jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

7) andy-o24 - He was kinda UTR and claimed Tracker. Playstyle fits with role expectations, but [...]

[...] it's very hard to evaluate him based on that.

I had a problem with roundbox a bunch of games ago where I was defiant when I saw other players think the same thing as me. I'd probably lean Andy town for that. H&H just have so many inconsistencies that it's hard to just throw the newbie card and be like "well, maybe he did all of this because new".

meh.

tl;dr: I still have H&H/Op in mind and I will have a hard time to reconsider until that PR thing happen.

btw, whoever is town tracker, if you have things in mind that you want to mention for the next phase, you should probably post it now even if it's just theories etc.

[Hateandhatred]

GUYS DONT LYNCH ME. if you do the game ends.

7 players left

1 mislynch + 2 wolf kills = 2town, 2wolves.

if you still want me out by 9AM Eastern Time, I will request the modkill so that we survive. that way, at least one wolf will be out.

I litterally left work to type this, so PLEASE WAIT!

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

1 mislynch + 2 wolf kills = 2town, 2wolves.

Wolves don't have 2 killing powers, only one. There's another phase at the very least.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

I will request the modkill so that we survive.

Huh, convince yourself really hard that this cannot be a strategy.

Modkills are not supposed to a voluntary gameplay element.

[Hakulyte]

be*

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

GUYS DONT LYNCH ME. if you do the game ends.

7 players left

1 mislynch + 2 wolf kills = 2town, 2wolves.

if you still want me out by 9AM Eastern Time, I will request the modkill so that we survive. that way, at least one wolf will be out.

I litterally left work to type this, so PLEASE WAIT!

Did you even bother reading the op or the rules or anything

[Hakulyte]

Did my first full reread of the thread.

Collected a bunch of quotes I considered interesting. Kind of changed my mind.

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

I'd like to, but I can't possibly disprove that. However Ill just say that my strategy doesnt involve me being power town

Like I said, no power town involved. Im not saying I am not a power town, just saying that it's irrelevant.

However for the sake of argument, -IF- I am a power town, lynch Rapta. I already have two votes and it'd be a waste if I died

If you're really the Town Tracker, that's setting up a lynch on Rapta for the next phase where you don't have proof which could lose the game for town if we decide to trust you after seeing your assumed flip.

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

I could also be bluff counterclaimed by a wolf and ruin my entire strategy, on top of being distrusted. Plus, it's illegal to post a screenshot, otherwise it'd make this much easier.

And as far as getting lynched... Like I said, I'll see further development first. My refusal isn't final. Latest I can post anyway is Monday morning, then I have to paint my appartment. That gives the rest of you half a day to decide afterwards.

That being said, if I claimed tracker or watcher, it'd be much easier for the wolves to get me without traces. And if I claimed regular town, they might not get me at all. I much prefer doubt for now.

Also combine what I said about wolves having it easy and you pressing me to reveal what I am... Man you're suddenly sounding suspicious too.

I'll be back in the morning for real now, Vita is out of batteries.

You know, the main thing that you got going for yourself is that you have a progression to identify you as the Tracker. You had "that plan" from the first phase with the Rapta vote that looks awkward etc.

Everything makes sense until we try to understand why you wanted Rapta lynched and you kind of provided information about that even if it's still pretty weird.

Andy kind of got here out of nowhere and his reads seems to align with mine for the game. That being said, when it comes to Andy's progression for solving the game/interactions, I'm kind of surprisingly also left in a situation where I don't have much information. This is happening because I posted too much and created a situation where we can just sheep my reads if it feels convenient.

Originally Posted by sanzath

I'm seriously questioning the soundness of mass claiming if nobody has any actual info. If both roles are revealed, tracker-immune wolf kills the watcher, or vice-versa, and no new info can be gained at all during that night. Is that really what you want, Haku?

Do you think it was a bad idea at this point in the game? I'm still liking the idea especially because it led to a counterclaim surprisingly and we're pretty much guarantee 1/2 wolf at this point.

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx

If H&H claims Watcher with no counterclaim, Rapta is Tracker Immune Wolf.

Okay, this is where the game gets a little weird. Andy/xXOpKillerXx starts making sense for me here.

Originally Posted by Rapta

I really hope you aren't the tracker trying to lay low OP, because it's not working. If PR, claim now.

OP claimed VT. H&H is Tracker with a check on me. We're straight up into nonsense right now.

Originally Posted by andy-o24

Since we agreed to hardclaim, I'm the tracker.

I tracked WaywardVagabond and I can confirm he visited Hakulyte. I figured if one of the first timers rolled PR, they'd probably target Hakulyte since he had the most presence in D0, so I'd target another player I knew was skilled.

Why WaywardVagabond out of everyone? That is by far the most surprising claim imo. It just feel incredibly convenient and I feel like we had plenty of other targets that made a lot more sense for a check/visit.

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx

Haku, it doesn't matter what he claims, he should be lynched. Unless you find a flaw in my last post, all scenarios lead to lynching H&H for town win.

For logic purposes:

Say we lynch H&H:

He flips VT (wtf scenario but w/e): Unless he fcked up even worse and simply voted Rapta for no good reason, Haku/Sanz are the wolves. Solved.

Haku/Sanzath is in a lynch pool that only contain 1 wolf. That's not a thing.

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx

He flips Tracker: Andy/Rapta are wolves. Solved.

That logic fell apart the moment H&H said he checked me.

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx

He flips Watcher: Can't possibly happen. Solved.

-shrugs-

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx

He flips Wolf: Either Sanz or Haku is wolf, but I believe PRs can solve that next night, right ? The combo Rapta/H&H as wolves is the last possibility however and I wouldn't know how to adress it.

Sanz/Haku doesn't make sense for same reason as above.

Rapta/H&H is actually an interesting one.

H&H voting Rapta could be distancing and if H&H flip wolf, that would make it appear so Rapta is in the other faction.

It's also making sense with the voting wagon on XelNya that ended very quickly.

Rapta agreed with you for the first vote and proceeded to change his mind about what is right at the end of the first phase.

Pairs like Rapta/xXOpKillerXx, Rapta/Hakulyte and Rapta/Sanzath doesn't make sense because we know that there's one wolf in the PRs.

Here's the only possible pairs at this point going purely by mechanics:

H&H/Sanzath
H&H/xXOpKillerXx
H&H/Rapta
H&H/Hakulyte
andy-o24/Sanzath
andy-o24/xXOpKillerXx
andy-o24/Rapta
andy-o24/Hakulyte

At this point, it's all about simplifying and interactions.

H&H/Andy will get solved which should cut in half this list.

You can normally solve me by volume tell in games which means I'm usually town where I have a ton of posts, but this game doesn't really have heavy posters so, I guess I can't really rely on that for self-clearing myself.

I'll just say that my game has been pretty clear in terms of what I've been trying to do.

I also kind of expected wolves to eventually nightkill me because I'm annoying with strategies etc. but if they do that, they're going to be stuck with 1-2 confirmed PRs.

Confirmed players are impossible to argue against to get them mislynched because town players will never agree to lynch a confirmed town. (well, logically speaking)

Originally Posted by Rapta

he soft claimed visiting me in the night, so obviously you guys would lynch me if he is actually a pr

That's a weird posts all things considered because being visited =/= you will die. If you're really vanilla town, nothing will happen. Well, I know the situation changed, but just keep in mind that it leaves a strange impression.

Originally Posted by andy-o24

Sanzath - Town
He's genuinely interested in learning what other players are using to base their opinions. His massive statistics post and understanding of how the wolves could manipulate knowledge of PRs shows investment in solving the game that town players need to win but also initial concern with the mass claim strategy.

Hateandhatred - Wolf
He has been soft claiming a power role since the start of D1 and playing an anti-town game overall. He slammed happily an instalynch on XelNya using personal bias to justify it. You should never instalynch that early unless you have a confirmed wolf.
Now to his strategy, which I'm still not sure I fully understand. He is trying to soft claim PR and convince the non-Quebecs that he won't use his role on them, but he's using that to try and condition the wolves to target Quebecs when he will in fact use his power on Quebecs? It is seriously convoluted.
Top it off with his counterclaim to my hard claim of Tracker because he wasn't around to fake claim with the rest of the townsfolk. It all reads very scummy to me and I want to see him lynched.

xXOpKillerXx - Null trending wolf
I'm having a hard time convincing myself he's fully wolf, but it's things like this that make me think he is a wolf. He's trying really hard to compute the situations to make it seem like he's town trying to solve, but of course as a wolf you wouldn't include yourself as anything but VT. He's been pushing for a lynch on Rapta which I don't think is good right now, but also bussing H&H if they're partners. Seems risky for a first timer and with a game this small.

Rapta - Town
It's posts like these:
158
162
257
that I think look really good for Rapta being town. Genuinely interested in solving the game and not making the same mistakes we made D0. His iso looks pretty clean other than being on the XelNya...wagon I guess you could call it...D0.

Wayward Vagabond - Town
He hard claimed Watcher and no one countered, so I'm inclined to believe he's town. He does not get lynched.

Hakulyte - Town
I wasn't so sure about Haku at the start, but I think he's taking charge appropriately to help solve this game with us. Lots of questions to uncover reasoning and interacting with everyone. The only blemish is I think his wolf meta is effort posting to seem town, but I'd like to continue having a strong town lead to help us figure this game out. He's only a consideration tomorrow.

Not gonna lie, this is a really good post that covers everything I "wanted to see", but in terms of having an unique approach to the game, I feel like I'm not really seeing anything new.

These town placements hint that xXOpKillerXx being wolf mechanically and H&H being wolf.

This feels agenda-ish because it fits perfectly with what I've been trying to do.

You might be thinking; "but Haku, if someone agrees with you and you're town, this is good right?"

The answer is "not really". If I'm wrong and I'm targeting a town, it only makes sense that wolves will want to be my friends and tell me that I'm right.

I feel like Andy is trying to make me lynch H&H who is indeed acting weird, but at same it is H&H.

Originally Posted by sanzath

You already claimed to have tracked him and confirmed his Watcher status though...

That subtle post by Sanzath also made me reconsider that I could be wrong.

Andy's claim looks like a copy/pasta of things said in the game.

H&H's claim looks unique/weird, but it also contains a progression with the first phase of the game and this is important because it means it wasn't invented on the spot.

This is harder to feign.

That means I'm inclined to reconsider and vote andy-o24 surprisingly.

----

Going to sleep.

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Wolves don't have 2 killing powers, only one. There's another phase at the very least.

Wait, so when sanzath said both wolves could be nightkilling both PRs, that couldnt have happened?

[Hateandhatred]

As for voting Rapta so early, I was truly hoping to get immunity from Quebec and get either one more turn as Tracker or be an obvious pick for the watcher (which was my main strategy, but it would have failed hard since WV thought I was a Wolf) for when I get killed, really it's no more complicated. We did wagon on middie, if no more interactions led to anything, that wouldn't have been worse than any other blind vote. But things changed and I got a chance to counterclaim, which is far more valuable than anything I had going on.

Also, of course I'm playing "weird". You guys know me too well, and I'd get suspicion from op, haku and sanz immediately lol, and you know it's true.

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by sanzath

Ok guys, I'm pretty sure he meant "let's vote on who I'm tracking tonight", not "let's vote on who to lynch".

I'm confirming that this is what I meant.

[Hateandhatred]

Ok, I'll try to do my own analysis.

Andy-o24: WOLF. I'm the only one besides him and Wolf #2 to have this info, what's left is convincing you of this... Which isn't going to be easy, but consider that I was actually willing to suicide. I still am, rofl, but me dying doesn't lead to an additonal Town chance now that I know Wolves don't choose between 1 or 2 nightkills.

WV: TOWN WATCHER: Like everyone says, he has hard claimed and didn't get counter claimed. He's almost guaranteed to be Watcher barring a VERY stupid silence strategy by another Town.

Hateandhatred: TOWN TRACKER: I know this because sunfan told me lol.

As for the other 4....

Hakulyte: TOWN: I was having the most doubt against you at the beginning of the game, even after tracking you. But during D1, you are either taking a hell of an opportunity to detail your train of thoughts while we are focused on Andy-o24 (which would make sense to pin you as Wolf for. You did say Andy-o24 was following your reasoning, and if you were a Wolf, you could be coaching him from behind the scenes through wolfchat), but I think you've been a little too over the place for the defense of Town for you to be a Wolf candidate. You do have the most experience, however... Anyway, at this point I'm willing to trust you.

sanzath: TOWN: I think his analysis is the most dedicated to a Town win. I'm very, very sure he's Town.

xXOpkillerXx: TOWN, POSSIBLE WOLF: He needs to bring up more info on his own, otherwise he sounds like he's trying to play it in the background. He's also very prone to changing opinions, which IMO is a very good thing, but again, he could be trying to lynch any Town that wouldn't get him too much suspicion. However he did try to defend me, and that kinda cancels a lot I'd think against you otherwise, since you did it at a time when I had the most lynchvotes, so I say TOWN for now.

Rapta: WOLF, POSSIBLE TOWN: I don't have anything tangible against you lol, I've exposed my strategy very clearly since the beginning, and when voting against you, I didn't have the slightest bit of suspicion, nor was I even willing to truly defend this. With the way the game has evolved, it became irrelevant to point fingers at you. However, while you did nothing very concerning, you also happen to be the odd man out in my analysis... So I say Wolf with a little more conviction now, simply out of deduction, but depending on what Haku, sanz or op do, things could clear your name very quickly.

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by sanzath

You already claimed to have tracked him and confirmed his Watcher status though...

Lol 5 posts in a row... but this is pretty interesting.

[the sun fan]

Andy (2)- H&H, Sanzath
H&H (1)- Rapta
Op (1)- WV
Unvote (2)- Op, Andy

[xXOpkillerXx]

I'm done for this phase; gave my opinion on other people's play, tried to make it clear what options we had. You guys are like meta'ing on people you've never played with and it supposedly makes more sense than what I bring to the table so w/e. Will vote Andy and too bad if it's wrong. Still think Andy/Haku and Haku for real if you flip VT (cuz if you're a wolf all your stuff is legit) your reasons are piss poor. "Defend H&H vs Andy" well Duh the reason why I unvoted H&H and try to think about it is because I'm actually trying to make town win and I am Not certain who's lying, even though now I think Andy is more wolf than H&H. WV ffs I know I'm repeating myself I try to see everything from different perspectives in case I missed something... Obviously now I know it's useless af cuz I somehow look wolf even at this point. So yep I'll just go ahead and say like H&H: If I'm lynched, town is doomed.

[twgv]andy-o24[twgv]

[xXOpkillerXx]

andy-o24

[Rapta]

Unvote

[Rapta]

gonna reread

[Rapta]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Inb4 sunfan is lolzing really hard at making us all towns

And there is no wolves

I could have said we are all wolves, but then his evil plans would be rekt by the wolfchat

Just leaving this out there for all of you non wolves

for someone who is not familiar with the mechanics of twg, you sure didn't forget wolf chat

[Rapta]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Well, the only great reasons to pick on someone are if I actually saw you do anything last night, if you blew your cover or if I want to cover myself and think you might be onto something.

But me and Quebec are towners, so you know. there's you, andy and wayward left.

i doubt a wolf h would think to sprinkle this soft claim

[Rapta]

ugh i dont know