off of, because nobody is talking to me.

[MiniNeo]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

Gamepro, I am sure you can find *something* in thirteen pages of discussion.

PS @ iggy again lol: "I am so hyper about this game I forgot to vote AND post like a three year old but talk on AIM like a college grad."

XD

No seriously, forgetting to vote (I.e. inconsistency) is just... dumb at my part. And if you noticed I was only "hyper'd" for just a day, when the game started.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

aww that's sad... i've just grown bitter because of the lack of diversity of thought in the games... its a different reason for turning Q.. I'm still thinking more intelligently then anyone else h ere, unlike Q who stopped thinking period.. but I understand the point you're trying to make... its just wrong

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

No one could be a wolf twice in a row could they? especially not after voting for a random person.

My vote was not random. I cleaned out the voting pool because I assumed that the wolves would be no where near the chopping block day 1 (meaning that wolves are always too good to get spotted day 1) and I used that to identify people who would more likely be wolves.

Similar to what Tass did, except I didn't use a random number generator to choose from my filtered pool; I chose blah myself.

Your "no one could be a wolf twice in a row" thing is justified, but that's just common sense. No one playing TWG would even try that defense because it's common knowlege that being a wolf one time does not lessen a persons chance of being a wolf the next time.

There ya go. Proved both statements to be somewhat justified but in the end false :)

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

Damn, I wish Jurs could get on. Given the idea that one of the three of us who voted Fish is a wolf and I trust talisman a bit more, I want to hear what she has to say.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

I, personally, would be much happier if there was more than 1 post per 12 hours.

I, personally, have tried to be as active as possible... but for even my amazing level of skill... I can't really post and be active when nobody else is posting for me to comment on.

Gamepro was banned in the last game he played because he was uber inactive... I think I can go ahead and make the statement that if he is NOT more active for the rest of this game, he WILL be permanently banned from TWG. Perhaps that will be a decent enough incentive. I also feel comfortable in saying (despite not talking with the rest of TWC... but they do tend to listen to what I say) that the rest of the people who we deem to be equally inactive will face a 2 game ban. Again... perhaps that will be a decent enough incentive.

Such people on my personal inactive list, you might ask? Hans, Wilkin, Jurs, tasuke, gamepro. Blah has also been fairly quiet.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

Also talisman has not posted in 28 hours. Not quite like him, if you ask me.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

what's to say? no one's saying crap.. we have nothing to go on whatsoever.. clearly I feel some suspicion on talisman as my day 1 vote said... and your'e right about the crap ab out him.. clearly doesn't mean anything though

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

bjstrattonIM: So of the three of us who voted for Fish
bjstrattonIM: Who do you suspect the most?
TasselFoot: talisman. then you. then jurs.
bjstrattonIM: After you brought up the 28 hours thing
bjstrattonIM: I've been wondering about him myself.
bjstrattonIM: Shame he's not around
bjstrattonIM: By the way, I realize I've been going off of stuff you've come up with a lot
bjstrattonIM: But with the lack of a seer or anything similar, there's no real alliance, at least not one that grows daily
bjstrattonIM: Which leaves us all with nothing but what's presented
bjstrattonIM: And you're about the only person with half a brain that's posting with any frequency >_>
TasselFoot: this is true.
TasselFoot: but i also noticed that it was "my" logic that was the reasoning for fish getting lynched.
bjstrattonIM: This is true
TasselFoot: and while i did suspect him, the fact that he came back human... makes me wonder.
bjstrattonIM: But it wasn't you who voted
bjstrattonIM: So I don't place much blame on you, if any
TasselFoot: exactly. wolves love being able to throw my name around as a reason.
bjstrattonIM: I certainly blame myself more
bjstrattonIM: Also true
TasselFoot: the aim thing with talisman bugs me as well.
bjstrattonIM: I have nothing to do tonight
bjstrattonIM: I might just go back through the thread - little as there is - and try to produce something of my own
TasselFoot: go for it. can't hurt.

*gap*

bjstrattonIM: Okay
bjstrattonIM: I found this from iggy
bjstrattonIM: "And you did the same stupid thing vash did where you sum up the obvious without puting any of your own input in. Something I find very wasteful."
bjstrattonIM: In response to blah posting some one-liner that had no relevance to anything
bjstrattonIM: And in reading through before that and looking at him
bjstrattonIM: He was doing that a lot himself >_>
bjstrattonIM: Stating the obvious and not really contributing anything meaningful
bjstrattonIM: Also Hans is making a ton of curt one-liners himself
bjstrattonIM: Actually reminds me of myself in a way >_>
bjstrattonIM: Shorter posts than I make, but more of them

The last part was me in the middle of page...4, I think. The rest of my thoughts, generated by reading the rest of the thread, are as follows.

I did notice iggy started making a few posts with more content, but his vote for Neo makes me linger with him still. Neo was making him a pretty easy target early on in the day. I know if I was a wolf, I would've gone after him, because I tend to go after weaker players who drop reasons for me to vote for them in my lap. (Chardish pointed this out several games ago.)

Hans didn't change much.

I still agree with Tass that the talisman thing is odd.

Someone I feel better about after reading through is Wilkin. Given his short history here, I have a feeling that if he were a wolf he would want to put more effort into the end of Day 1 than he did, if for no other reason than to present himself in a good light to the potentially judgemental crowd.

Tasuke I also feel better about because of how loltastic his posts were (I would think that if he was a wolf, he would be getting spoon-fed what to say), but he probably won't make too much of a difference either way.

And yes, I realize I haven't been Mr. Active myself and that I look pretty bad/stupid for being one of the three to vote for Fish.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

But anyways I think I said it in that convo that I have jumped down on the suspicion of mini

At the time I said that he was also my best bet. But after looking at a couple of other logics other's are starting to rise even though everything seems so narrowminded and/or too general.

I thought I would have gotten more discussion from what I posted about people being wolves. That was one of my reasons for doing that. But I guess you don't mind me stepping all over you XD. On a more realistic note I'm looking at: tass, talis, mini, maybe kilga, maybe wilkin as my wolf suspects. T and T because they haven't been wolfed (but perfect frame job also), mini because of reasons stated many times (though still weak and narrow theories at best) kilga is more of gut feeling from his first post, wilkin for contributing less than last game I remember him in (though same was said of me last game and I was human.) So still really nothing concret to go on in any case.

Another route to go on is inactivity, I mean since pretty much wolves have to be found by talking on AIM and posting, it gives them a huge advantage to just play on the fence and be ok. A lot of people fit this category also.

On another note, I was considering the thought that tass brought up about a wolf being in the 3 votes of fish. Normally I think this is true since if a wolf sees that a human is about to be lynched, he pushes it so that it happens. (fish got one more vote than mini did me thinks.) But since the wolves don't know each other, I could definitely see them playing it safe and voting safety votes so as to not accidently lynch a wolf. (which could explain why so many people got few votes, in addition to everyone not knowing much). But that also depends on how active the wolves talk to each other via their fake SN's.

I've got a couple more thoughts, but I'll let you chew on that for awhile. I came back from an Axis and Allies tourney and don't have too much thinking power left. (I got stuck with Russia... the worst and weakest of all five countries if you ask me.)

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

While Tass' idea of a wolf voting for Fish seems sound enough, one other thing has crossed my mind...

Gamepro. Now, I don't know him at all, and didn't even know he existed until Mead brought him in, but one thing I have noticed about replacements in the past is that their first or second post is usually something about their ideas on the last X pages. Assuming Gamepro was capable enough in the past to be brought in as a replacement, absence of anything worth reading from him is odd. All of his [two] posts consist of helplessness, asking for 15 people to IM him or just complaining about no one talking to him. I'm practically always on AIM, but just not always big on the talking, and I seem to get information fine by actually reading the thread.

Wat really makes it peculiar is the coincidence of Vash also being very inactive and unhelpful. If the V/G role is in fact a wolf, then they've been doing a fine job avoiding any suspicion.

Also, I found the idea that Iggy presented of the wolves safety voting interesting. Maybe we should bring up the list of people that seemed to make "random" votes (modified from Iggy's post on page 13):

Fish (3) - Kilga, Talis, Jurs
Afro (1) - Hans
Mini (2) - Fish, Iggy
Blah (1) - Afro
Hans (1) - Guido
Talis (1) - Blah
Gamepro (1) - Wilkin
Wilkin (1) - Tass
Kilga (1) - Tps
Tass (1) - Tasuke

What a list. Assuming Tass is correct in that one of the Fish voters is a wolf (possibly even the MW, as he would have nothing to fear since he knows who the other two wolves are), then it's almost certain that the other wolves are part of the single-voted crowd: Hans, Afro, Blah, Wilkin, Tass, Tasuke, plus Gamepro and Mini. If this is accurate, and we're assuming none of the wolf chats involved the MW hinting another to lynch Fish, then we have a pretty average list to choose from (one out of four being a wolf). That said, I will state my feelings on...

Hans. Inactive for the weekend (legitimately), and otherwise being more active than he was last game, even if his posts aren't anything substantial.

Afro. Seems to be acting pretty natural from what I remember from the past games. Don't know much more, though.

Blah. Nothing posted of large content, kind of playing the neutral, ignorant to the larger posts role.

Wilkin. You can only take my word that I'm not a wolf.

Tass. Acting pretty Tass-like. As of now, I'd like to wait a day to see how he reacts to the game.

Tasuke. Seems to be going under the radar at the moment, coming out pretty much only when Tass says something about him.

Gamepro. See above.

Mini. No idea. Leaning on the human side, though all of his recent posts have been a running debate between him and Iggy.

Voting ends in about three and a half hours (6:00), and there hasn't been a single vote made. Interesting. I will wait to see how the thread develops before making my decision.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

so I'm here... no real excuse (because I need an excuse?) for not posting in the last X hours or whatever. I did check the thread a few times but that's about it.

Anyway, my thoughts on people:

Tasselfoot - Unless he's playing a huge reverse psych game I don't see him going after guido, and probably not nforcer either. Lean towards human.

Talisman - human

nforcer - human

FishFishRevolution - human? or the master, a possibility I'm not going to rule out.

Afro - My number two suspicion yesterday. I didn't like the way he was defending other people (fish comes to mind) and in general looking like he was trying to stay in the background. But maybe that's just afro? Dunno, the human afro I always think of is the tireless human trying to get tass lynched all the time... not the guy that deliberately (deliberate meaning avoiding everyone everyone else was considering) votes for someone (blah) who would probably never let someone like nforcer be killed night one.

Tasuke - no clue. He IMed me once near the end of day one... it was a fairly short convo and I think all he really said was that tass always seemed suspicious to him.

Kilga - Either way really. I don't really buy the "one of the wolves had to have voted for fish" theory because, I mean, only three people voted for him. If like, five or six had, then yeah, I can see making that statement. But with only three I think it's not quite as statistically valid. (3 wolves 15 players you'd need five I think before you could even claim statistical support). But about kilga in general... I don't know. The first post could go either way, as others have mentioned. Would kilga wolf nforcer and guido? I don't know about that... if he were a wolf you'd have to assume that he was taking a really passive role in selecting the kills or something.

Wilkin - Don't really know about wilkin. Posting a bit less than he did before, not sure if that means anything, but it could.

Iggy - To me the way he's going so hard after mini seemed pretty human. He also seemed human to me just talking with him day one about making up a set of three questions, and he had some good original ideas that if I were a wolf I'd be hesitant to share, knowing they could be used against a fellow wolf.

Jursey - IMed me near the end of the day, was complaining about not knowing who to vote. I told her no one seemed to, that even tass had semi-random voted. She asked if it would be ok for her to vote for someone "just because he's a ***" or something like that and I think I said a more supported vote would be preferable. Nowhere in our brief convo did she mention fish, so she must have just picked that up from the thread I guess. Human or wolf I'm 50/50 on her, but keeping a close eye.

MiniNeo - the only thing about him that really made me consider him yesterday was the way he was talking about situations that the wolves, not knowing each other, would end up in... but that's fairly weak, and given his not voting and general unrestrained nature, I think I lean human now.

TPS - unless for some reason nforcer came to tps during night one and told him he [nforcer] was the interrogator tps is human.

Hans - a lot of short posts like kilga said, his first post seemed a bit eager, I dunno. I did agree with his vote though. Could go either way, but I think I lean wolf a little bit, depending on what I think of afro.

Guido - human

blah - gotta lean human on blah... he just would make those kills, unless he's finally cashing in on his reputation or something. He also seemed very human to me when we talked day one.

Vash/Gamepro - no posts = no clue. Also, I think this was already said, but gamepro if no one is talking to you maybe you should go out and talk to them...

And I was going to do a connections analysis here but I just realized it'd be worthless this game since the wolves don't know each other.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

Damn. Day ends today?

Is it just me, or is this game flying by without things happening?

Ugh.

I don't feel like making up a list thing, so I'll just say this: I agree with Talisman about most people. Few noteworthy exceptions:

Tass: definitely thinking human, but I don't see what Talisman means about Guido. Tass would kill him. And if he wouldn't, he'd kill him because he wouldn't kill him. That's why kills are an inneffective way of guessing the wolves.

Talisman: can't get much of a read off him. Seems normal. I'd think that Talisman is good enough to be normal while being a wolf though.

Jurs: That story about jurs sounds pretty bad in my opinion. Why would she go from not knowing who to vote for to voting on the winning guy in such a short amount of time? One would think she'd go for a safety vote, or at least put a vote on someone else with no votes who she thinks might be a wolf (see my vote and many other of the votes from yesterday).

blah: see Tass above for why someone's humanity cannot be proved based on kills that have been made. Definitely a good chance of being a wolf in my eyes. In fact, maybe the MW is a newb and chose nforcer/guido/whatever without consulting blah (that'd be a bad mistake in my opinion...), but yeah, that's definitely plausible. It's not so much that I think he's a wolf hardcore or something, it's that I'm dissappointed for people thinking that he's not a wolf because of it.

and of course me haha.

I don't see anything really worthy of a vote though. I'm going to put my vote to jurs for now (meaning it's subject to change if need be). Two reasons: insane innactivity with no talk of a replacement and this little thing talis said which I'll assume to be true.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

Well, I feel that with tass and blah at least it does count for something that they wouldn't normally kill guido or nforcer... and I did include caveat phrases like "unless he's [tass] playing a huge reverse-psych game" and "unless he's [blah] finally cashing in on his reputation."