TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[Kilgamayan]

The wolves have made their marking decisions, special roles have been rolled for, and PMs will be handed out shortly.

The witness incident will be on a random day, and the human and wolf involved will be chosen by me, also at random. No human is immune to being the witness, and no wolf is immune to being seen by said witness.

The vigilante will work the same as last time: they will post that they are the vigilante and who they wish to kill. I will confirm and remove the killed from the game. Note that the Vigilante can only kill during the day time, and not after the time limit or an insta-lynch has been reached.

Seer and guardian, I await your Night 1 choices. Psychic, obviously, there are four wolves.

[Kilgamayan]

All PMs have now been sent out.

It occured to me while doing this that with no Night 1 kill, the guardian sending me a name is useless. Therefore, the seer is the only person I need to hear from tonight. The guardian will get double duty on Night 2.

EDIT: Character guide.

1. blahblah18 (mast414)
2. nforcer06164 (nforcer06164)
3. JurseyRider734 (Xtrialan Derrorx)
4. lightdarkness42 (lightdarkness42)
5. chardish (This Is Chardish)
6. Tasselfoot (Tasselfoot)
7. aperson (Phonem Recursive)
8. flypie743 (flypie743)
9. whorlichan (WhorliChan)
10. talisman (stressreliefball)
11. Kefit (Kefit42)
12. mead1 (Fhqwhgads703)
13. Tps222 (Tps7910)
14. Spheroid (spheroiddice)
15. GuidoHunter (ElSoyokaze)
16. Neonatrias (The Last Kitsune)
17. alainbryden (NEIGH006)
18. Matthew4444 (TheDarkNerd4444)

[Kilgamayan]

Disclaimer: I have never in my life claimed to be a good writer or a comedian. You guys asked me to do both. Remember that while reading the story you chose.

- Day 1 -

<whorlichan> And so I told Tass
<whorlichan> "You know, it's...pretty small."
<chardish> Hahaha.
<Tasselfoot> Whorli...shut up
<whorlichan> Heck, even mine is bigger
<Tasselfoot> maybe, but my house gets more channels than yours
<GuidoHunter> You really going to take that from your woman?
<lightdarkness> Oh, TVs...haha
<whorlichan> Um, of course.
<blahblah18> What were you thinking, LD?
<lightdarkness> Uh, nothing
<Kilgamayan> What the hell?
<blahblah18> Right.
<Kilgamayan> Okay, who just tried to send me a virus?
<Kefit> o_O
<aperson> Wasn't me.
<Kilgamayan> The details were written really poorly, too
<Kilgamayan> Like a 7-year-old was typing
<talisman> Did you check to see who it was from?
<Kilgamayan> No, I closed the window without thinking.
<alainbryden> No one's tried to send me anything...
<Kilgamayan> Whatever, I'm not tolerating this.
<Kilgamayan> One of you has to go until they've cleaned up their system.
<Kilgamayan> You guys are smart enough to decide who has to go.
<lightdarkness> Hey, this is like the time we all met in Michigan!

---

It is now Day 1. Remember: while there was no kill last night, there were still other happenings, so you don't have absolutely nothing to go on.

You have 60 hours to vote (1:15 AM Monday EST). 10 votes is an instalynch.

[lightdarkness]

ABOUT TIME!

EDIT: lol at story.

[Kilgamayan]

Jesus, you really do stake these topics out.

[JurseyRider734]

I was waiting a long time, too. I've already found something "suspicious" from someone, but i'll wait until everyone else is on to talk about stuff.

Okay, here are just some initial thoughts .

Wolves are always random in every TWG. This means that the most imbecilic newbie has just as much of a shot of being a wolf as the most seasoned veteran. Therefore, it's usually the smartest thing to do to seer experienced players: if they come up human, integrate them into an alliance; if they come up wolf, have them killed. This has been pretty much the standard method of play since game II.

There is now a new variable in the game that requires us to rethink our strategy: the master is no longer random. If a lesser known, newbieish player happened to wind up with master wolf, it's almost guaranteed that the wolves are going to give it up to a more experienced player (who they mark.) However, if an experienced player gets master wolf due to random chance, it's unlikely that he would give it up to a newbie.

The master wolf is good for absolutely nothing unless he gets seered. This means that out of the two people (original master wolf and mark), the master wolf is GOING to be the one of them who is more likely to be seered. So let's look at all the possible scenarios here:

1) Original master = newbie, mark = experienced, new master = experienced
2) Original master = experienced, mark = experienced, new master = experienced

I think it's a fair assumption that the mark is an experienced player...I don't think the wolves would want to jeopardize their chances by recruiting a lesser known or inexperienced player.

This means two things for us:
1) We should assume that at least one of the wolves - probably the master wolf - is an experienced player.
2) The seer should NOT SEER experienced players.

The second one is a bit trickier to understand. If a person comes back human, that's not a definite reading, but if a person comes back wolf, you know 100% they're a wolf. Since everyone has an equal shot at being a regular plain vanilla wolf, but experienced players are more likely to be master, that means that randomly picking people - especially lesser known players - is probably going to come up with wolves better than only going after experienced players.

In a nutshell, we're far more likely to get false positives seering experienced players. It's probably best to go down the list and think "Who wouldn't the wolves pick to be marked?" Flypie, Mead, Neonatrias, TPS, Matthew, and Spheroid pop out immediately as unlikely masters...but seer, it's up to you to try and figure out who the wolves wouldn't pick, and go after them. Your chances of nabbing a wolf are far, far greater - and you can integrate the players you recruit into the alliance with far greater certainty.

If this is a game that's going to be won by an alliance of newbies, so be it. Of course, I'd still prefer to be around when it's over, of course

[GuidoHunter]

chardish, your post worries me a bit. From your logic it sounds like we should be trying to lynch the vets who are likely to have been marked because, well, we don't want a good master wolf around manipulating everyone because they're not getting seered (or are).

Your logic is sound, so I'm not going to take this as a "don't try to seer my good wolf friends or me" ploy (at least yet), but still, the implications are quite interesting.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

Originally Posted by GuidoHunter

chardish, your post worries me a bit. From your logic it sounds like we should be trying to lynch the vets who are likely to have been marked because, well, we don't want a good master wolf around manipulating everyone because they're not getting seered (or are).

NO. DEFINITELY NOT. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD WE LYNCH VETERANS SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY'RE VETERANS.

Lynchings should be dealt with normally. Veterans do have a higher chance of being the master, but there are many veterans in this game, and only one master. Lynching veterans just because they're veterans is the stupidest thing we could do. I honestly doubt we're going up against a Wolf Dream Team and can rule out all other possibilities.

I'm just saying that the mark/master thing influences who we should be seered. But it should not influence who gets lynched (unless, of course, the seered person comes back wolf.)

[Tasselfoot]

Chardish.... did you fricking read my mind? I was going to post the EXACT same thing. Seriously... who told you about that strategy? Because I told blah, and if he told you... I want credit for my theory. If it was all your logic, then grrrrrrrrrr at you sir for taking away my thunder and giving me basically nothing to say.

I 100% agree with what you said, from top to bottom, and was going to say the same thing. At the same time, I'm going to be looking harder at Blah, Chardish, and Alain. Maybe aperson and Kefit also.

Because the only thing I DO know is that I'm god damn pissed off that the wolves didn't pick me to be the master wolf. Frankly, I'm insulted. Me as the MW = Insta wolf win (as I won't be stupid and IM the person who we killed before its posted again, the ONLY reason I was killed off in... twg12?, I think it was). Whatever. This just makes me even more pissed off, and I'll be damned if I don't do all I can to bring these wolves down for disrespecting me.

Oh... one thing Chardish... I would disagree slightly on your seer strategy. The seer shouldn't go for the LEAST likely people, as I thought the wolves could potentially pick one of those as a wolf in an attempt to circumvent the logic presented. My feelings would be to seer the "average" players... Jurs, Talisman, TPS, nForcer... maybe throw Guido in at the high end and Neon in at the low end... I'd say the least likely MW would be from that average group. So, in this ONE instance, I'll be willing to take that back roll, as it is better for the team. The seer should get people he can trust, and frankly... myself, chardish, blah, alain, etc just can't be trusted 100%.

IF THE SEER SAW A POWER PLAYER LAST NIGHT, THEY SHOULD NOT CONTACT THEM UNTIL DAY 2. THAT WAY, IF THEY ARE THE MW THEN A 2ND PLAYER KNOWS WHO THEY ARE AND CAN AVENGE THEM...

[mead1]

Wow, the topic is finally open. As of now, I haven't talked to anyone, but I agree with chardish on that the more experienced players are far more likely to be the MW. I'll post again if I find anything of note.

[Tasselfoot]

Also... everyone should join the AIM Chat:

TWGXV

[lightdarkness]

Originally Posted by Kilgamayan

Jesus, you really do stake these topics out.

Lucky timing, I was in AP CS.

I'll admit that I originally thought of lynching someone like Tass because he would likely be marked + MW. HOWEVER, After reading this, I realized that maybe the wolves would not mark Tass for just that reason... This added variable doesn't help us at all because for all we know, the wolves thought of this too.

[Tasselfoot]

Jay, you have to assume that the wolves went through the exact same thought process that you, chardish, or I went through... and in the end, it all comes down to a "which cup has the poison" debate. It could go on and on. And, IMO, because of that, the real weight needs to not be in the strategy, but in who will best help guarentee a wolf win. And clearly, that is a power player given MW powers. Therefore, that HAS to be the main focus.

But, at the same time, as chardish said, we can't just be lynching me or blah or chardish JUST because we have the aura of being the best. Believe me, I'd like to go and vote Chardish right now, cause frankly, he seems like the wolves best choice to me.... but, at the same time, I don't want to falsely kill a powerful human.

[flypie743]

"Who wouldn't the wolves pick to be marked?" Flypie, Mead, Neonatrias, TPS, Matthew, and Spheroid pop out immediately as unlikely masters...

Ouch...Thanks Chardish ;D

I completely agree with the MW & seer thing.

[lightdarkness]

Here is something that just pop'd into my head.

What if a power player got MW right off the bat? They would have no need to bring in a power player, and just mark a low profile player to be a wolf...

Originally Posted by lightdarkness

Here is something that just pop'd into my head.

What if a power player got MW right off the bat? They would have no need to bring in a power player, and just mark a low profile player to be a wolf...

The only thing I can think of is the age old "stupid, or wolf?" question. It really hurts the wolves to have a stupid person on the wolf side (not that i'm accusing anyone in this game of being stupid.) In almost every TWG someone gets lynched because they were being stupid even though they weren't a wolf (with the exception of blah last game, who was being stupid even though he was a wolf.)

(Aside: also, for this reason, I'd guess that blah isn't the mark. Pretty much everyone knows that he failed miserably at being a wolf last time, and I don't think that they'd let him have another shot at it.)

But my point is, the more people on the human side who are likely to be stupid and act wolfish, the more that helps the wolves. I don't think the wolves have any good reason to recruit a lesser-known player, and they'd have to be brain dead to give him master. If I were a wolf, I'd rather have someone like Tass, Guido, Alain, myself, etc. on the team than some newbie.

Therefore, I'm confident that at least one experienced player is a wolf.

[Neonatrias]

That's still going to put us in the same situation in the end. We'd still end up with three regular wolves and a powerful MW...

However, there's a worse scenario. Say a power player was chosen MW already...And then they brought in another power player as the last wolf, and made them MW instead? Then we'd have a power player MW, a power player normal wolf, and two others...

In either case, we'd have a good bit of trouble on our hands.

[Tasselfoot]

LD and Neon... did you not read Chardish's initial post?

Hence the comment about being stupid. He (as I would have had I been home to post it before he did) clearly stated the 2 scenarios... #1, recruit a power player and make them MW. But, #2... MW is already a power player. And, in that case, the obvious choice is to bring in the most powerful person possible with little to no chance to be a wolf. Although Chardish said something slightly different. He said that in case #2, the wolves would recruit another power player. I disagree with that completely, as there is too strong a chance of them being seered... even with all of us agreeing that the seer should not seer the power players. Night 1 alone could bring down that powerful recruit, etc etc. That is why I think that my #2 scenario is a better strategy. Whether that is what happened or not, who knows.

If a wolf is doing a good enough job of acting human, he's going to be pretty low on the seer priority list. However, if a more mid-level player (I'd put Kefit, LD, aperson, whorli in this list) is acting kind of iffy, or half-and-half, they might be more likely to draw the seer's attention.

Any dead wolf is not good for the wolves, even if it's a newbie - that's one more day they have to stay alive. Thus I don't think the wolves would want to take a chance by recruiting anybody but a power player.