TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

[the sun fan]

so, as celery pointed out, there is a potential problem with the massclaim is TPS doesn't participate, so there's a few different things that can happen

TPS hits 10 contentful posts (I don't know where the bar is but there's no way its higher than this given blind and precarious were in the teens on d1 but didn't get the message TPS got) but never claims his role:
Lynch him. No reason for him to be the sole holdout here when it could mean the life of a blue, and we can't let a wolf get away with denying town that info.

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TPS hits 10 contentful posts, claims his role. We resolve as necessary. We probably just have a normal phase if this happens.

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TPS doesn't post any more, we expect him to be modkilled, so we lynch Freezin. There's no way to verify whether or not Freezin is telling the truth for sure if we are missing a piece, but it doesn't matter too much if TPS is getting modkilled anyway, and here's why.

Currently 9 alive, 6 town and 3 wolves looks like the most likely scenario by far.
9 alive: tps is modkilled, freezin is lynched (The modkill happens before Freezin shoots assuming he is the vengeful)
tps could be a wolf, freezin could also be a wolf (a lot less likely), and if freezin is a vengeful like he says he is, then town gets a shot at killing a wolf with his ChAoS sHoT.

What is beneath is the worst possible scenario where town can continue onwards.

If Tps is town, freezin is vengeful, then we're at 7 (4 town 3 wolves) alive, and freezin has to both shoot (he can apparently choose not to) and hit a wolf in order for the game to continue, which brings us to 6 alive, then the wolves kill a town bringing us to 5 (3 town 2 wolves), which is still workable, just not ideal.

The only scenario where town outright loses is one where TPS is town, Freezin is Vanilla Town and made a stupid play, and then town loses when the wolves make a nightkill, but this doesn't seem too likely given how early freezin was softing.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

so, as celery pointed out, there is a potential problem with the massclaim is TPS doesn't participate, so there's a few different things that can happen

TPS hits 10 contentful posts (I don't know where the bar is but there's no way its higher than this given blind and precarious were in the teens on d1 but didn't get the message TPS got) but never claims his role:
Lynch him. No reason for him to be the sole holdout here when it could mean the life of a blue, and we can't let a wolf get away with denying town that info.

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TPS hits 10 contentful posts, claims his role. We resolve as necessary. We probably just have a normal phase if this happens.

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TPS doesn't post any more, we expect him to be modkilled, so we lynch Freezin. There's no way to verify whether or not Freezin is telling the truth for sure if we are missing a piece, but it doesn't matter too much if TPS is getting modkilled anyway, and here's why.

Currently 9 alive, 6 town and 3 wolves looks like the most likely scenario by far.
9 alive: tps is modkilled, freezin is lynched (The modkill happens before Freezin shoots assuming he is the vengeful)
tps could be a wolf, freezin could also be a wolf (a lot less likely), and if freezin is a vengeful like he says he is, then town gets a shot at killing a wolf with his ChAoS sHoT.

What is beneath is the worst possible scenario where town can continue onwards.

If Tps is town, freezin is vengeful, then we're at 7 (4 town 3 wolves) alive, and freezin has to both shoot (he can apparently choose not to) and hit a wolf in order for the game to continue, which brings us to 6 alive, then the wolves kill a town bringing us to 5 (3 town 2 wolves), which is still workable, just not ideal.

The only scenario where town outright loses is one where TPS is town, Freezin is Vanilla Town and made a stupid play, and then town loses when the wolves make a nightkill, but this doesn't seem too likely given how early freezin was softing.

I more or less agree with the gist of this analysis.

Freezin can't be town under the existing known seven-roll structure, since it necessitates a serial killer. We've had only one night kill the first two nights, and right now we're assuming no P or H roles, so even if a theoretical SK (a) chose 1-shot bulletproof and (b) was hit with it, we would have had two kills at least one night.

So a lot comes down to what Tps claims, given how a claim could change things mechanically. Even my case against Blind needs to be secondary, since it's still merely a case; this is an opportunity to potentially catch a wolf indisputably (I don't believe there's technically any way to fully clear anyone under this framework).

Tps' lack of a claim, much moreso than his inactivity, thus becomes an issue. Since there's no evidence to support the existence of a serial killer, 6:3 is almost certainly the current player ratio, which means the following.



1. Scum have 1 NK; this holds true no matter what the actual game conditions are.

2. Unless Tps is actually a P or H, we have no capacity to stop the NK.

Therefore,

3. A normal mislynch, with no Vengeful/Modkill/other scenarios therefore takes us to 4:3 tomorrow.

4. A normal mislynch + town modkill, or a Vengeful mislynch + Vengekill on a town player ends the game instantly.



Right now, Tps hasn't been modkilled; absent a claim, we would need to decide whether to encourage a modkill, or lynch him.

Assuming a town Tps, the modkill would reduce us to 5:3, which would force either a no lynch or a 3/8 chance of hitting scum (without yet accounting for the complication of a potential Vengeful Freezin). Lynching Town-Tps would end the day, but would take us to a 4:3 scenario tomorrow--in other words, a 3/7 chance of hitting scum. This is an improved ratio, but it could also be achieved via modkill+no lynch; additionally, any 4:3 scenario runs the risk of a single town misvote allowing the wolves to hammer.

Of those scenarios, modkill + no lynch seems the most palatable to me in a vacuum: it maximizes overall discussion time and information gain (we could still evaluate the implications of Tps' flip today), and allows us to make a decision re: Freezin. If Tps were modkilled and his flip doesn't disprove Freezin's claim, we would have to weigh the advantages of no lynch vs lynching Freezin. Modkill + NL takes us to a 4:3 tomorrow in the worst case (town-Tps) scenario; Modkill Town-Tps + Vengeful-Freezin means everything would come down to the Vengekill. If it hits scum, we would be at 3:2 tomorrow. If it doesn't, it's game over.

If Tps' flip or claim were to disprove Freezin's claim, that would obviously simplify things enormously.

The problem with looking at things in a vacuum is that ignores all prior case-building and discussion; I'd still push for a Vengekill on Blind for example, the potential extra benefit being the slight chance of catching a wolf-Freezin not exposed by a Tps flip. There are a couple possibilities at night if we go the lynch or MK+NL route, but none seem that useful, and they potentially allow for gamesmanship on the wolves' part.

Under this framework (and assuming Tps doesn't condemn Freezin), I feel like the best scenarios are, in order

1. Tps claims, ideally well before the end of the day
2. Modkill Tps + lynch Vengeful Freezin + Vengekill the most likely suspect
2(b). Modkill Tps + NL (the downside here is that if Freezin is Vengeful, it'll likely never actually get the chance to activate)
3. Lynch Tps

[the sun fan]

would appreciate input

also, if freezin backs out and says he's VT then I'm instantly lynching him and not feeling bad about whatever he flips

[Celirra]

If tps is going to be modkilled then I am going to push for either no lynch or lynch of tps and if you think otherwise you're just actively trying to make the game end this phase potentially

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

If tps is going to be modkilled then I am going to push for either no lynch or lynch of tps and if you think otherwise you're just actively trying to make the game end this phase potentially

When I am back on a laptop I will make as good of a case as i can as to why ur idea doesn't do anything different.

[Celirra]

How is giving us another phase for developments and information not doing anything different...? With that logic the game strategy should be to just insta right away at start of day because it does nothing different

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

How is giving us another phase for developments and information not doing anything different...? With that logic the game strategy should be to just insta right away at start of day because it does nothing different

There is no further mechanical developments that can occur. No one is going back and reading aside from Precarious. If u value that time and pray the the wolves somehow make a mistake in that extra time, then I think ur holding out for a miracle.

[Celirra]

Rushing to a conclusion arguably contributed to your prior loss; in this situation, tps would be poofed and we would get a nightkill for information to work with probably. If you deny that nightkills can give info, or at least remove variables, then I dont know what to say friend

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Rushing to a conclusion arguably contributed to your prior loss; in this situation, tps would be poofed and we would get a nightkill for information to work with probably. If you deny that nightkills can give info, or at least remove variables, then I dont know what to say friend

I do not deny that that is one of the things that nightkills can and do do

They also allow the wolves to push a narrative that they choose

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

I do not deny that that is one of the things that nightkills can and do do

They also allow the wolves to push a narrative that they choose

We're 0-2 and down a pr so far, I don't think it's hard for a wolf to push a narrative right now regardless of anything that happens; frankly I'd rather have a potential narrative than an instant loss tonight.

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

We're 0-2 and down a pr so far, I don't think it's hard for a wolf to push a narrative right now regardless of anything that happens; frankly I'd rather have a potential narrative than an instant loss tonight.

the loss would only occur after THREE count them THREE (TWO if freezin isn't what he says he is, which is still good) chances to hit wolves

THREE lynches is a lot better than one, friend, even if one is on a stupid meme blue role

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Rushing to a conclusion arguably contributed to your prior loss; in this situation, tps would be poofed and we would get a nightkill for information to work with probably. If you deny that nightkills can give info, or at least remove variables, then I dont know what to say friend

more than rushing to a conclusion, I think the events of that game contributed to that loss

I do agree ultimately with what you are saying about that though

this isn't rush tho

[blindreper1179]

Yeah, the freezin idea might work, since that makes sure he's vengeful, and gets a kill. I was gonna say why not lynch the person he's gonna shoot, but that leaves open that he may be lying. But if he's not lying, he gets bought killed so his power is useless anyways. It's a pretty tough predicament we're in right now. Tps really needs to show up.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

Yeah, the freezin idea might work, since that makes sure he's vengeful, and gets a kill. I was gonna say why not lynch the person he's gonna shoot, but that leaves open that he may be lying. But if he's not lying, he gets bought killed so his power is useless anyways. It's a pretty tough predicament we're in right now. Tps really needs to show up.

This makes no sense

Are you even reading the thread

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

This makes no sense

Are you even reading the thread

What doesn't make sense? And yeah, i am. Or else how would i make comments on things?

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

What doesn't make sense? And yeah, i am. Or else how would i make comments on things?

How are you going to lynch the person I shoot if you lynch me lol.

You didn't specify what the freezin idea even was

Taken as a whole the post is incomprensibile

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

How are you going to lynch the person I shoot if you lynch me lol.

You didn't specify what the freezin idea even was

Taken as a whole the post is incomprensibile

Oh, ok. You just don't know how to read then.

I said "I WAS gonna say" as in, instead of lynching you, we lynch your kill instead. BUT, I don't like that idea too much because you could be lying, or the wolves night kill you and we lose your power. Comprehensible enough for you now?

[blindreper1179]

I still like and prefer the tps lynch if he doesn't show. Im with you here celery.

[blindreper1179]

Night killed, not bought killed lmao

[the sun fan]

if there's not a wolf in those three (or two) chances then town deserves to lose