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Old 10-8-2013, 06:44 PM   #1099
dAnceguy117
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Join Date: Dec 2002
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Age: 33
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Default Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

hi everyone, again, please don't look at what I say and agree with me without thinking. although that hasn't really happened at all anyway haha. but see if you notice something here, or if you don't agree.



V - wolfy

j-rodd said earlier that V is playing very well, and I completely agree, regardless of his role. some of the things he says really make me second guess my read. when I look at the actions, though, I want to stick to my read.

day 1: mostly absent. skipping.

day 2: very interesting stuff. V hard defended Fiction (on the basis that Fiction is an active player) in #693 and tried to move the lynch to either TPS or Manti. if V is town, that's a really good play. if V is a wolf, that's a really good play.

day 3: the basis of my read. #775 is the vote on Krauthammer. he never moved his vote afterward. if he's town, then he thought he had a very strong read, and rightfully so. but check out the logic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendetta21 View Post
agreeing with jrodd's wolf tells, calling him human, and voting manti now after your second phase of lynching green? and with jrodd nonetheless. "oh no i'm going to keep completely agreeing with this guy and following his lead but never consider him wolfy when he fails to catch red."
he's right. j-rodd was on both wagons in Day 1 and Day 2, when we lynched humans. jrodd's red reads were Manti/Kraut/TPS, and Kraut's fake red reads were Manti/TPS.

does this logic work as a basis to immediately catch a wolf as a townie? Kraut agreed with jrodd's reads, yes. so did V in post #808. Kraut's fake read on jrodd was town, yes. V implied that his read on jrodd was town in post #819.

let's say you're a townie. you see something you find suspicious, and you try to articulate why. if you then find that you can apply the exact same reasoning to yourself (a townie), does that logic make sense to very accurately hone in on a wolf?

townies can lynch correctly based on wonky logic, yes. that's called luck, and it happens frequently. but we had basically no mentions of or votes on Kraut in the first 2 days. jrodd blocked Krauthammer's kill during night 2, and the wolves knew it, as essentially shown in Kraut's posts #773 and #786. Kraut (at least supposedly) thought that the no-kill was due to a block rather than a guard based on the host's post. it looks like Kraut tried to bait out fiction's mom (jrodd). there are a couple advantages if they can do that:

1) fiction's mom is outed. they get to kill fiction's mom the following night, or at least me when I guard jrodd.
2) the entire lynch would have been mechanic and there would be no information given.

jrodd didn't claim. after seeing Kraut's name suddenly in the red section of jrodd's reads, though, I bet the wolves knew what was up. V then strikes with the super-accurate read, and we kill Krauthammer. examine these events. do you think it was set up?
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