TWG XL: Mall Madness

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

i'm glad the seer is still alive, because it doesnt matter whether the wolfsbane or guardian is alive, because the SK has nothing to gain by going after the seer, in fact the SK probably benefits from leaving the seer alive, as it could potentially help him narrow down the other roles.

what we need to do is make sure kagome makes good picks at night to try and hit reds while looking for the SK during the day.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

rioting, the bane will not come out as clearly the seer already has. what was being discussed earlier was having the bane come out if the seer didn't. Also, if kagome plays this correctly, the probability of lynching the other blue should be zero.

[FoJaR]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

in fact, kagome no matter who you seer, dont trust them just because you seered them green, because you might be feeding a seered SK information, like stuff that could help him weed out the (hopefully) guardian later in the game.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

@kagome: don't forget to limit the voting pool (ie by picking a group of names for everyone to vote for). With the advantage of the cardflip, it forces the wolves to make and justify votes they might not otherwise make, and gives us an edge. Just make sure you pick people that are suspicious to you, obviously.

Negative. From my own experience of doing this (I.E. throwing out two names for people to lynch) this lets the wolves know who NOT to kill and becomes a huge pain late game unless you continue to lynch from that same pool. Which also lets the wolves know what the alliance is doing in the future and can plan kills and such accordingly.

However, if you think the SK will mutually work with the humans for awhile, throw 1 other name out in hopes of the SK killing that person. That way the humans are getting two kills for awhile. (Not sure on numbers but doubled chances of getting wolves works right? XD)

But do NOT give choices of people to lynch for the sake of discussion. Either vote normally or take control of the lynch. (This is all directed to kagome) If the thread is left to make a choice, it will fail miserably. Yes it may be boring for humans who have nothing to do, but having concrete things to work with is better than using the power of deduction. Everyone will vote whoever you vote and anyone who goes against it will be put on the spot for not following you.

AP: Being a dick isn't part of the game. Instead of insulting people, try to objectively determine if his behavior/comments make him suspicious.

I'd have to disagree with this. Being a dick is the main part of the game. Controversy sparks opportunity. Coasting through a friendly game makes it too easy for people to fly under the radar. If your idea isn't able to be put under the microscope then you will either learn to think or be flamed everytime you try to contribute. Just my opinion on the matter.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

what we need to do is make sure kagome makes good picks at night to try and hit reds while looking for the SK during the day.

No I think kagome should make bad picks while we lynch off humans....
Besides, define a 'good' seer pick. They're all based off gut feelings and minute suspicions.

Also:

Not sure if this is the same rule but last game where there was a SK, the game still went on if the SK was alive and wolves > humans. So in theory that would buy us another day of lynching and SKing if that were the case. Having the SK alive with a bunch of wolves helps us out. (7 players: 4 wolves + 1 SK + 2 humans = GAME ON!) I'm not sure if the humans could win at that point but it would be a game between the wolves and SK, but still XD.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Wow this monstrosity can't go on as fact....

Here are some more numbers I worked out for you to consider. If we assume that the Kagome really is the seer here is how a random lynching should turn out:

33.3% chance of killing a red or the SK:
While we wouldn’t know if we actually killed the SK (assuming that the SK turns up green when killed) we would find out soon when only one person turns up dead the next night. 5/15 = 33.3%

Yea except 2 blues + 2 dead + 1 night seering = 18 - 5 = 13. Where in the world did 15 come from? I mean we ASSUME the seer isn't going to lynch his own alliance right away right or have I lost how the game is played.

So seer picking the lynch is more like 38%. (5/13, And with two chances of finding one, assuming the SK=human strategy I talked about, that raises it even more)

13.3% chance of killing either the guardian or the wolfsbane

More like 0%

53.3% chance of killing a human
This probability is the highest but it isn’t that much worse than the chances of killing a red.

Something around 62% would be more accurate. (8/13)

let's focus on the wolves.... (stuff about how wolves can win)

For future reference, doing the math for the wolves makes you look wolfy. I mean, I know I'm not going to sit down and figure out all those numbers if I'm human. It doesn't really benefit much at all.

Correct me if I’m wrong....

Gladly XD.

[rioting]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Haha, thanks iggy. I'm trying to speed up my learning curve, and in talking to people, I can see why the wolfsbane's exposure just doesn't make sense. And also the role that the seer plays here in relation to the lynchings. I understand that a lot more clearly now than when I post just a few hours. As far as looking at your opponent’s possible plans, I don't think it's any less relevant than looking at your own. Which is part of why I'm particularly glad I got to play in this game because it not only has the wolves but it also a serial killer to think about. I’m looking at the serial killer’s role right now and if I have any insights perhaps I’ll share another monstrosity with you.

[talisman]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Iggy911Mc (7:11:59 PM): what do you think about my revision to your stratgey about vote pooling
stressreliefball (7:12:17 PM): which was essentially "hump kagome's vote"?
Iggy911Mc (7:12:35 PM): lol there was reasoning behind it
Iggy911Mc (7:12:39 PM): its not just that
stressreliefball (7:12:42 PM): I think that gives us no information
stressreliefball (7:12:52 PM): your point about the wolves knowing who not to kill
Iggy911Mc (7:12:53 PM): well the alternative doesnt either
stressreliefball (7:12:54 PM): is valid
stressreliefball (7:13:01 PM): it does with the cardflip
stressreliefball (7:13:22 PM): as people have to justify who they're voting for out of the three or four or whatever candidates
stressreliefball (7:13:41 PM): and wolves always suck at justifying their votes early in the game

essentially I'm wanting to find a way to maximize the info gained from the cardflip as early as possible... letting the day play out normally as day ones go or just picking one name gives us little info fast enough.

[jwcgator]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Voting so far

Iggy (1) - Nforcer

Edit: There is actually 24:45 lest

[jwcgator]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Also, I think observer should make the Master Wolf a regular wolf. I don't think it's fair to the humans (and the blues) that there are 2 red roles (assuming SK=Red) that get seered green. I also don't think the fact that there are 4 wolves is fair either but there's not much we can do about that now.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

Voting so far

Iggy (1) - Nforcer

Only 1:10 left

25:10 you god damn idiot

[jwcgator]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

25:10 you god damn idiot

My bad, I thought for some reason it was Monday night.

Sheesh, give a guy a break every once in a while.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

That vote was to grab attention and get people talking. Consider it null at this point, because I have absolutely no suspicion of iggy. I choose not to change it right now because I don't want to flip-flop 20 times before the deadline.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

It would depend on whether or not a human alliance is advantageous. Recent games has proved that it might not be the best for a human alliance to form, because it's very easy for the wolves to infiltrate it. Which is why I'm kind of reluctant to say that a human alliance is going to be good for us.

About the kill: I don't see the wolves killing Chromer. Why would they? Wilkin's way more experienced and seems more of a plausible kill for the wolves. But then again, why kill Chromer if you're the SK? Either way, the kill is perplexing.

I'm about to throw out a vote on someone just to get some discussion going. Right now all it's been is people bitching about a blue being dead. It's over, it's happened, yes it sucks a GREAT deal, but it just means we need the blues to SHUT THE **** UP unless explicitly told not to by multiple people. If you're the seer, do not come out unless the wolfsbane goes public, and if you do, only to him. The guardian should NEVER come out (sup FFR) but that goes without saying.

sertman

Okay let's look at this outdated post. He misses the dominant strategy on everything. He isn't actually thinking when he types these plays, he's trying to come up with vacant strategies that do mildly bad things for the humans without much of substance.

1) It's plain to see Chromer is a good wolf kill. I explained above. The wolves KNOW this is the best strategy, but because they chose the strategy they WILL NOT COME OUT AND SAY WHY IT IS DOMINANT THEMSELVES. So far, sertman and talisman are the only players that have done this.

2) He argues AGAINST a human alliance without providing anything more than vague reasons why. Discounting a human alliance this early without any thought would be absolutely devastating, this is bad advice.

3) I'm tempted to throw out a vote. You're so tempted but you don't move on it. All momentum, no action.

4) He plays the 'blues are dead but we can't do anything about it' card. It's a standard human tactic, except he's dumb enough to use hypberole to draw attention to the fact that he's doing it.

Honorable mentions:
rioting - Warping the numbers, poorly though (that could just be stupidity. Smart players would warp the numbers and make them uncomprehendable, like me). Copled with his general aloofness, his play seems strange

talisman - He's done a fantastic job of not having a clue (though he's been slowly getting the picture since the start). It's very unlike talisman to play this way. I think it might be possible for him to eb the SK.

[sertman]

Re: TWG XL: Mall Madness

stuff

I was just attempting to add my input. Obviously, from the way that it turned out, I was wrong, and the reason I didn't throw a vote out was because I was doing stuff all day (homework/baseball clinic) (**** i hate throwing out excuses but it's the truth) and I returned to find that nforcer threw out a vote and it basically went nowhere, so there was no point to me doing so. In response to me "missing the dominant strategy on everything", it should be obvious to just about anyone that I haven't been around long enough to really pick up on the dominant strategy. Whether or not I should have opened my mouth is up in the air, but I didn't want to just sit back and let the discussion rage on without me saying anything: even if I get shot down, that's fine, I've learned.