TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

[DaBackpack]

Actually, gonna do dead people's reads first.

[DaBackpack]

About Freezinice:

Way earlier in D0 he started a thunderdome between himself and FFA. How characteristic of him is this as either alignment? I can very well interpret this as, "I'm gonna feign machismo/confidence in this read I have so I appear more invested in solving. But I'm never gonna be in danger because I have numbers on my side"

In other words, the thunderdome is a performance of a logical gamble when in reality there's no risk--- but it's free town points

[DaBackpack]

The weird (?) thing is that after that thunderdome didn't pan out, he ended up placing his vote on Ulli, even when FFA was still an option for a lynch

[DaBackpack]

Some compiled reads of the dead:

FFA:

active players I don't feel great about:
freezin,plop

less active players I feel mostly okay toward:
yoshl, raeko

That's about it. FFA thinks Freezin's read on Sunfan is bullshit:

<to freezin:> it's not something I've ever attributed to sunfan and it's not something I've ever seen you attribute to sunfan

in fact it most closely reminded me of sunfan's vote and dip on WV in that other game- who was a wolf
so ye that's p much it

sunfan however refutes FFA's scumread on Freezin, and that seems to appease FFA a bit.

FFA doesn't vote this phase, and then dies.

Ulli:

She calls one of YoshL's D0 posts towny. When forced to pick between T-Force and FFA, she picks FFA, and then dies.

Xiz:

I want to vote Ull simply because sunfan wont vote ull for just posting roles.
DBP will show up 20m before EOD
Funny/Force I see as T/W or T/T
haku off the table, feels towny
raeko super light towny, liked the "yeah i thought the same thing" quote, felt natural
YoshL saying "nah this isnt a mindmeld" to sunfan is really towny, so they are off the table

don't really care about anyone else

Voted for Ulli because he thought about a Ulli/sunfan wolf pairing. We know this isn't true, but might still reflect on sunfan as to how he defended her. Raeko light town, YoshL gets a strong townread based on a single post on D0.

For the mistrial EoD, he votes Ulli.

By the end of the phase he felt extremely strong that FG/T-Force aren't W/W. He said they might be T/W, but is leaning more towards T/T.

Then T-Force wagon started (FG had her vote there first. FG convinced YoshL to vote for T-Force, but FG eventually swapped off. YoshL and Haku stayed.). Xiz was suspicious of the growing momentum on T-Force all of a sudden. But we know that the only person left alive on the T-Force wagon is YoshL. Then Xiz dies.

FG:

She initially notes raeko town, and sunfan as "ok." This later grows into sunfan becoming a town read. She makes a remark about being unimpressed by Freezin, and that his reads list was "a bunch of nothing."

Towards EoD:

She votes T-Force, probably for the meme at first. As mentioned above, she sells YoshL on voting for T-Force, making him the second vote on a T-Force wagon.

i think we're seeing the same thing

but alas t-force, we're basically never on the same team so you know i've gotta do this

surprised this is more of a one way thing though. where's the rivalry?

FG develops a real scumread on T-Force, worried that T-Force isn't playing along with the game. T-Force responds with something like, "that shitposting only applies for the first 24 hours" (is this even true?) and then things turn serious. This hurts FG's feelings and she moves her vote to Plopadop.

The next day, she gets shit over her swap to Plop. Response:

plop is always shady to me, but what was really shady here was his insistence on an ffa lynch over the alternatives. i feel like he should've known that wasn't be the best move here

the ulli flip gives me more confidence in going after the people who decided to shade both of them early on

^I don't think she ever delivered on this promise, but it's a good idea. We know now that the KitB was T/T and this is useful in the context of a reread.

Shadow asks how the fuck to read Plopadop. FG response:

wait really? i feel like he's rolled wolf quite a bit in the recent games i've played with him. the biggest thing i've observed from him is he's able to see through some of the bs misreads that people put out, which i guess shows some tmi

I'm guessing that a wolf Plop is more likely to make astute defenses of town players because... he knows they're town. This is worth checking out this phase.

Then she gets replaced.

Subaru:

Unfortunately Subaru really doesn't give us a lot, because he decided to ISO his own slot (???). This is the closest thing we have from him (a bit jumbled, from my notes):

Top three town so far is

1. DBP
2. Freezin
3. somewhat Haku


Top three wolf is

1. Plop
2. ???
3. SOMEWHAT TF.

I'm not 100% certain TF could be one, but based on DBP's wall regarding the worlds between FG/TF and TF/Plop, I'm more convinced on the side that Plop could be one. I put "somewhat" for TF because the biggest reason outside of DBP's wall is because I've seen him in very many scumreads on top of that.

I left #2 blank because in all honesty I haven't been able to think of three candidates.

Haku I'm willing to put townlean for now because although he's had a few kerfuffles, I feel he's trustworthy to me, at least. I'm still keepin that redflip shenanigans you were tryna pull with Shadow a while back in mind, though.

I'm trusting DBP because he's one of the few people I saw that proposed stuff outside of the TF/FG combo, despite one of the other combos still including TF.

Freezin in all honesty is just a gutread. I don't have very much reasoning behind it. I'm still not

Other than that, I'm gonna take Shadow's advice and just chill in the present for now cuz I need to get actual present info.

Later on, I think Plop responded with a big wallpost. This wallpost brings Subaru's read on Plop back to null, and he starts to grow more suspicious of YoshL. Then he dies.

---------------------------------

Haku's ISO is... gonna have to be its own thing. But you will notice a very consistent trend amongst the dead people: Plop is consistently scum.

[DaBackpack]

FWIW, every single person in this game (besides sunfan) has expressed suspicion of Plopadop and never really changed their minds on him.

(I'll have to go back and make sure I'm not wrong about sunfan. But regardless.)

Plop is like, 90% wolf here, imo.

[Shadow_God_10]

I have to say...

Fatfuck the Death Bringer isn't exactly the name that strikes fear in the hearts of men

I'll be incredibly sad if it's just a string of unfortunate events and he just happens to be town

But I doubt it.

[DaBackpack]

Worth noting that everybody has just been hilariously wrong about most of the game so far. I had to splice out so many scumreads on Ulli, Haku, Xiz, FG...

Not gonna let that affect how I view their reads though. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Shadow_God_10]

If you ISO Haku it gets even funnier

He has thrown almost every dead townie into wolf worlds

[Shadow_God_10]

I guess I should read that giant Plop post again... There could be some insight and solving tools in there if he's revealed as a wolf

[Shadow_God_10]

Something I noted in the Plop post....

He somehow knows how to solve the unsolvable Haku...

and has Sunfan as town

and both of them have Freezin' as their top wolf...

[DaBackpack]

Like. Haku's last major read is that Plop is a wolf.

Is there more that I'm missing or isn't this like, really easy today?

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Like. Haku's last major read is that Plop is a wolf.

Is there more that I'm missing or isn't this like, really easy today?

This is the same problem I'm having

Every conclusion that I come to sounds so incredibly simple it's almost stupid to even believe

[DaBackpack]

I still have a lot of work to do--- gonna look directly at Plop's contributions now, but I feel pretty good about lynching Plop today. Current headspace: Plop/Freezin/YoshL in that order

[Shadow_God_10]

I should be making mental notes of who I should be blocking based off your stuff here.

[DaBackpack]

Moreover, Plop defending himself to Sunfan like this here also is not W/W

[DaBackpack]

To be more concise, maybe.

Wolf partners have a very hard time interacting with each other in thread. The reason is because, in the context of pushing an agenda, they have no reason to.

Towns interact with towns and wolves because they want to solve the game.
Wolves interact with towns because they need to trick town and push them to make mislynches.

Why do wolves need to interact with wolves? Because people will notice if they don't. So wolf-wolf communication in-thread is purely a MAINTENANCE task: it's just something you sometimes have to do. And, unlike the other cases, these conversations are necessarily fake, performative.

That's why it can really look stilted when two wolves talk to each other in thread. They're only doing it because they "have to." Plus, it's super hard! It can be harder to talk to your fellow wolves than it would be to talk to towns. As a rule of thumb, you rarely observe meaningful, compelling wolf dialogue, and many times you'll notice that some wolf pairs just flat-out do not talk to each other unless they have to.

YoshL at least took the initiative to respond to Plop's observation because he knows this. He knows that he has to talk to his partners or else he looks bad. The problem is, as I pointed out, it is clear that YoshL/Plop's interaction exists only for its own sake. Nothing changes as a result of this conversation. In fact, if you pay attention, YoshL's post actually talks past Plopadop. And Plopadop, in response, terminates the conversation, and they both move on like nothing happened.

[DaBackpack]

I'm not nearly done to finishing but I 100% expect to see more of the same pattern here: Plop and/or YoshL staging useless conversations and then quickly dropping them to actually get shit done.

If I'm lucky, the third compadre is actually just Freezinice.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by flashflash account

active players I don't feel great about:
haku, shadowgod, freezin, xiz, plop

less active players I feel mostly okay toward:
funnygurl, yoshl, raeko

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

How come you don't feel good about freezin? And how do you feel about yoshl's more recent posts/activity? Also, which post was the red flag post you mentioned earlier?

I've got all I need!!



Plopadop. See you in court!!

[Shadow_God_10]

DBP quick question for you:

Are you considering the posts and interactions from an emotional standpoint as well?

Like, for me, I get 0 emotion from YoshL when I read through his stuff

compared to maybe... We'll use Trevor as an example

Trevor (If we're town reading him) has a very dry and sarcastic tone which, if you happen to know the dude, you can pick up on

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

DBP quick question for you:

Are you considering the posts and interactions from an emotional standpoint as well?

Like, for me, I get 0 emotion from YoshL when I read through his stuff

compared to maybe... We'll use Trevor as an example

Trevor (If we're town reading him) has a very dry and sarcastic tone which, if you happen to know the dude, you can pick up on

Sometimes. YoshL is pretty hard to nail down on tone I think, except in rare cases.

I mentioned this earlier but whenever I read Trevor based on tone I think he's wolfing, so I'm trying to... not do that this time.

If I see interesting, authentic emotion I'll point it out, since I do still think it can be useful to analyze outbursts and such