TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Celirra]

tfw roundbox doesnt read

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Celirra

tfw roundbox doesnt read

It's 'cause he's a wolf, duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuh

[Charu]

Gott'em

[Daikyi]

but also to respond, if you think me as a wolf shoots prec with a 15% chance of succeeding as the 9th shot of that ITA phase where all other shots failed, then i guess that's your interpretation of risk/reward? I don't really subscribe to that train of thought.

also idk if you read my thing on prec right because i was doubting him before the ita, and you're saying "no progression before shot"? so i'm unsure where this logic is coming from

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Daikyi

but also to respond, if you think me as a wolf shoots prec with a 15% chance of succeeding as the 9th shot of that ITA phase where all other shots failed, then i guess that's your interpretation of risk/reward? I don't really subscribe to that train of thought.

also idk if you read my thing on prec right because i was doubting him before the ita, and you're saying "no progression before shot"? so i'm unsure where this logic is coming from

it was really just that one post against precarious as far as I could see

I can double check if you'd like

there might have been one before it but I didn't really see it as scathing

also, mentioning 9th shot after other shots failed is gambler's fallacy. can't really take that into consideration

[Celirra]

Fallacy fallacy btw

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Fallacy fallacy btw

not necessarily

I'm not discounting his whole argument because of it, just that small part

and yes, I do believe that daikyi had some things about precarious that made him bussable from a teammate standpoint

1. he had already used his roleblock
2. none of his other powers really had any utility
3. tforce and freezin were still alive, and since most of the events were FE based, accessing the secret shop for promotion didn't seem viable


of course, me voting daikyi here would be silly since this is completely circumstantial
there is zero proof that this happened
but hey, it's a narrative

[Celirra]

Narrative btw

[Daikyi]

Originally Posted by roundbox

it was really just that one post against precarious as far as I could see

I can double check if you'd like

there might have been one before it but I didn't really see it as scathing

also, mentioning 9th shot after other shots failed is gambler's fallacy. can't really take that into consideration

i like how you were bringing that up when celery was being like x% for y shots missed in a row oh wait
(i'm just being a butt, cel wasn't using it per reads)

but also you're (*quick google search*) assuming that i wasn't actually thinking about the independence of random events, and moreso on the massive sequences of misses beforehand, even up til now lol. however yeah i guess it's kinda nil in terms of a data point otherwise

===

regardless, the potential death chance imo is still something you're overlooking, as well as the fact that like, the ITA was basically a flip between ffa and prec. tbh i think i'm probably overfocusing on this because freezin earlier was like "daikyi never made any mechanical plays to determine alignment" and i kept thinking of the itas

[roundbox]

hey man it's not my fault people aren't pruning the old parts of the thread for evidence

I'm trying to create discussion and get things going

[Daikyi]

Originally Posted by roundbox

not necessarily

I'm not discounting his whole argument because of it, just that small part

and yes, I do believe that daikyi had some things about precarious that made him bussable from a teammate standpoint

1. he had already used his roleblock
2. none of his other powers really had any utility
3. tforce and freezin were still alive, and since most of the events were FE based, accessing the secret shop for promotion didn't seem viable


of course, me voting daikyi here would be silly since this is completely circumstantial
there is zero proof that this happened
but hey, it's a narrative

re 2: i found 0 emoticons after scrubbing prec's stuff, freezin pointed out the roleblock usage, the other two are:
[quote]
:’( makes the player that Neimi is quoting appear to visit the nightkill that the wolves make whenever Neimi chooses. Neimi must be alive for this action to be performed.
;_; gives Neimi control of the quoted player’s night action for the night phase immediately following the day phase that Neimi quoted the post. This action will fail if the targeted player is Vanilla Town or the targeted player cannot target another player with any action.
[quote]
i....don't think that's "0 utility" tbh, especially the last one

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

hey man it's not my fault people aren't pruning the old parts of the thread for evidence

I'm trying to create discussion and get things going

There's not much of you in the old parts...

I recall you were kicking and screaming when ITA's were introduced and you immediately suggested no one shoot a thing. Then changed it so only the trusted could shoot but nothing else.

Yes Roundbox, I haven't forgotten about your deeds those phases. And yes, I still think that was anti-town.

[Charu]

Okay, maybe not "kicking and screaming" but you were strongly against ITA's.

[Charu]

Cel was the same way, but at least Cel managed to agree that everyone should at least shoot, unlike you.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Charu

Okay, maybe not "kicking and screaming" but you were strongly against ITA's.

remember when Haku was alive

lmao

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Charu

Okay, maybe not "kicking and screaming" but you were strongly against ITA's.

remember when who_cares was alive

lmao

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

remember when who_cares was alive

lmao

This one was justified. Saying it wasn't is objectively wrong.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

remember when Haku was alive

lmao

This one however was a mistake because of 2 FE nerds getting scared when Haku lied.

Understandable, but also tragic.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Charu

I recall you were kicking and screaming when ITA's were introduced and you immediately suggested no one shoot a thing. Then changed it so only the trusted could shoot but nothing else.

Originally Posted by roundbox

listen man

clearly I'm getting your goose and you're falling for it

since guns have in-thread receipts, there's no way wolves can sneak through super easily
claimed roles should shoot imo

we have 3 people that fit this qualification. they're all town so we can trust them, and not randomly nominate some other person

Originally Posted by roundbox

hey fight me turds I'm in this game now whether you like it or not

coming up with a list is stupid as shit and I don't recommend it

it also takes accountability away from the wolves who are "just simply shooting" in the ITA against someone we called a worthy victim

ffs

Originally Posted by roundbox

MML makes a shot of his own discretion
Freezi makes a shot of his own discretion
DaBackpack makes a shot of his own discretion

anyone else is a BUTT

ah yes, this looks like me saying "nobody shoot a thing" and then moving to the trusted people shooting idea

just kidding, I never told people not to shoot a thing at all

[roundbox]

I still don't get how that behavior is anti-town, by the way