TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by Precarious

1. Give up hope.
2. Freezin implicates himself.
3. Still going to be lynched.

This rollercoaster of emotions. I look forward to discussing this with you guys at length in the post game. In the meantime, let me leave you with this:

The Last Will and Testament of Precarious

To Freezin, I bequeath one vote--except it's already on you.

To the Town, I bequeath the following:







Please refer to my D0 EOD analysis in 4868

D0 EOD was characterized by a lot of late vote-swapping. This isn't unusual, but the intensity and specificity of it was. As noted, the original wagons were ultimately eclipsed by Manti and FG--the Manti wagon in particular filled quickly. It's worth noting that Jessie voted at the very last moment, thus sparing FG. I initially interpreted this as an indicator that Funny's and Jessie were a potential scum pair, but I abandoned that much later--after Funny's big reveal. I believe this was a mistake--thanks to their friendship and the EOD result I overassociated the two of them, which caused me to overlook the obvious once Funny cleared. And that's that the Jessie/Charu wolf link has never been comfortably disproved. Instead, I notice they've since limited their direct interaction since my original case (see 5018), presumably distancing.

***

Now, the Funny wagon has, by definition, one wolf. That's Freezin. All other players in that group are since flipped. That makes sense, since ideally wolves would want to avoid action, hiding their votes in a safe non-lynched space when the lynchee proved to not be one of them.

All other currently alive wolves must therefore have their votes spread elsewhere. I suspect Charu and Jessie on the Manti wagon; I also have some concerns about Daikyi, whose vote pattern is troubling. He was a late push on Manti, was unvoted the next day, and avoided the entire showdown between me and FFA (ultimately resulting in the insta) the next day. His play has been overly cautious and cynically reflective, picking on minutiae that never goes anywhere in order to create stasis. I have a hard time believing there'd be so many wolves on the same wagon, but Daikyi reads wolf if Charu/Jessie is wrong.

Xiz by contrast looks the best of the Manti voters. His Tokzic vote looks very good in retrospect. I read his confusion in various places as genuine. According to his posts, he had various IRL commitments that affected his time, and his confusion over the Funny Speculator triad seems genuine. In light of that, his willingness to go against the grain there feels like the work of someone trying to solve something without full understanding. He has a fairly high post volume with a fair amount of filler, but overall he seems genuinely inquisitive.

Zenith and Sprucegrit are probably town. Despite his excessive tunneling on me, Zenith's aggression has always felt genuine, coming from a place of conviction. His ability to make up for the, um, actions of his predecessor speak to a high degree of commitment--that's sort of NAI, but the sheer analytical effort feels out of place for scum in a game of this much activity. More to the point, his D0 vote looks good in retrospect. After that is less clear, but his distaste for me is consistent with not participating in the insta.

Sprucegrit also benefits from the same D0 logic, having placed a vote (along with MML) on Freezin. As above,these were not threatening wagons in the long run, but the EOD circumstances changed rapidly. Tokzic was initially taking heat due to a combination of inactivity and irrelevant material in his brief appearances, and Freezin absorbed some heat after his and MML's claims clashed a bit. (We now know that MML was sort of right; Freezin has at least partially abandoned that particular pose). This was further buttressed by his next day's vote, where he correctly voted for Tokzic (this EOD is less interesting to me since it was largely premised on what turned out to be a slip by Tokzic, but the results are still somewhat meaningful imo). I'm not as sold as many on Spruce's actual play, probably because it's stylistically distinct from what I'm used to. There seems to be a lot of deference paid for relatively few aggressive reads, but I fall into the camp that sees his initial item post as towny.

Blind was on FFA (a temporarily promising wagon) on D0, Roundbox the next day, FFA again yesterday as part of the insta. Similar to his actual play, this is fairly null. However, his results are relatively internally consistent, given that he's come back to Round again. I don't really care for his game. It's been aggressive in places, but conveniently so; he also had that really scummy "why am I alive" post at 6583 that felt like a guilty twitch. That said, his style feels somewhat similar to Freezin's to me, and I'm not sure wolves would be comfortable adopting that tone with multiple players. Null.

TWGma and Celirra both voted WC on D1, then diverged--but frankly, I have trouble seeing either as a wolf. TWGma's FE knowledge and general bent, as well as focused activity reads firmly town. His Roundbox vote is generally reasonable. Celirra's play has been more sporadic imo, but has a solid claim, and a Tokzic vote (as well as the conviction to defy the insta, even if their assumption was still wrong).

Roundbox's play has improved from his start, but still comes across as forced. His reluctance to commit to shooting in the ITA speaks to this; his play is all over the place, occasionally teasing substance, but never actually providing it. His Tokzic vote does look good in retrospect, but a pile on is hardly a rare idea. Wolf lean.

Xel barely exists. I don't have the meta knowledge some of you do. Null.

quoting for analysis

[roundbox]

If you lynch me you straight up lose the game celery

Notice how I didn't tell this to Charu since it would be a win from his point of view

[Daikyi]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Did u check prec post history


He used his roleblock on me after I faked I was going to guard fg.

If u think that was staged or something I have a bridge to sell u

did i fucking miss this i legit went through and checked after he flipped

[Charu]

Seriously, who's the vigi shot. If wolves had 3 KPS last phase I'll lose my shit.

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Did u check prec post history


He used his roleblock on me after I faked I was going to guard fg.

If u think that was staged or something I have a bridge to sell u

got a quote?

[Celirra]

actually yeah i think if wolves have a second killing power this is technically mylo

[Daikyi]

wary of prec final analysis post coming down to ultra WIFOM because of cornered wolf status, a lot of that can be bait

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

If you lynch me you straight up lose the game celery

Notice how I didn't tell this to Charu since it would be a win from his point of view

I have no idea what you're going on about right now.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Precarious

:*(

But seriously, I'm regretting wasting time on my own mega-post. I kind of want to lynch Jessie, since I think it clarifies Charu (and potentially the rest of the Manti wagon).

Quote

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Did u check prec post history


He used his roleblock on me after I faked I was going to guard fg.

If u think that was staged or something I have a bridge to sell u

Can you quote it?

[blindreper1179]

thanks

[Celirra]

i think xiz looked the worst at eod

[FreezinIce]

Oh reading it again it was earlier than my fg bluff.

Now I feel less good about that play

[Daikyi]

:*( may be used to later roleblock the player that Neimi is quoting. Neimi must be alive for this action to be performed.

was that d1 or d2

either way, that's actually pretty lock town

[Charu]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Oh reading it again it was earlier than my fg bluff.

Now I feel less good about that play

Regardless, he still used it on you, which means you're a town no matter what.

[Charu]

Apologies for starting to doubt you, Freezin. I really was on board with the Precarious lynch, but after I was thinking about it, I sort of grew into this other world.

[Daikyi]

i say pretty* lock town because there's like the 1% possibility of wolves setting up the maximum deep wolf play, but currently am pretty damn confident that something like that wasn't planned that far ahead

[Daikyi]

ITT: charu tries to instantly pocket confirmed town

[Celirra]

ITT: two wolves try to pocket a town

[TWGma]

Magic.
Is.
Everything.