TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

[the sun fan]

wait I just realized a problem

if Tps is fake then waiting until f3 to lynch him doesn't quite work

people would be scared in f5 of the draw happening

[the sun fan]

hmmmmmmmmmmm

[the sun fan]

Idk man whatever I feel like I say I feel like I'm gonna get the flamerino for this but

if there would ever be a team to self-kill one of their own to setup their lowest poster to try and win the game it would be something along the lines of

Xiz- TWG Chaos
Freezin- Chaos Meta
Tps- The man who wolfkilled himself when he was 13, and the man who counterclaimed his own wolfpartner's fakeclaim

idk man

I'm not gonna act on this this phase but its just like

that's a motley crue there

[Celirra]

if tps sacks himself he cant be the wolf technically

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

if tps sacks himself he cant be the wolf technically

i'm not talking about whatever you're talking about

[Celirra]

why did tps hide behind *me* anyways

[Tps222]

Originally Posted by Celirra

why did tps hide behind *me* anyways

I thought you weren't likely to be targeted at the time, I also wasn't as familiar with the implications of how the hider role worked and what the best strats/uses of it were.

[inDheart]

hello i am pretty sore ow

i have read the first ~50 words of prec's post and am astounded he is not a fan of comparisons to steve prefontaine, that guy was cool

i don't really like limiting options to me or prec but that's probably because me is one of them. i'm probably just gonna do the thing i mentioned earlier and see if i can clear someone in the group

[the sun fan]

my refutation is that the things that he does are weird

his reasons for his reads make very little sense, and I've said as much to him twice this game

his behavior, and especially his votes (to be honest, the vote part is probably true of a lot of players on FFR) don't always line up with his words

but I don't care that it doesn't

that doesn't inherently make someone wolfy. It makes them a human being, and this is the blindreper1179 that I have played with for years now. This is the guy I stay with when I'm going through Detroit. This is his typical town play.

I am not going through your points one by one but
I hope this will at least serve somewhat of a explanation, if not a refutation

[the sun fan]

it also makes completely zero sense for him to ever be a wolf given the wagon from previous EOD

his behavior, specifically when he claimed Vanilla Town, makes me think he's exactly what he says he is too

[the sun fan]

2-1-1 is still a chance to win, its just not a very good one.
Town sleeps and hopes the scum kill one another.

I am in favor of Tps hiding regardless of the result but ultimately it appears that he is not so that discussion doesn't seem too important unless you're trying to convince him that he should.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

2-1-1 is still a chance to win, its just not a very good one.
Town sleeps and hopes the scum kill one another.

Ooh, that is interesting! That would force both wolf and SK into a very uncomfortable position. In 2-1-1, it's highly likely that 1 of the 2 town would be confirmed, and one wouldn't--and thus neither wolf nor SK could be absolutely sure which player is which. Since both would have a killing power, they'd have to hope they've correctly identified the other, and haven't been identified themselves. There's certainly a chance that this results in a 2:0 town win, as well as a 1:1:1 and multiple different 1:1 scenarios. However, all of those are losses save the 2:0.

I still would push for the Hide strategy, since the odds still seem to be better, but this is absolutely a better approach to the worst case scenario.

[the sun fan]

to be honest, I don't think the SK is any more or less incentivized to go after a person because they know the hider is about

the wolf, maybe is, but its a very minor point

I love the outside-the-boxness of the idea though
that's the kind of stuff I love to read/think about

[the sun fan]

I think the biggest problem here is that no one will balk at blowing the game up and forcing a draw. Its just what I figure most people on FFR would do.

"You play to win the game" after all, and if we give them reason to do a specific thing, then they're going to do it most of the time because its their best play. If they don't win as a result of making their best play, I don't think they feel bad that they drew.

That's my take, at least.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

"You play to win the game" after all.

That's just it. I suppose it comes down to the idea that I view a 1:1:1 as a loss for everyone--which is why I keep referring to it as a draw-loss. No one achieves their victory conditions.

Under the NL approach, a 2:1:1 is relatively unpalatable to the bad guys, but they would still have a chance. I feel like the Hide strategy and its implications (potentially bringing about the 1:1:1 more quickly) would make them more likely to hunt each other. And even under the draw logic, I feel like it gives us a better chance of getting to the draw, rather than the loss.

I mean, under that logic, we might as well abandon the NL strategy altogether. At least one known town player has to survive until tomorrow, which means they could lead a self-vote and force the 1:1:1. That seems distasteful, and I was hesitant to point it out until now, but if we're arguing 1:1:1 is a goal state... (There's also no risk of it backfiring in a Tps as lone wolf world since this assumes multiple night kills, and multiple night kills confirms Tps as town.)

[Celirra]

Did prec just sheep me

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Did prec just sheep me

what he proposed is really interesting and no one had talked about it

he did the exact opposite btw, he said Tps should not only always hide, but hide in a manner that attempts to incentivize the wolf and the serial killer to try and find him tonight. In short, and you just have to read it again to understand it, the incentive is actually a decentive because they can lose if they make their best play.

its very outside the box, and its not something I think I could've thought of without seriously dedicating time to it. It impressed me.

But no, he did not sheep you.

[Celirra]

AlSo WhErE iS fUnNyGuRl AnD wHy Is ShE nOt DoInG aNyThInG

[Funnygurl555]

Originally Posted by Celirra

AlSo WhErE iS fUnNyGuRl AnD wHy Is ShE nOt DoInG aNyThInG

sorry, laziness. it feels like the game's solved.

[Celirra]

As a heads up I may pass out before eod