01-25-2017, 03:52 AM | #121 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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but if he is wrong, it doesn't matter because he killed a human anyways, and this logic is so easily defensible from his perspective that it doesn't matter and he can make this lazy play and walk away with a vote on me for the rest of the phase
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01-25-2017, 03:56 AM | #122 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
i think the bigger thing here is this play is profoundly lazy and would make a wolves life much easier later because he doesn't have much to defend while killing a human.
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01-25-2017, 04:05 AM | #123 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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On the other hand, even a 30% to strike it rich (successfully impersonating the seer) would be favorable odds if the consequence of getting called out is just temporary suspicion that you talk yourself out of while learning the identity of the seer. Like, wolf V at this point would be pretty close to walking home Scott-free after carrying out such a risky mission behind enemy lines.
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01-25-2017, 04:05 AM | #124 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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The seer this game is pretty gimped, anyways. We have 100 different colours (hyperbole) that could correspond to any alignment, or a semi-nightly alignment check. Seer is pretty nerfed right now compared to a normal game and that only really increases my willingness to drop a 1:1 seer:wolf trade. Also, at the very least, this is inciting a ton of discussion and it's nice to have people critically posting because it gives us a chance to go full English major on them. |
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01-25-2017, 04:07 AM | #125 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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01-25-2017, 04:10 AM | #126 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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are you seeing more complexity and intent in the situation than it merits? the answer is yes but you have to ask yourself that before getting deeper and deeper in the rabbit hole of contingencies as each last incriminating thing you thought about me ends up panning out
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01-25-2017, 04:12 AM | #127 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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01-25-2017, 04:20 AM | #128 | ||
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
For you, I honestly don't need any of your other posts. Your entrance post is enough for me right now.
To use a word that I know you like to put in posts to make someone else seem wolfy, this reeks of cop claim, not hypocop. It's very matter of fact with no mention of hypocop or any indication that anyone else should. If you're trying to defend yourself as if you set up a hypocop strat, then why is your original claim completely devoid of it? Quote:
The whole last two pages since lito called you out have been you backpedaling as hard as you possibly could to deflect heat away from yourself, but that shit isn't going to fly. I actually like shado's last point that I'm just going to quote it instead of trying to think up some alternate way of saying it myself. Quote:
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01-25-2017, 04:24 AM | #129 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
I should add that this is a solid game for the seer to just come out point blank. The wolves have to invest a ton of resources that they probably don't even have to try taking killing it and even then it isn't guaranteed because an equally low probability guardian could sacrifice the seer's power for one night to protect them and fuck the wolves over.
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01-25-2017, 04:24 AM | #130 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
you should read me other psots
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01-25-2017, 04:24 AM | #131 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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01-25-2017, 04:25 AM | #132 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
It turns out that in a game where we have to assume that all of the wolf special roles are present and acting competently, the wolves also need to assume that all human roles are present and acting competently.
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01-25-2017, 04:25 AM | #133 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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Enough of that, though. I'm beginning to repeat myself. You brought up a point I wanted to get back to: You keep saying your actions have their own acronym, but the only acronym you've brought up is SHC. In a game like this, how would RSing SHC anyone, and who were you trying to seerhunt clear by fakeclaiming/roleswapping seer?
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01-25-2017, 04:30 AM | #134 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
Have any specific post you're trying to allude to, because I've read your entire wall of backpedaling. It amounts to "Oh shit, lito's the real seer. Guys, I was just joking I'm actually a human and I was faking seer so that we could clear a human in a game where it would be unbelievably foolish for wolves to waste valuable resources that may not even exist in taking out a VT."
Am I missing anything, or should I dig a little deeper? |
01-25-2017, 04:31 AM | #135 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
balance of probability suggests vigi because wolves have the ability to collaborate and 3-4 people talking about who to target might illicit details about someones meta and who they are more likely to pick out, additionally not all wolf roles are red only 1/3rd of them, so given a high-red scenario its 2/16 wolf roles and 1/16 human roles that are red. wolves with their combined information are going to try to pick someone who they don't think will target one of them, theyn know they can die with their choice so this is the primary point of discussion they would have on night one -- at least one might have enough knowledge of meta to select a viable target that wouldnt pick a wolf, and this is what they will obviously anchor to, someone who would select an ally that isn't one of them, as best they can
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01-25-2017, 04:32 AM | #136 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
"Also it was a bad idea for lito to actually come out as seer even though I did that right before him with no mention of strategizing seer claims."
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01-25-2017, 04:33 AM | #137 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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it's still clear you haven't understood it but i basically point out that there was only a 40% best-case chance i wouldn't be wrong (and known by another player to be wrong) before considering picking lito, which introduces a second compound chance of being wrong (37.5% on average) of calling someone a vanillager who wasn't.
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01-25-2017, 04:38 AM | #138 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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See how numbers can get thrown around like that? I'm really surprised you're so adamant that a vigi died last night when the game is so mystery that we could stack it in either direction by changing any of the numbers above. |
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01-25-2017, 04:38 AM | #139 |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
i never said it was a bad idea for lito to come out as seer. in fact i said it didn't matter after thinking about it. does it matter? am i missing something or is lito less vulnerable coming out?
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01-25-2017, 04:39 AM | #140 | |
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Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD
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