TWG LXXXVII: Cloverfield

[Afrobean]

Not saying A2P is a bad choice since unless I'm mistaken, the person he replaced fit my pool of suspects as well, but I do want to say this:

I don't think being replaced has any real bearing on role. I don't think them being replaced should have any effect on whether you think they are a wolf or not. You may think "oh he probably was just a bored human", but he never said reasons for withdrawing. Unless he talks and gives his reason as "bored, didn't want to play anymore" (which I don't think is a legit reason to drop out of the game), you have no right to levy this against A2P. I am curious what your reasons are for giving such "precise" statistical analysis of 40% though. I really don't like when people make up fake numbers...

ps im at work now, but i am on aim. Plan on being there all night.

[FictionJunction]

hey guys let's vote for player x for arbitrary reason y

[FictionJunction]

sounds like a good idea

someone

[Afrobean]

I heard from a little bird that ruritsu is thinking it'd be a good idea to lynch iggy.

How on earth could iggy be a wolf? If gun was the seer and iggy knew it and stole his identity? How could iggy know gun was the seer if gun wouldn't even have known he was the seer until after he died (roles weren't revealed until day 1 began)? This would require MAJOR balls on the part of iggy to chance that the night 1 kill was seer, major balls of the not-worth-the-risk variety.

The only other alternative is if iggy was seer'd green during night 1 and is MW, then the real seer came out to iggy and asked him to fake seer due to fear, laze, or incompetence.

Let's talk about this. Reasonably and openly, and I will explain to you with all my ability why these two scenarios are not at all possible.

ps I honestly would like to say that even after iggy protecting ruritsu yesterday, I am in favor of lynching him now.

[Temote]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Not saying A2P is a bad choice since unless I'm mistaken, the person he replaced fit my pool of suspects as well, but I do want to say this:

I don't think being replaced has any real bearing on role. I don't think them being replaced should have any effect on whether you think they are a wolf or not. You may think "oh he probably was just a bored human", but he never said reasons for withdrawing. Unless he talks and gives his reason as "bored, didn't want to play anymore" (which I don't think is a legit reason to drop out of the game), you have no right to levy this against A2P..

The way that Freaky subbed out is pretty much why I've been thinking A2P is a human. He pretty much only sits down and plays the game if he's either a blue or a red. As a matter of fact, he usually uses the same excuse every time he subs out, "school, life, etc. plus twg sucks". I'm curious why he's in both of your list of suspects, though (granted, you two haven't played with freaky before and might not notice this).

I am curious what your reasons are for giving such "precise" statistical analysis of 40% though. I really don't like when people make up fake numbers..

40% is roughly where I'd consider the odds of hitting a wolf at random are at the moment.

Ten players left, three wolves left, Iggy knows who the psychic is, and then excludes himself. Three out of eight players is about 37.5%, right? Adding in anyone who he's seered green would raise that percentage even more.

P.S. I still don't know why anyone would snipe Bolth at all. Iggy, are there any players that knew you were going to seer him that phase?

[Viccica]

I think it's just Ruritsu trying to think of something for lack of anything better, personally... We haven't been making any headway.



At this point I think it's more important to bring people like afro, fic and such into question. The wolves have the humans running in circles at this point. Can we establish order please?





I also think iggy fails as a seer, no offense... Why haven't you been seering more useful targets? For example.. people actively posting?

[Viccica]

Reasons for wanting afro and fic questioned:

1- They've both been active and, maybe not quite argumentative, but certainly confrontational.

2- They're both experienced players who I feel can be very manipulative.

3- We've had plenty of games before where someone we thought was confirmed turned out to be wolf. Two being the last two games.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Temote

The way that Freaky subbed out is pretty much why I've been thinking A2P is a human. He pretty much only sits down and plays the game if he's either a blue or a red. As a matter of fact, he usually uses the same excuse every time he subs out, "school, life, etc. plus twg sucks". I'm curious why he's in both of your list of suspects, though (granted, you two haven't played with freaky before and might not notice this).

My "suspect list" is more like "everyone who isn't x" where x is the people I think are human.

If what you say is true, then I'm inclined to side with you, but I will say that it's TOTAL bull**** if you guys keep letting this ****er sign up if he just quits in the middle if he's not blue or red.

P.S. I still don't know why anyone would snipe Bolth at all. Iggy, are there any players that knew you were going to seer him that phase?

I would have vigi'd bolth if I could have. I was actually looking forward to lynching the dude today. Obviously iggy was of similar thought patterns since he thought he was worth seering, although I will say that iggy sucks at seering picks... he should have seer'd someone else and we should have just indiscriminately lynched bolth today. Seriously iggy, you shouldn't waste your seerings on people who are likely to be immediately lynched regardless. You seer people who are FAR from being lynched, yet still look like they might be red.

And Temote: good insight on actually considering the numbers. I didn't even think about it, but looking at it from my perspective TOTAL RANDOM chance would give me about 40% chance at nabbing a wolf too. And that's WITHOUT excluding the people that I'm quite sure are human (other than iggy). For iggy... it must be more like... ****, something like 50%+ random chance, assuming he removes the blues and people he's seer'd green.

@ viccica: There's a reason I haven't had any pressure on me and if you and your wolf buddies weren't totally blind it'd be obvious to you all.

Can't speak as such for fiction, but seriously.

THAT is your plan, your reason for me being alive at this point? Say "we need to look at him because he is alive and active"? REALLY? AND you defend ruritsu? The dude thinks we should lynch OUR ****ING ALLIANCE LEADING SEER, and you defend the dude? I mean, naturally, you didn't agree with the position, but you STOOD UP FOR THE DUDE and that just reeks of trying to take a little heat off your partner without overtly siding with them.

Ok, so of the 4 wolves, we have bolth, ruritsu and viccica. Who is number 4? Redherring maybe? Guess there's still an outside shot at temote, fiction, roundbox, a2p, or makilaz too, but I think I'm going to make my call on ruritsu, viccica and redherring being the last 3. What do you guys think?

I think I should read back through the thread and look at the posts of bolth plus my 3 heavy suspects.

[RedHerring]

I'm sorry Afro, but I'm not a wolf.

Well, my actual suspects are:

-Ruritsu
-Fiction
-Maybe Viccica. I still must fill this one.

Now...

I say we should lynch Ruritsu this phase. If he isn't a wolf, then we should reconsiderate our suspicions as well.

[Afrobean]

Recommend everyone goes back and re-reads the thread, bearing in mind that Bolth was a wolf, manti was human, ac1 was human, and emerald was human.

Doing this myself and it's giving me interesting perspective on potential wolves. Pay attention to how the people I've identified act together, particularly viccica and ruritsu.

ps Red: high five, bro. Actually, in reading the thread again, my suspicion on you waned almost completely, and seeing you agree with me takes it away completely.

[FictionJunction]

I'll be honest here. I've been lobbying hard against iggy the past day and a half and eventually came about information that has been confirmed by others that have been in contact with iggy, etc

I spoke with three people. Ruritsu was not one of these people.
As far as I'm concerned, I would have been set for lynch long ago by iggy and prosecuted by arfo if they seriously consider me as a wolf suspect.
Now that this green insurgence has a source other than myself I've begun to worry about the legitemacy of my claims.

[Afrobean]

lol

Going to put my vote to ruritsu. Painfully obvious after all the things I saw while re-reading the thread. Viccica seems pretty obvious too if I'm right about ruritsu. The only X factor is the 4th wolf. Bit of a hunch, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

edu: who were the other people distrustful of iggy? Throw me a PM please if you don't want to publicly implicate them. Knowing of at least one of them, probably is better to privately tell it.

[A2P]

viccica, because of his last two posts.

[edubardus]

actually, I don't know where vicc is coming from but arfo and I are on pretty good terms =(

>arfo no. This is my social experiment >=|

[Makilaz]

Ruritsu. I agree that Iggy is being extremely frustrating with how he's going about leading an alliance. But it's not enough to where he should be lynched for it.

[Viccica]

Afro, can I ask why you're shouting wolf to anyone who questions you? Seems like you go back and forth alot twisting everything to suit your own purposes. So.. what makes me a wolf?

Just out of curiosity.



I wasn't accusing anyone. I was just making a note.





A2P, I'm not a guy.

Dammit.






Also, I'm not working with anyone this game, really. Go around and ask if anyone has talked to me at all. Seen me on AIM much at all? Probably not. Because I haven't been.

[Ruritsu]

'Sup dog, I heard you like making accusations, so I put rope in your car so you can lynch humans while you drive.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I heard from a little bird that ruritsu is thinking it'd be a good idea to lynch iggy.

I never said anything about a lynch.

How on earth could iggy be a wolf? If gun was the seer and iggy knew it and stole his identity? How could iggy know gun was the seer if gun wouldn't even have known he was the seer until after he died (roles weren't revealed until day 1 began)? This would require MAJOR balls on the part of iggy to chance that the night 1 kill was seer, major balls of the not-worth-the-risk variety.

Saying it literally cannot be? Or just unlikely?

The only other alternative is if iggy was seer'd green during night 1 and is MW, then the real seer came out to iggy and asked him to fake seer due to fear, laze, or incompetence.

Let's talk about this. Reasonably and openly, and I will explain to you with all my ability why these two scenarios are not at all possible.

ps I honestly would like to say that even after iggy protecting ruritsu yesterday, I am in favor of lynching him now.

They're both possible, just hellishly unlikely.

Pay attention to how the people I've identified act together, particularly viccica and ruritsu.

Act together? I've not spoken with with the exception of just now. I've asked others if they have.

Originally Posted by Vicc

Also, I'm not working with anyone this game, really. Go around and ask if anyone has talked to me at all. Seen me on AIM much at all? Probably not. Because I haven't been.

Lulz, I guess I'm not the only one.

I spoke with three people. Ruritsu was not one of these people.
As far as I'm concerned, I would have been set for lynch long ago by iggy and prosecuted by arfo if they seriously consider me as a wolf suspect.
Now that this green insurgence has a source other than myself I've begun to worry about the legitemacy of my claims.

Fic, after talking with you (You remember, no?) I spoke with Iggy, Mak, and roundbox, I shifted toward your view, that Iggy may be red, based on his unwillingness to give me anything other than "I am the almighty seer, follow all that I say without question!". I got a little sick of talking to him and ultimately decided there was a chance you were right, I discussed this with Round, who seemed apathetic, and Mak, who told me essentially what he did in his last post. I didn't like the way he was holding info, and whats more, the way he was choosing lynches, in retrospect, maybe this wasn't the best thing to base a theory on, but oh well, too late.


Now, IGGY, get on AIM RIGHT NOW so I can solve this mess! I see you viewing the thread. AIM. 2 Min. Do it.

[Viccica]

Also, I wasn't defending Ruritsu. I just can see where he's coming from. It wouldn't be a bad move for wolves to claim seer, counterclaim, both people die. Would be a long shot, but longshots have proven to work out nicely in the past.

I wasn't saying lynch iggy, nor will I say lynch iggy. <.<






Afro, you're jumping down my throat off of baseless accusations. I just think at this point, it'd be good to look into more experienced players. Not only to weed through potential wolf suspects, but also to potentially strengthen our alliance. I never said anything about a lynch on anyone. Just to work on gathering more information.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

although I will say that iggy sucks at seering picks...

I already said this XD.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

but looking at it from my perspective TOTAL RANDOM chance would give me about 40% chance at nabbing a wolf too. And that's WITHOUT excluding the people that I'm quite sure are human (other than iggy). For iggy... it must be more like... ****, something like 50%+ random chance, assuming he removes the blues and people he's seer'd green.

And yet you do not trust my lynch pick...
The only reason the average percentage is about 40% is because I am quite sure my alliance is dirty (I.E. I seered the MW) so that was figured into my results. My lynch pool is almost 80% assuming I did not seer the MW.

Like I said, a2p is statistically the best pick. But whoever gets picked, I suggest making it an insta since ANY phantoms would really hurt the human team. (It could actually cost us a whole day if a human gets a phantom since there is the possibility of the wolves equaling the humans during the day. If that happens, they could all jump on that human with their votes and win the game.) Right now we have 3 chances to nail a wolf, if a human gets a phantom we only have 2.

I may not be around towards the end of this day, but take my words to heart, if you do not insta lynch someone and a human gets a phantom, it will take a lynch away from the humans. That's true no matter how you feel about my alliance style.

[Temote]

Iggy, seriously. Get on AIM. =P