Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink
Ok, here are my thoughts:
#1: I'm apparently filling in for gradient. Gradient didn't turn in the first dilemma when paired with manti. He got a coinflip of "trust" and got no power. I think this is public knowledge, so I'm just confirming it since I got this information when I was chosen to replace him. For the second night, he again missed the dilemma when paired with Tokzic and was coinflipped to "betray", and again got nothing.
#2: We should lynch jrodd again. He lied, so in accordance with lynch-all-liars, he needs to fully die. I will not abide such bad play. Furthermore, him being honest about us being unable to successfully kill him is irrelevant. He could just as easily be a wolf who gained that power as a human who had that power. He may also have had a wolf partner who luckily got a power to guard someone else from a lynch and was able to coincidentally save him after jrodd's plan "backfired" and got him actually lynched when he was trying to use reverse psychology.
#3: I think we need to take a look at everyone who wasn't on board with lynching jrodd. From the very beginning, it was clear to me that he HAD to be lynched, and yet so many were actively opposed to it while others were just passively on the fence. Even if I wasn't an ardent follower of the ideals of lynch-all-liars, he was EXTRAORDINARILY sketchy and overly aggressive in a way that was most definitely not appropriate. If you thought jrodd was a trustworthy townie, why would you be afraid of lynching him? Do you think a day 1 lynch is THAT valuable that it cannot be used to test a lying player's unlikely claim? Is a day 1 lynch so valuable that it can't be used up on a possible townie in accordance with lynch-all-liars? Guys, day 1 lynches tend to be the least accurate overall, if any of our lynches is "expendable", it's that one. I may have to re-read the thread to double check, but I think these people included most notably danceguy and manti. This makes the most sense if you consider that jrodd didn't really want to get lynched (he wouldn't, even if he was human!) and that his partners were subtly trying to get us to look elsewhere at a townie who would actually go down. Even if jrodd is human, the wolves wouldn't want us to lynch him, they'd rather us lynch someone who would actually die. If jrodd is townie, the wolves would be the ones who would be most likely to trust jrodd's claim, and if he isn't human, the wolves STILL would want us to lynch someone else.
#4: Manti is also on my radar for his plan. He originally suggested it was game-breaking, but it's not. Not even close. He made it seem that this was something fojar wouldn't allow. Why would this be? When he made the post, I, without saying anything specific about the game, pm'd him and pointed out that it's the host's job to ensure games cannot be broken and if they can, it is the player's responsibility to play to their best ability. If a plan is not against the rules, you absolutely should do it. And there's nothing about the plan which is against the rules. It would have been before the rules change, but with the rules change, it's CLEARLY not even REMOTELY against the rules. And it's not even like the plan was questionable for before the rules change, so it's not like he didn't know about the rules change. His plan would CLEARLY have been against the rules before, and it's CLEARLY NOT now. It seems to me that Manti was trying to act as if he broke the game, but figured that fojar wouldn't allow it. This would allow him to find a game-breaking strategy that would make him look extra green, and if fojar wouldn't allow it, he wouldn't actually have to help the greens win. But think of Manti's personality. Does he seem the sort to avoid breaking games when he thinks the plan is within the rules? Hell no. Manti, in my mind, is the type who always seeks out the path of least resistance, he's the sort of person who does what is most effective even when it is against the spirit of the game. For example: seer/guardian alliances. Those are totally against the spirit of the game, but I KNOW Manti would NEVER give up the opportunity to use a plan like that. So if a townie Manti thought he had a plan that let the humans win, why wouldn't he just enact it? And in't Manti smart enough to know that the plan that he ultimately revealed isn't even CLOSE to helping as much as he originally claimed?
#5: The plan is also needlessly complicated. For example, my night 2 dilemma choice was chosen by coinflip and I'm not even sure if it turned out to be what it was "supposed" to be for manti's plan or not. He also said it would change from day-to-day about which players are supposed to trust and which are supposed to not. There's no way this would not get messed up in execution, so this is still game-able by wolves who could EASILY feign not understanding what they were supposed to do or who could pretend to, like many already have, missing the dilemma and getting a coinflip for their choice. A MUCH simpler plan would be to have everyone pick trust. My probability skills are rusty, but it looks like there would be on average, 1 power per pairing of 2. Same probability overall as Manti's plan, except that 25% of the time both partners would get no power and and 25% both partners would get a power (the remaining 50% would be that one of the two gets a power). The potential problem here is that wolves can more directly game the always-trust plan simply by distrusting, but this can be mitigated. I'm honestly kind of pissed off that this was never discussed. If the wolves don't pick "trust", their partners are SURE to not get a power. This means that wolves are more likely to expose themselves if their partners consistently don't get powers. In short, if we were to all choose "trust", we could keep a look out for players who have partners who don't get powers. Obviously, we wouldn't choose lynches from this pool exclusively, but we'd look more closely at them. So wolves can either distrust and expose themselves to definite extra scrutiny, or they can choose trust, have a 50% chance of getting a power for themselves, let their [probably] human partner get a power, and avoid the extra spotlight on them. Basically: it'd be most advantageous for the wolves to choose to trust too if they knew that every townie was going to as well. It's in everyone's best interest to trust every time, it is the simplest choice to make, and probability of getting a power evens out to about 1 per every 2 players.
#6: People need to stop being so fucking stupid. If you have a brain, post like it. Almost everyone needs to step their game up. If not, don't even sign up. The same goes for the idiots who sign up and need to be replaced before day 2 even starts. Ugh.
#7: I've been keeping up with the game so far, but I think it would be wise to re-examine day 1 knowing that jrodd really would survive. I've got a lot of days off over the next week thanks to the holiday, so I think I'll be able to read everything again before day 2 ends. I think it would be wise for everyone else to do so as well. This is important, do your best to make time for it. This includes whoever the dunce was who said they had "skimmed" the posts. Fuck that noise. You READ posts. Or don't sign up.
#8: lol wolves r dum that kill was so fucking awful, i mean congrats duders, you totally just took care of a shitty townie who we easily could have ended up lynching later anyway
Ok, here are my thoughts:
#1: I'm apparently filling in for gradient. Gradient didn't turn in the first dilemma when paired with manti. He got a coinflip of "trust" and got no power. I think this is public knowledge, so I'm just confirming it since I got this information when I was chosen to replace him. For the second night, he again missed the dilemma when paired with Tokzic and was coinflipped to "betray", and again got nothing.
#2: We should lynch jrodd again. He lied, so in accordance with lynch-all-liars, he needs to fully die. I will not abide such bad play. Furthermore, him being honest about us being unable to successfully kill him is irrelevant. He could just as easily be a wolf who gained that power as a human who had that power. He may also have had a wolf partner who luckily got a power to guard someone else from a lynch and was able to coincidentally save him after jrodd's plan "backfired" and got him actually lynched when he was trying to use reverse psychology.
#3: I think we need to take a look at everyone who wasn't on board with lynching jrodd. From the very beginning, it was clear to me that he HAD to be lynched, and yet so many were actively opposed to it while others were just passively on the fence. Even if I wasn't an ardent follower of the ideals of lynch-all-liars, he was EXTRAORDINARILY sketchy and overly aggressive in a way that was most definitely not appropriate. If you thought jrodd was a trustworthy townie, why would you be afraid of lynching him? Do you think a day 1 lynch is THAT valuable that it cannot be used to test a lying player's unlikely claim? Is a day 1 lynch so valuable that it can't be used up on a possible townie in accordance with lynch-all-liars? Guys, day 1 lynches tend to be the least accurate overall, if any of our lynches is "expendable", it's that one. I may have to re-read the thread to double check, but I think these people included most notably danceguy and manti. This makes the most sense if you consider that jrodd didn't really want to get lynched (he wouldn't, even if he was human!) and that his partners were subtly trying to get us to look elsewhere at a townie who would actually go down. Even if jrodd is human, the wolves wouldn't want us to lynch him, they'd rather us lynch someone who would actually die. If jrodd is townie, the wolves would be the ones who would be most likely to trust jrodd's claim, and if he isn't human, the wolves STILL would want us to lynch someone else.
#4: Manti is also on my radar for his plan. He originally suggested it was game-breaking, but it's not. Not even close. He made it seem that this was something fojar wouldn't allow. Why would this be? When he made the post, I, without saying anything specific about the game, pm'd him and pointed out that it's the host's job to ensure games cannot be broken and if they can, it is the player's responsibility to play to their best ability. If a plan is not against the rules, you absolutely should do it. And there's nothing about the plan which is against the rules. It would have been before the rules change, but with the rules change, it's CLEARLY not even REMOTELY against the rules. And it's not even like the plan was questionable for before the rules change, so it's not like he didn't know about the rules change. His plan would CLEARLY have been against the rules before, and it's CLEARLY NOT now. It seems to me that Manti was trying to act as if he broke the game, but figured that fojar wouldn't allow it. This would allow him to find a game-breaking strategy that would make him look extra green, and if fojar wouldn't allow it, he wouldn't actually have to help the greens win. But think of Manti's personality. Does he seem the sort to avoid breaking games when he thinks the plan is within the rules? Hell no. Manti, in my mind, is the type who always seeks out the path of least resistance, he's the sort of person who does what is most effective even when it is against the spirit of the game. For example: seer/guardian alliances. Those are totally against the spirit of the game, but I KNOW Manti would NEVER give up the opportunity to use a plan like that. So if a townie Manti thought he had a plan that let the humans win, why wouldn't he just enact it? And in't Manti smart enough to know that the plan that he ultimately revealed isn't even CLOSE to helping as much as he originally claimed?
#5: The plan is also needlessly complicated. For example, my night 2 dilemma choice was chosen by coinflip and I'm not even sure if it turned out to be what it was "supposed" to be for manti's plan or not. He also said it would change from day-to-day about which players are supposed to trust and which are supposed to not. There's no way this would not get messed up in execution, so this is still game-able by wolves who could EASILY feign not understanding what they were supposed to do or who could pretend to, like many already have, missing the dilemma and getting a coinflip for their choice. A MUCH simpler plan would be to have everyone pick trust. My probability skills are rusty, but it looks like there would be on average, 1 power per pairing of 2. Same probability overall as Manti's plan, except that 25% of the time both partners would get no power and and 25% both partners would get a power (the remaining 50% would be that one of the two gets a power). The potential problem here is that wolves can more directly game the always-trust plan simply by distrusting, but this can be mitigated. I'm honestly kind of pissed off that this was never discussed. If the wolves don't pick "trust", their partners are SURE to not get a power. This means that wolves are more likely to expose themselves if their partners consistently don't get powers. In short, if we were to all choose "trust", we could keep a look out for players who have partners who don't get powers. Obviously, we wouldn't choose lynches from this pool exclusively, but we'd look more closely at them. So wolves can either distrust and expose themselves to definite extra scrutiny, or they can choose trust, have a 50% chance of getting a power for themselves, let their [probably] human partner get a power, and avoid the extra spotlight on them. Basically: it'd be most advantageous for the wolves to choose to trust too if they knew that every townie was going to as well. It's in everyone's best interest to trust every time, it is the simplest choice to make, and probability of getting a power evens out to about 1 per every 2 players.
#6: People need to stop being so fucking stupid. If you have a brain, post like it. Almost everyone needs to step their game up. If not, don't even sign up. The same goes for the idiots who sign up and need to be replaced before day 2 even starts. Ugh.
#7: I've been keeping up with the game so far, but I think it would be wise to re-examine day 1 knowing that jrodd really would survive. I've got a lot of days off over the next week thanks to the holiday, so I think I'll be able to read everything again before day 2 ends. I think it would be wise for everyone else to do so as well. This is important, do your best to make time for it. This includes whoever the dunce was who said they had "skimmed" the posts. Fuck that noise. You READ posts. Or don't sign up.
#8: lol wolves r dum that kill was so fucking awful, i mean congrats duders, you totally just took care of a shitty townie who we easily could have ended up lynching later anyway
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