TWG 150: Undertale

[TWG Mad Dummy]

Originally Posted by TWG Napstablook

You've bounced your vote on most of the unconfirmeds today minus Papyrus..I honestly think it's fairly odd you've had next to nothing to say about Papyrus despite having plenty of thoughts on everyone else in the lynch pool.



Of course I am, that's what I do.
I barely participated in D0 so nobody.
I don't honestly recall D1 but pretty sure there wasn't anyone.
Don't really see any relevance lol

You got anything to say about Papyrus? Because I don't. We decided we were ok with people doing what he's been doing when we killed people other than Doggo or him tbh.

Its ok if you don't see the relevance.

[TWG Napstablook]

Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy

You got anything to say about Papyrus? Because I don't. We decided we were ok with people doing what he's been doing when we killed people other than Doggo or him tbh.

Its ok if you don't see the relevance.

I didn't decide shit, Doggo made no attempt to be here so I figured he'd get replaced or modkilled. Pap has been here to some extent each phase just steadily coasting through supporting lynch trains here and there. I mean how do you /not/ have anything to say about him? That's actually curious.

[TWG Mad Dummy]

because I've only made it so far in my reread and I haven't gotten to the point where he's actually doing shit

if I have to say one thing I guess I like that he wants to kill Undyne and that he's been looking at possible pairings, but its not very much

[TWG Tsunderplane]

i'm not sure how much i like relying on pairings to the point of "if one flips this color, lynch the other" especially when we're getting close to the end of the game one way or another

i'm not saying this because papyrus suggested killing me based on someone's flip, i'm more worried about how we almost did this to temmie/muffet and the lucky as fuck oracle flip saved us from losing a monster

[TWG Tsunderplane]

basically if wasn't for the oracle we would've lynched two monsters because everyone was certain one of them was human and if we do that again at this stage in the game we would lose

[TWG Mad Dummy]

I don't think I have a solid grasp on the game at this point.

Papyrus is running through pairings, I don't really see anything that stops me from making any pairing other than Papyrus/Undyne.

Maybe Undyne is the best kill here... they made a lot of showy posts about being sure that they can find the humans, but hasn't followed up on it at all. I initially liked their vote at the end of d0, but its rather clear that they've had that as their plan the whole time, so its null at best.

Idk I feel kind of burnt out after last night and today. I don't really know where to go after Undyne depending on the flip, I'd probably just continue to reevaluate.

I really hate how Tsunder is reading Napsta
I really hate how Papyrus is reading me
I somewhat hate Napsta's confidence that they won't die but that's a different point that I'm trying not to go crazy over

Unless Undyne literally blows my mind if they come back, I'm probably not moving.

[TWG Mad Dummy]

tl;dr I'm pretty fucking out of it at this point and I think as a defense of my sanity I'm just going to not try to figure anything else out as of right now

I think Undyne is a good kill is basically all I feel like I have rn.

[TWG Tsunderplane]

what's the current vote count

i want to put my vote on undyne since i definitely agree that they're the best lynch but i also don't want to get close to insta

[TWG Papyrus]

Originally Posted by TWG Tsunderplane

i'm not sure how much i like relying on pairings to the point of "if one flips this color, lynch the other" especially when we're getting close to the end of the game one way or another

i'm not saying this because papyrus suggested killing me based on someone's flip, i'm more worried about how we almost did this to temmie/muffet and the lucky as fuck oracle flip saved us from losing a monster

okay, look:
right now, i (as well as you, dummy, and napsta) have only 6 human pairs to consider, as there are only 4 potential humans left. that's certainly few enough for me to analyze each pair individually and make decisions based off of that. in addition, by choosing X and Y among them and saying "let's lynch X, then Y if X flips green", i am guaranteed to hit a human in all of those pairs except one. on that note:

Originally Posted by TWG Tsunderplane

basically if wasn't for the oracle we would've lynched two monsters because everyone was certain one of them was human and if we do that again at this stage in the game we would lose

if everyone follows my lead by lynching undyne followed by napsta if she flips green, then the only way we lose is if the humans are exactly you and mad dummy
do you want me to think that?

now you are right that a binary approach was less effective yesterday: with 7 non-clears, there were 21 potential human pairs for each of us, 10 of which did not contain either muffet or temmie
however, at this point it is a very effective strategy for each of us to pick one pair of non-clears that is definitely not the human pair, since statistically speaking one of the other two must be a human if we are right
approaching the game by looking at pairs only gets more effective statistically as the game progresses, not less

[TWG Mad Dummy]

Originally Posted by TWG Tsunderplane

what's the current vote count

i want to put my vote on undyne since i definitely agree that they're the best lynch but i also don't want to get close to insta

I think only myself and Papyrus are voting for them, I could be wrong. Alphys has an unvote and idk if Temmie, Undyne, Napsta or you have ever voted.

[TWG Papyrus]

you do have the right to be concerned about me saying "if undyne flips red i'm going to want you lynched next" but that's certainly more up for debate

[TWG Tsunderplane]

Originally Posted by TWG Papyrus

if everyone follows my lead by lynching undyne followed by napsta if she flips green, then the only way we lose is if the humans are exactly you and mad dummy
do you want me to think that?

now you are right that a binary approach was less effective yesterday: with 7 non-clears, there were 21 potential human pairs for each of us, 10 of which did not contain either muffet or temmie
however, at this point it is a very effective strategy for each of us to pick one pair of non-clears that is definitely not the human pair, since statistically speaking one of the other two must be a human if we are right
approaching the game by looking at pairs only gets more effective statistically as the game progresses, not less

okay that actually makes way more sense when you put it that way

i was getting nervous since we're basically down to the point where if we lynch two more humans we are completely fucked

[TWG Mad Dummy]

Originally Posted by TWG Papyrus

you do have the right to be concerned about me saying "if undyne flips red i'm going to want you lynched next" but that's certainly more up for debate

what do you think the most likely team is pending the different potential flips from Undyne?

[TWG Tsunderplane]

Originally Posted by TWG Papyrus

you do have the right to be concerned about me saying "if undyne flips red i'm going to want you lynched next" but that's certainly more up for debate

i just want to win the game for the monsters and getting lynched and having a human victory because of a pair strategy that hinged on someone unrelated flipping red would infuriate me to no end

[TWG Tsunderplane]

i also don't like the thought of someone who's not a confirmed blue (alphys is as confirmed as it's going to get at this point) leading the charge and everyone following blindly behind them since that tends to end badly for the town team

[TWG Tsunderplane]

Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy

I think only myself and Papyrus are voting for them, I could be wrong. Alphys has an unvote and idk if Temmie, Undyne, Napsta or you have ever voted.

i have not voted for anyone yet this phase

[TWG Papyrus]

Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy

what do you think the most likely team is pending the different potential flips from Undyne?

tsundyne if undyne flips vanilla human- i don't think napsta would've ignored anything undyne-related for a phase and a half in this scenario if he didn't have some semblance of a cushion (i.e being the roleblocker) to work with
napstadyne if undyne flips roleblocker- you seem to want undyne dead and plane seems okay with it, neither of which are what i would expect the last human to be in this case
nappy plane if undyne flips monster- i'd like to think i'm townreading you correctly

[TWG Mad Dummy]

Originally Posted by TWG Papyrus

nappy plane if undyne flips monster- i'd like to think i'm townreading you correctly

I get that my jrodd impression is very different from how I've been playing this game and that I haven't had a wolf game for you to reference on FFR in a very, very long time but I'm very surprised you're this sure of yourself on me. I suppose I am more grateful than not, but I guess I'm confused about why you're so sure on me.

[TWG Napstablook]

Originally Posted by TWG Papyrus

tsundyne if undyne flips vanilla human- i don't think napsta would've ignored anything undyne-related for a phase and a half in this scenario if he didn't have some semblance of a cushion (i.e being the roleblocker) to work with
napstadyne if undyne flips roleblocker- you seem to want undyne dead and plane seems okay with it, neither of which are what i would expect the last human to be in this case
nappy plane if undyne flips monster- i'd like to think i'm townreading you correctly

I don't like how dummy is entirely left out of these pairings.
Are you that confident in your read on him?

[TWG Undyne]

Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy

I hate the last part of this post, I guess, solely because there hasn't been any follow-up

I came in last night to scumhunt and got hit by the fucking "The server is too busy at the moment. Please try again later."

But don't worry, I'm about to deliver.