TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] - Page 29

Leon Kuwata · 06-18-2018, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kiyotaka Ishimaru

I want to sleep.

I’m willing to lynch mondo, the person that said fuck in two posts and said they would do more in their third, Leon, and maybe actually Aoi unless they make a recent post I like

I forget why you dislike me since my playtime this game has not been consistent

Yasuhiro Hagakure · 06-18-2018, 05:57 PM

PS. To whoever said for me to add them on PSN for Overwatch:
I don't play.

Sorry~

Kyoko Kirigiri · 06-18-2018, 06:01 PM

Sorry for ducking out yesterday; had to take someone to the hospital.

It looks like Chihiro's kind of the main topic of discussion, so currently reviewing their posts. Chihiro's hard to tone-read given that they seem to be roleplaying, but actual positions can leak through that. Here's what I see so far.

I made a case against Junko late in the day. At that time, I was the only person voting for Junko. The overall vote was very scattered. Seven players had active votes on them, five with one vote, and Aoi and Sayaka with two. Had things stayed the same, there would have been a coin flip between Aoi and Sayaka. Prior to any indicated movement, there was a weird sort of back-and-forth between Chihiro and Byakuya, where Byakuya indicated discomfort with sharing a wagon with Chihiro. To me, that suggests Byakuya was suspicious of Chihiro.

This kind of led into a messy situation that has been mostly ignored, probably because it was end-of-day and it's easier to focus on Chihiro's changed vote. In my opinion, neither Byakuya nor Chihiro looks especially good here. Byakuya was attacking someone who was—at least at this point—aligned with their vote. There was also the “if Sayaka flips town” post, which is never a good indicator, because it punishes someone for being wrong—and everyone is wrong in this game, frequently. At the same time, it could have just been Byakuya responding to what I perceive as suspicions by them toward Chihiro—and Chihiro's subsequent behavior was problematic.

Chihiro started to hedge when challenged. Even before #382, Chihiro was wavering, basically reading Sayaka as null. After I provided a recent case (obviously against Junko), Chihiro attached to that. Recency bias is a thing that no one's really immune to, probably, but it's hard to tell if Chihiro was really wavering on Sayaka, or just trying to move given Byakuya's pressure (and, since we have Sayaka's wolf flip, whether one or both wanted to vote anywhere else).

At this point, it was still Aoi-Sayaka, with miscellaneous 1 votes. At that point, prior to Chihiro moving, Kiyotaka voted Sayaka. This changed the vote count (briefly) to 3-Sayaka, 2 Aoi, 1 various. Shortly thereafter, Chihiro switched their vote, although their wavering was telegraphed (see #385). As an aside, the way things went down makes me lean town on Kiyotaka. Anyway, Chihiro switched to Junko with about a minute to go, creating a sudden three-way tie between Aoi, Sayaka, and Junko. No one else voted after, and the day ended 2:2:2.

Kyoko Kirigiri · 06-18-2018, 06:01 PM

The timing of the change is suspect, and the resolution (Sayaka was chance-lynched, and flipped wolf) is bad for Chihiro. It's one thing not to vote for a wolf, it's another to vote for them and then flip off their majority wagon with seconds to go.

Chihiro's flip is, at least superficially, consistent with their prior posts. The roleplaying aspect makes their general opinions sort of diluted, which is anti-town regardless of alignment, but there does appear to be some slight Aoi defense and a general preference for Sayaka over Aoi. Sayaka was still at risk of chance-lynch in a tie, so Chihiro didn't do the optimal pro-Sayaka move, which was flip to Aoi (which would have given Aoi three votes). However, given Chihiro's track record and the suddenness of that flip, it would have looked extremely suspicious.

I have trouble faulting someone for voting Junko; I started that wagon, precisely for the reasons I stated above my vote. And, Junko was the Acquisitioner, albeit I guess they swapped before being killed. So Chihiro's movement in and of itself isn't necessarily problematic.

What is a problem is that Sayaka flipped wolf, and although Junko flipped non-town, it was also non-wolf. Hence, a wolf would not have perceived Junko as an ally, so from the perspective of wolf-hunting, Junko's non-town status isn't ultra indicative. The timing, obviously, is also problematic. Even the initial placement (when not stuck to) is suspicious, because had the wagon never been realized, it could have been pointed to as a good vote later. But to me, the most relevant aspect was the conversation pre-flip between Chihiro and Byakuya. Rather than necessarily changing a vote to save a teammate, my read of Chihiro is more that the Byakuya's pressure led the to seek a different position. But Chihiro's own post history (see #341) indicates a familiarity with TWG here specifically and thus the game generally. So they should have known that such a flip would draw heat. That either suggests that saving attempting to save a teammate was worth the risk, or that the combination of ambivalence toward Sayaka, outward pressure on that vote, and a viable case elsewhere made them take a suspicious action.

Chihiro's posts today seem somewhat better, albeit still couched in annoying roleplay-talk. #447 at least hits upon several points they made on D1, which speaks to some continuity of thought, if nothing else. On the other hand, the vote on Leon feels overly convenient. Leon had already attracted a vote, and Chihiro's implicit reason for voting Leon was pro-Leon talk from Sayaka. But that's a pretty weak correlation, because any rational wolf would try to make their alliances more difficult to trace. However, Chihiro had addressed Leon in #257, then explicitly indicated suspicion in #377, so the vote is consistent with their claims.

Overall, Chihiro wouldn't be a terrible lynch option today. I'm not sure what to make of their deference to Byakuya--I'd read that as inexperience if not for the references elsewhere. But I'm not totally sold on Chihiro as a wolf--yet--because there does seem to be a measure of internal consistency to their play.

Kiyotaka Ishimaru · 06-18-2018, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon Kuwata

why is this happening
where they come from has no bearing on their alignment
this direction of questioning is useless and detrimental to town

what??

you completely read that wrong

i was saying Aoi was being weird for pointing out how they are at a disadvantage for being new, while knowing fine well they are not the newest player and thus not most disadvantaged in that sense

Mondo Owada · 06-18-2018, 06:10 PM

Kyoko is impossible for me to read but what's new am I right.
I mean that like they're writing with a thesaurus open. It's not fun. I can read them just fine in terms of they seem like they're trying too hard and thus appear to be maf. I also dislike how kyoko is approaching chihiro.

Kyoko Kirigiri · 06-18-2018, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makoto Naegi

In other news I was completely wrong about celestia. And the day ended earlier than I thought it would so I ended up not doing anything of consequence near the end.

Oops.

Don't care for this at all, but

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makoto Naegi

I mean it could have been a blatant attempt to bail out a partner but I'm not sure that's the most likely outcome yet

and

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makoto Naegi

If Chihiro ends up flipping wolf then aoi is lock town to me.

aren't so bad, although locks are difficult with an Acquisitioner. Of course, Makoto actually addresses this. This seems...sort of consistent with the "solve the game" pose from yesterday? Tonally, they seem similar as well, albeit less joke-sided. Nothing overtly wolfy here, although there's not a whole lot to go on. Honestly, I started parsing Makoto for tonal inconsistencies after seeing an Acqui sugestion, only to realize that it was Mukuro at question.

Yasuhiro Hagakure · 06-18-2018, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mondo Owada

KI also dislike how kyoko is approaching chihiro.

I'm just waiting for the catch-up and the "oh... fuck."

Aoi Asahina · 06-18-2018, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chihiro Fujisaki

Try pushing some lynches on people that might actually be wolves and I may change my mind...

Chihiro, how long will you be staying with us tonight? You said you "may change your mind" but you said you had to leave.

Also, I'm not the blocker.

Kyoko Kirigiri · 06-18-2018, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yasuhiro Hagakure

I'm just waiting for the catch-up and the "oh... fuck."

Would you care to point me to that and save me some time? Trying to read through everything super precisely when you're a day behind is time consuming.

Yasuhiro Hagakure · 06-18-2018, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kyoko Kirigiri

Would you care to point me to that and save me some time? Trying to read through everything super precisely when you're a day behind is time consuming.

Can do.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chihiro Fujisaki

I'm the Blocker and I blocked Leon...I think he's pretty wolfy and that there's a fair chance I blocked him making one of the wolf kills...I propose we lynch him...If we do and he flips wolf I will block Yasuhiro.

Sakura Ogami · 06-18-2018, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toko Fukawa

Would you care to try again perhaps?

Ok

toko

Lol!

**Xiz** · 06-18-2018, 06:35 PM

D2 Votecount:

Chihiro: (1) Byakuya
Leon: (2) Mukuro, Chihiro
Toko: (2) Hifumi, Sakura
Mondo: (1) Kiyotaka

Phase ends June 18th @9:00pm server
:59 = good
:00 = bad

Kyoko Kirigiri · 06-18-2018, 06:36 PM

Yeah, that's a pretty solid town claim. And given the consistent roleplay tone and related knowledge, it's pretty safe to say they weren't Acquired.

Guess I'm reviewing Leon next.

Yasuhiro Hagakure · 06-18-2018, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiz

D2 Votecount:

Chihiro: (1) Byakuya
Leon: (2) Mukuro, Chihiro
Toko: (2) Hifumi, Sakura
Mondo: (1) Kiyotaka

Phase ends June 18th @9:00pm server
:59 = good
:00 = bad

Based off of last day's end votes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiz

End of D1 Votecount:

Aoi: (2) Celestia, Mundo
Kiyotaka: (1) Hifumi
Byakuya: (1) Junko
Sayaka: (2) Byakuya, Kiyotaka
Celestia: (1) Makoto
Junko: (2) Kyoko, Chihiro

Unvote: Sakura

Phase ends June 15th @9:00pm server
:59 = good
:00 = bad

Might be worth noting both Leon and Toko have phantoms.

Yasuhiro Hagakure · 06-18-2018, 06:40 PM

Kiyotaka, what's your reasoning for voting Mondo right now?

Yasuhiro Hagakure · 06-18-2018, 06:45 PM

Also, partially for safety, partially because hopeful pressure later, partially because holy-fuck-silent:
Hifumi

3 posts. 2 votes. 1 for a joke(?), the other with no context. Phantom dodge game on point tho.

**Xiz** · 06-18-2018, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiz

Day: (16) 72 -> (15)48 -> (6)24
Night: 24 hours
Out Of Thread Talk: OFF
Instalynch: ON
Phantom: OFF
Game Type: Anonymous
Deck: Danganropa characters
Replacements: After D1 OFF

See above

Aoi Asahina · 06-18-2018, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mukuro Ikusaba

Also Mondo seems like he has a good grasp of who's Villa and who isn't so probs trust the guy with YOUR LIFE because he has his shit down. S+ WOULD RANK HIGHLY

Mukuro, why do you think this? What makes you think he has a good grasp of who town is?

Kiyotaka Ishimaru · 06-18-2018, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yasuhiro Hagakure

Kiyotaka, what's your reasoning for voting Mondo right now?

iso them and tell me what you think

in particular:

digging into Aoi and wanting discussion to revolve around it

them asking about wolf chat and going on about it and easily accepting no day chat

them omgus'ing me and retracting it very soon after

apparently me being sus of them is bad

concluding that a wolfing was blocked and identity wolf got celestia because they were 'obvious' (also note that I also don't like them trying to identify people)

also being dumb and saying 'celestia' looks good to them when celestia was wolfed

06-18-2018, 05:57 PM	#562
Yasuhiro Hagakure FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 42 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] PS. To whoever said for me to add them on PSN for Overwatch: I don't play. Sorry~

06-18-2018, 06:01 PM	#563
Kyoko Kirigiri FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 51 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] Sorry for ducking out yesterday; had to take someone to the hospital. It looks like Chihiro's kind of the main topic of discussion, so currently reviewing their posts. Chihiro's hard to tone-read given that they seem to be roleplaying, but actual positions can leak through that. Here's what I see so far. I made a case against Junko late in the day. At that time, I was the only person voting for Junko. The overall vote was very scattered. Seven players had active votes on them, five with one vote, and Aoi and Sayaka with two. Had things stayed the same, there would have been a coin flip between Aoi and Sayaka. Prior to any indicated movement, there was a weird sort of back-and-forth between Chihiro and Byakuya, where Byakuya indicated discomfort with sharing a wagon with Chihiro. To me, that suggests Byakuya was suspicious of Chihiro. This kind of led into a messy situation that has been mostly ignored, probably because it was end-of-day and it's easier to focus on Chihiro's changed vote. In my opinion, neither Byakuya nor Chihiro looks especially good here. Byakuya was attacking someone who was—at least at this point—aligned with their vote. There was also the “if Sayaka flips town” post, which is never a good indicator, because it punishes someone for being wrong—and everyone is wrong in this game, frequently. At the same time, it could have just been Byakuya responding to what I perceive as suspicions by them toward Chihiro—and Chihiro's subsequent behavior was problematic. Chihiro started to hedge when challenged. Even before #382, Chihiro was wavering, basically reading Sayaka as null. After I provided a recent case (obviously against Junko), Chihiro attached to that. Recency bias is a thing that no one's really immune to, probably, but it's hard to tell if Chihiro was really wavering on Sayaka, or just trying to move given Byakuya's pressure (and, since we have Sayaka's wolf flip, whether one or both wanted to vote anywhere else). At this point, it was still Aoi-Sayaka, with miscellaneous 1 votes. At that point, prior to Chihiro moving, Kiyotaka voted Sayaka. This changed the vote count (briefly) to 3-Sayaka, 2 Aoi, 1 various. Shortly thereafter, Chihiro switched their vote, although their wavering was telegraphed (see #385). As an aside, the way things went down makes me lean town on Kiyotaka. Anyway, Chihiro switched to Junko with about a minute to go, creating a sudden three-way tie between Aoi, Sayaka, and Junko. No one else voted after, and the day ended 2:2:2.

06-18-2018, 06:01 PM	#564
Kyoko Kirigiri FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 51 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] The timing of the change is suspect, and the resolution (Sayaka was chance-lynched, and flipped wolf) is bad for Chihiro. It's one thing not to vote for a wolf, it's another to vote for them and then flip off their majority wagon with seconds to go. Chihiro's flip is, at least superficially, consistent with their prior posts. The roleplaying aspect makes their general opinions sort of diluted, which is anti-town regardless of alignment, but there does appear to be some slight Aoi defense and a general preference for Sayaka over Aoi. Sayaka was still at risk of chance-lynch in a tie, so Chihiro didn't do the optimal pro-Sayaka move, which was flip to Aoi (which would have given Aoi three votes). However, given Chihiro's track record and the suddenness of that flip, it would have looked extremely suspicious. I have trouble faulting someone for voting Junko; I started that wagon, precisely for the reasons I stated above my vote. And, Junko was the Acquisitioner, albeit I guess they swapped before being killed. So Chihiro's movement in and of itself isn't necessarily problematic. What is a problem is that Sayaka flipped wolf, and although Junko flipped non-town, it was also non-wolf. Hence, a wolf would not have perceived Junko as an ally, so from the perspective of wolf-hunting, Junko's non-town status isn't ultra indicative. The timing, obviously, is also problematic. Even the initial placement (when not stuck to) is suspicious, because had the wagon never been realized, it could have been pointed to as a good vote later. But to me, the most relevant aspect was the conversation pre-flip between Chihiro and Byakuya. Rather than necessarily changing a vote to save a teammate, my read of Chihiro is more that the Byakuya's pressure led the to seek a different position. But Chihiro's own post history (see #341) indicates a familiarity with TWG here specifically and thus the game generally. So they should have known that such a flip would draw heat. That either suggests that saving attempting to save a teammate was worth the risk, or that the combination of ambivalence toward Sayaka, outward pressure on that vote, and a viable case elsewhere made them take a suspicious action. Chihiro's posts today seem somewhat better, albeit still couched in annoying roleplay-talk. #447 at least hits upon several points they made on D1, which speaks to some continuity of thought, if nothing else. On the other hand, the vote on Leon feels overly convenient. Leon had already attracted a vote, and Chihiro's implicit reason for voting Leon was pro-Leon talk from Sayaka. But that's a pretty weak correlation, because any rational wolf would try to make their alliances more difficult to trace. However, Chihiro had addressed Leon in #257, then explicitly indicated suspicion in #377, so the vote is consistent with their claims. Overall, Chihiro wouldn't be a terrible lynch option today. I'm not sure what to make of their deference to Byakuya--I'd read that as inexperience if not for the references elsewhere. But I'm not totally sold on Chihiro as a wolf--yet--because there does seem to be a measure of internal consistency to their play.

06-18-2018, 06:10 PM	#566
Mondo Owada FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 59 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] Kyoko is impossible for me to read but what's new am I right. I mean that like they're writing with a thesaurus open. It's not fun. I can read them just fine in terms of they seem like they're trying too hard and thus appear to be maf. I also dislike how kyoko is approaching chihiro.

06-18-2018, 06:35 PM	#573
Xiz TWG Chaos Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Cali4nia Age: 32 Posts: 3,399	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] D2 Votecount: Chihiro: (1) Byakuya Leon: (2) Mukuro, Chihiro Toko: (2) Hifumi, Sakura Mondo: (1) Kiyotaka Phase ends June 18th @9:00pm server :59 = good :00 = bad __________________

06-18-2018, 06:36 PM	#574
Kyoko Kirigiri FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 51 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] Yeah, that's a pretty solid town claim. And given the consistent roleplay tone and related knowledge, it's pretty safe to say they weren't Acquired. Guess I'm reviewing Leon next.

06-18-2018, 06:40 PM	#576
Yasuhiro Hagakure FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 42 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] Kiyotaka, what's your reasoning for voting Mondo right now?

06-18-2018, 06:45 PM	#577
Yasuhiro Hagakure FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2018 Age: 42 Posts: 0	Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread] Also, partially for safety, partially because hopeful pressure later, partially because holy-fuck-silent: Hifumi 3 posts. 2 votes. 1 for a joke(?), the other with no context. Phantom dodge game on point tho.

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