TWG XIV - Michigan Meetup - Day 6 - HUMAN VICTORY

[talisman]

Originally Posted by guidohunter

There's been too much jumping on the chardish train for my likes.

If by "too much jumping on the chardish train" you mean "two posts criticizing his vote rationale"....

But anyway, the only other observation I have is that alain seems to be playing a much, I don't know, quieter game than he normally does. Maybe it's just because of the lack of info to work with but I always expected him to be more vocal, not complaining about posting with "Ugh, if I must say something...". I could say the same thing about blah, too.

Also, in general, I notice alot of people being very cautious in their posts, especially with votes (I am probably one of these people), caching votes within several layers of caveat and such: "This is just what I think... it could easily be wrong, though, so don't take it too seriously" etc.

One final observation is that with tass undoubtedly telling the blues not to stick their necks out too far and the wolves obviously not wanting to stir up much conversation, the humans are left in the middle with nothing (Ok, a day's voting history and two night's lynchings) to talk about. Perhaps that's why it's been so quiet.

[Kilgamayan]

I have not yet seen a good reason to change my vote for blah from last round, so I'm going to stick with it.

[Tasselfoot]

As I am the first to say to anyone, my TWG game is based around facts/voting rather than behavior. So, I'm not so good with the behavior differences. Others have pointed this out, and I must say that I don't disagree with them...

Alain is generally the 1st person to give lots of information on many people and THEN make a vote, instead this game, on back to back days, has given reasoning on ONE person and voted them. Not sure what to make of this, but the 2 people I was seriously looking at on day 1 were Alain and Blah, and nothing has changed this game.

I'm leaning towards Alain at this point.

[mead1]

That is about what I said on Day 1 Tass, Alain has just been about 180 degrees different this game. Now that I know what the "chardish note" is, I don't have that much suspicion on him. But as on Day 1, I feel my vote will rest on alain. He just isn't being who everyone knows he is. Also, he has voted kefit and whorli, for very little reason at all, it seems. Maybe it is just harder to give lots of info when you already know who the wolves are...

[alainbryden]

You asked for something to discuss, and I gave you something to discuss. Do not first vote for me because you think I'm being inactive, and then vote for me because you think I am trying to hard to justify a vote for someone (which I wasn't, as you would see if you read the 'stab' context of my previous post.). Tass I can't go listing behaviours of everyone, because there has been little more than 3 posts, 2 relevant perhaps, for each person in this game. I also can't go defending people as I usually do, because no one is making an honest attack on anyone, except for on myself at this point.

I am, as always, trying, in spite of what little there is, to discuss.

Mead, I find it hard to take your voting pattens seriously after your rediculous revenge vote on Chardish.

[flux_]

I'm sticking with my vote from last round because I still feel that way. Also, the point tass and mead brought up make me more sure of it.
alain

I really wish blah would, you know, post something. I want to see what his feelings are, and what he has to say after tass brought up the point about the blah/kilga/chardish thing.

[HansSky]

Oh yeah, this is my death post.

I miss you guys.

[mead1]

@ alain: I don't know what about my vote for chardish was ridiculous, the part where I was suspicious of his ridiculous vote for me, or the part where I was woefully uninformed about his note that aparrently most people knew about.

[QreepyBORIS]

Guido.

That was to avoid a phantom and an instalynch, while I think things over a little bit.

Yeah, lame.

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga's guide to...wait, instalynches?

mead: 1 (chardish)
Kefit: 1 (alain)
blah: 1 (Kilga)
alain: 2 (mead, Flux)
Guido: 1 (Qreepy)

Still to vote: 8 (blah, Gamepro, Guido, Jenova, Kefit, talisman, Tass, whorli)

Um, Alain? There's a very big difference between 'discussing' and 'making a vote'. When you make a vote (unless you're acting out of stupidity and voting to avoid a phantom, which is ridiculous), you're declaring your belief (or at least suspicion) that they're a wolf.

Despite the fact that you're a good player, everyone has their bad moods, and I'm not willing to rule that out. However, I'll start reading your posts way more carefully now.

[whorlichan]

Because Tass is forcing me to...here's a post.

Everyone's voting for someone else, and no one has a solid reason for it. I'm going to reread the thread tomorrow when I have some free time and then make a vote. But at this moment, I honestly have no clue who is suspicious and who is not.

[blahblah18]

There isn't much going on, but frmo all the people I've spoken to, Chardish has given me the worst vibe. As per what Kilga said, I also didn't feel that chardish's opening pregaime msg implied a guarantee of hans being blue, but rather it seemed almost like it was some kind of plan of his to determine or figure something out. When I brought forth the idea of maybe Tass theoretically possibly being a wolf, he goes off on me, ignores any factual points I made, and starts accusing me for snooping around so much. Clearly there was something going on between all parties, and for now, he feels like the strongest choice

[alainbryden]

Allright well, even though kefit didn't get the chance to respond to anything I said, I've got bigger fish to fry, ie flux.

Since the beginning of that game, that fool has said nothing at all about anything (2 post grand total, each a vote). Just now, when he votes, he just says "I vote for so on and so forth's reasons" even though their 'reasons' have already been argued and disproved. You also say you vote because your feelings are the same. Did you not read my response to your post? Incase you didn't, I'll summarise for you: you are ignorant. You're reiterating suspicions I've allready defeated. What's the point of posting anymore? Really. It doesn't change anything, you hardly skim it. I don't even think you read the thread. You just look at the bolded names and the name of the person making this vote. You, sir, are the epithome of bandwagonning and it pisses me right off, so if you want to play tag, tag, you're it.

Mead, his vote for you wasn't rediculous, it had foundation. Yours was an angry retort. And it has nothing to do with the fact that you didn't see chardish's letter. I haven't even seen it yet. I'm sure it's irrelevant, or Tass would have showed it to me when he asked me if I'd seen it.

I was hoping to get more information today, but I haven't yet. That said, I have to vote for Blah. This is not a revenge vote, this is an honest suspicion vote. I now suspect you far more strongly than I did Mead.

Particularly becasue I've had about 5 or 6 conversations with you over AIM where you've asked me to explain my crypticness over night 1, and I have. You've thrown out conspiracy theories suggesting that I could be a wolf, Tass could be a wolf, Hans (before he was dead) could be a wolf, etc. In all these conspiracy theories, you've mentioned "some kind of a plan" or "some kind of a wolf plot" without really explaining how it could work. In the few instances where you've clarified yourself, the plan is still really infeasible (why would the guardian tell ANYONE who he is before Night 1, for example?) Bottom line: You're smarter than this, and something really fishy is up now with your voting for me without even talking to me in the past 24 hours. You're too smart to play this off as stupidity.

[Kefit]

Alain, you are right - my heart isn't in this game. These last few days I have been assaulted with midterms for my two hardest classes, which completely destroyed any desire I had to do anything else requiring actual thought.

I don't think I am alone with this, though. Judging from the posts in this thread, everyone seems rather apathetic towards this game. I'm having a difficult time picking out people who are acting odd, since everyone seems to be acting odd right now.

Now I find myself having to place a vote before I leave for work today, and I still don't have much to go off of. Alain's analyzations seem halfassed compared to his usual, but then again so do everyone's posts. For some reason Kilga isn't sitting well with me, but I can't put my finger on why. blah is really bugging me though, as if there is anyone I would expect to be active right now, it would be him.

Is this a good enough reason to vote? Not particularly, but its better than I have for anyone else, and I gotta go get ready for work.

[lightdarkness]

blah: 4 (Kilga, Chardish, Kefit, PHANTOM)
alain: 2 (mead, Flux)
Guido: 2 (Qreepy, PHANTOM)
Chardish 1 (blah)
Flux 1 (alain)
Jenova 1 (PHANTOM)

Still to vote: 7 (Gamepro, Guido, Jenova, talisman, Tass, whorli)

[Kilgamayan]

Phantom = .5 votes, not 1.

[blahblah18]

ok wow, I come back from Ben Folds concert to see this...

chardish, my conversatino with you was to help assuage my fears of Tass perhaps being a wolf. I offered up reasons that would say he was vs. reasons that would say he wasn't, and you basically laughed them off and said I must be a wolf for even thinking such thoughts. My vote for you was as stated, and I haven't had time to talk to you or much of anyone this game, but I've given my reasons, and as I post this I'm talking to you, so we'll see if maybe one of us can see some light.

I apologize to Kefit for not being as active so far as I would like to be, but its been beyond hectic aroudn here recently, and we should talk at some point as well.

The point I'm trying to bring up to Chardish now, and he is just stonewalling me is this... maybe you guys can at least see where I'm coming from.

Facts
1. Tass was the wolf target night 1
2. Hans was the wolf target night 2

Seemingly Held Opinions
1. The wolves knew Hans was a blue

Now what I recently have been trying to go over with Char(but receiving attacks instead, which throw me off any path I ever come on: I will post these convos after this post) is that it would seem to me to make NO SENSE that the wolves wouldn't have attacked chardish or hans night 1. This note was passed aroudn saying if Chardish dies, lynch Hans. Why would any logical, sensible person then choose to go after Tass. Clearly he's one of the most likely to be guarded, and clearly there's already some form of intrigue with other characters, thus making a much better choice. Now when I think about this, and think what could justify such action, my first and strognest thought was that a wolf had to be one of the players on the inside. Tass was attacked, so was Hans, it led me to believe at first that Chardish might be a good place to look. And having spoken to him and offered up ideas and rationale behind all decisions made up to this point, he emrely BLOWS THEM OFF and uses them to accuse me of something new. Well I'm not buying it, and all I'm asking for is people to actually think and come up with decisions based on both fact and on logical reasoning. If you need to call the fact that I'm "coming up with rtoo many scenarios" a wolfish behavior, then I apologize for trying to come up with the most logical response for the actions that have so far been taken

[blahblah18]

mastr414: there's no chance tass can be a wolf, is there?
mastr414: i was just thinking
mastr414: and something went down between you hans and him
This Is Chardish: tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny.
mastr414: and it seems you went to him without express knowledge of anything else
mastr414: and assuming one of you and hans is a blue, if not both
mastr414: then he may have known guardian already
This Is Chardish: in order to pull it off, you (the wolves, hypothetical you) would have to know who the guardian is,convince him to guard tass, and then kill tass.
This Is Chardish: now
This Is Chardish: i will explain why this didn't happen.
This Is Chardish: 1) who knows the guardian before anyone's even been guarded? if you're the guardian, you tell no one. there's simply no need to.
mastr414: 1) i would agree except something happened last night
This Is Chardish: 2) if you are going to pull a stunt like that, why risk tass? he's the sweetest plum, why not try it on someone lesser.
mastr414: because tass was the one involved with you and hans
This Is Chardish: tass never spoke to hans
mastr414: he would be the only wolf with such viable information
mastr414: like I said, I don't know the facts
mastr414: I just know something biggish went down
mastr414: tass ahd an inordinate amt of info before night 1
mastr414: and voila, he's wolfed and saved
This Is Chardish: you're reading too far into things.
mastr414: i don't believe it, or even thinks its probable
mastr414: but i'm saying i don't see how it can be ignored
mastr414: normally i wouldn't even think of this
mastr414: but the fact that he was part of something before night 1
mastr414: definately lends the thought some credence
This Is Chardish: because even if you are going to pull a stunt like that, you don't do it on night 1 when any number of things can go wrong
mastr414: its probably the best ngiht to do it
mastr414: A) for the large possibility he'll be guarded anyways
This Is Chardish: you've still ignored my big argument.
mastr414: B) nothing to make anyone assume tht someone else is more worth guarding
mastr414: which one is thaT?
This Is Chardish: why would the guardian tell anyone who he is?
mastr414: i have no clue
mastr414: but hans told you something
mastr414: and you told tass something
mastr414: and there aren't many somethings
This Is Chardish: and you're a wolf, and you're going to take the massive risk that tass isn't guardianed on night 1?
mastr414: A) its not that massive
mastr414: B) it has greater reward
This Is Chardish: risks outweigh possible benefits .
mastr414: not at all
mastr414: it's practically an autowin
mastr414: and think of the risk of someoen else wolfing him
This Is Chardish: only if the seer dies.
mastr414: A) its the same exact risk
mastr414: B) its less reward
mastr414: and thats definately the truth
mastr414: so why would wolves go for tass if he's human
mastr414: if he's guarded, they practically lose
mastr414: if he's not, its just helpful, not game-ending
mastr414: but if tass is wolf and they go for him in a stung
mastr414: if it works, they practically win
mastr414: if it doesn't, it really hurts, but not game-ending
mastr414: you see my contention?
This Is Chardish: hurts too much.
This Is Chardish: 2 wolves in 15 players.
This Is Chardish: you're screwed.
mastr414: i'm just saying, SOMEONE tried to wolf him
This Is Chardish: you need to kill 11 to win without a single loss of one of yours.
mastr414: you broughtg up risk vs reward
mastr414: risk vs reward leans more towrads the wolves doing it as a ploy then as a kill a human
mastr414: thats my only point
mastr414: yes i believe its bad for both
mastr414: but the fact that it happened means that hat fact is irrelevent
This Is Chardish: quite frankly, your point sucks. you're so desperate to find conspiracy theories in our actions that you're ignoring the obvious in favor of the far-fetched.
mastr414: lol A) great response
mastr414: B) I just want people to be open to possibilities
mastr414: C) I really wanted you to say "scott, that's impossible tass didn't know who the guardian was"
This Is Chardish: hehe. why C?
mastr414: because then i'd know its impossible
mastr414: but it seems that you can't tell me that
mastr414: which is why i fear that it could be a possibility
mastr414: eh? :-\
This Is Chardish: nothing's impossible in TWG.
This Is Chardish: some things, however, are simply too inconceivable to merit being taken seriously.
mastr414: im' just saying
mastr414: if he knew the guardian in advance
mastr414: its not inconceivable in the least
This Is Chardish: what kind of idiot guardian gives themselves away to anyone on night 1
mastr414: thats not what i asked
mastr414: so you're telling me he didn't know the guardian?
This Is Chardish: you're making yourself more and more wolfy by the minute.
This Is Chardish: seriously. why would it matter if he knew the guardian or not beforehand?
mastr414: for trying to get a straight answer?
mastr414: think about it!
This Is Chardish: for pushing irrelevant questions.
mastr414: if he did, then he coudl easily know he was being guarded
mastr414: its soo relevant
mastr414: and if you think toherwise, you're blind
This Is Chardish: i'm not sure if he knew the guardian beforehand or not
This Is Chardish: what i'm saying is, i don't think he did.


The above convo took place during day 1, and the main point was me trying to offer an alternative where Tass may be a wolf. Now I honestly don't think he is a wolf, but I was just trying to see what would be necessary for him to be one, and I thought on what woudl be needed from each side.

Synopsis:
Assume Tass is human----
Wolves decide to wolf Tass , if Successful, it greatly boosts their chance of winning, but does not guarantee it, if Not Successful, practically guarantees a win the other way.

Assume Tass is wolf---
If guarded(successful) practically guarantees a win for the wolves what with knowledge of all roles and what not.
If not guarded(unsuccessful) a very serious blow to the wolf team, but doesn't automatically lose them the game.

So it seemed to me that I was just trying to figure out that yes, althoguh it is quite dumb for Tass as a wolf to try and kill himself, it seemed to me even DUMBER for a wolf team to try and take Tass out, and that was my argument, and one of the main foundations Chardish claims to have on voting for me.
Now I just had another conversation with Chardish, where I mentino the fact that perhaps a wolf is someone that knew about Hans between day 1 and night 2, because otherwise they would've just either killed him night 1, or killed chardish night 1 to get hans lynched as per the note, but instead, it was Tass that the wolves went for. I bring this poitn up, and he says that its suspicious that i'm trying to come up with so many hypothetical situations for what might have happened.
To me this is ABSURD. All I'm trying to do, again, is to make sense of the given facts, and come up with a scenario that seems logical within the given framework, and Chardish's continuing sheer ignorance of this and turning everything around to an Attack on me is just ludicrous, and if I could hear any good reason defending any of these actions, I would love to hear them.

I'd also like to hear kilga's reasoning again.