TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

[Haze with a Z]

It’s very random I just notice they are different

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Tbh their entrance was kinda meh but I feel like the only part affecting my opinions was their reads changing for seemingly no reason tbh.

Yeah it was mostly a mind meld. It felt like we were reaching different conclusions but like seeing and saying the same things which seemed towny tbh

Zenith explicitly disagreed with the idea that my posts were contradictory though

[leetic]

Also, where the hell is Zenith? Seems they dipped after I cased 'em

[_Zenith_]

Hello first time able to get on since my last post, let me catch up on this

[_Zenith_]

Before I dissect Leetic's case against me I'll comment on these little posts

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

It’s prob good I didn’t do it then.

Yes I still feel it is leetic but also I did kinda think that you were tunneling me and that if you weren’t the wolf we just lose here regardless so I had to hope you were wolf tbh.

I wouldn't call what I presented a tunnel. I presented my case, logic, and stance against you. I never appealed to the masses about voting you except for explicitly in my case against you that I told people that I think you flew very UTR to the point nobody ever gave you a red lean because you weren't even on the radar before I said something, and then you got into your back and forth with Leetic. Raeko was the only one who commented on what I had to say about it, and she was openly willing to look into you more.

Frankly, I wanted to still vote you instead of either wagon and I chose Raeko. MML/Leetic/Myself was the wagon on her, Haze/Raeko were the votes against Leetic, and I blindly chose to follow MMLs vote (being vocal about intention to lynch me the entire phase to CFD on Raeko right at the end was a catch in my eye).

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Zenith why did you vote raeko to come into today pushing a leetic deep wolf? I don’t remember you pushing or sring raeko at all tbh

See above. Raeko never explicitly did something that I could latch onto for a stronger town read, but I'll admit my town read was purely based on meta and experience with playing with her, she was human and it showed. MML was my only surefire town read.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

This is disconcertingly quiet

Originally Posted by leetic

Also, where the hell is Zenith? Seems they dipped after I cased 'em

Impatience is a wolf tell in f3, just sayin'

Town knows they benefit from using all the time, especially in final.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Ok I finished reading your post now.
I feel like the important questions to be asked to zenith can be boiled down to
Where did you want to vote d1 in the end? Why did you not vote there?
What made you choose to vote raeko over leetic?
Why did you not advocate for voting me yesterday when it seemed like I was your biggest sus. You never even voted me.

d1 I was hardly here for EoD, that's my lack of a vote.
explained
I don't typically vote until nearing the end, and I didn't want to potentially afk park a vote on you.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

Alright, here is why I feel that Zenith is the most likely wolf here.

Contention 1: The Raeko vote

At EoD, wagons were 2-2, with me and MML on Raeko and Raeko and Haze on me. Zenith had the deciding vote here, and went for Raeko. Why? Zenith had me as a paranoia suspicion while having Raeko as solid town and no posts in their progression suggesting that they were reconsidering their read of that slot. As town, they should have voted me, but why not? Consider that Raeko had Zenith as a top wolfread for quite a while, being interested in pushing a Zenith lynch as late as 20 minutes before EoD. Any F3 where Raeko is still alive would be a very difficult position for Zenith to be in, whereas they could expect me and Haze to crossvote based on EoD. There's also the fact that they waited until the last minute to vote, which can be interpreted in a few ways. It could be inertia from sites that don't have hammers, not wanting to get any shit for hammering early, or carefully weighing which vote was better strategically. Still, the fact that they didn't post any reasons why they ultimately were leaning towards or went with a Raeko vote over a vote on me suggests against this being someone trying to solve who's the more likely wolf.

Contention 2: Every dead villager is pointing in Zenith's direction
XelNya - Expressed interest in voting Zenith because "consensus", and tried to switch to voting Zenith at the end but failed because of the hammer
roundbox - Zenith was the target they were pursuing most fervently
Raeko - As mentioned before, was pushing Zenith for a large percentage of D2 and D1 as well
MML - Explicitly townread both me and Haze, Raeko/Zenith was his exact PoE at EoD

Compare to the people who are still alive:
Myself - Did push Zenith for a good portion of D2, but also played devil's advocate to them in many ways
Haze - Pushed Zenith a bit D1, but retracted that push and never really saw them as a priority since

It's ultimately a pretty comfortable position for Zenith at F3, all things considered. While this isn't fully condemning on its own, when combined with the other evidence it does make you question why they're still alive.

Contention 3: Performativity
When they went into D2, they made a huge stink about how the D1 lynch was terrible and that roundbox was a bad kill. This alone is a red flag, as town isn't typically this performative and Zenith wasn't trying to channel it anywhere productive. When I actually pressed them on their thoughts on the roundbox kill, it's clear that they haven't actually put any thought into it. The only arguments about what they would hope to accomplish as wolf by leaving roundbox alive that made sense were the ones they blatantly lifted from me. It's clear that this wasn't a genuine towny thought and was likely more to deflect from making the kill and also cover up that roundbox had suspected them. Their response to me today is more of the same, acting very certain about why I was suspecting them (and being wrong) and also whinging about me being deepwolf, when the very reason I am still alive is becuase they voted their "townread" over me (the "deepwolf" terminology over "SK" was also lifted from me btw). It all feels very fake and deflective.

Bonus: SBPC

Not actually a part of my argument, but it would be funny if this was the case for basically the entire game.

Let's take a look at a couple of potential counterarguments to this case:

Counterargument 1: They're bold
There are a few problems with this argument at this stage in the game. Yes, some of their pushes like on me D1 and Haze D2 were a little bit bold. However, Haze made some bold moves to, like the tunnel on me D2. Some wolves do win by tunneling and forcing 1v1s with townies, but it is a move that requires risk, so it's not clear that Zenith even wins out on the "boldness" argument. Secondly, the Raeko vote shows when push comes to shove, their convictions don't seem to be super important. Thirdly, one area where Zenith wasn't bold was when voting: they voted someone who hadn't posted yet on D1 then quickly unvoted and never voted that day again, while being the last to vote D2 and waiting until the very last minute to do so. This isn't the behavior of someone too bold to be a wolf.

Counterargument 2: Noob town
Firstly, the Raeko vote was not a noob town move, noob town couldn't resist the temptation to get rid of one of their paranoia suspicions in that scenario. Secondly, this excuse increasingly ceases to be meaningful as the game goes on, a lot of wolfy plays can look "noob town" on the surface so that can't be a meaningful reason to townread this late in the game. Ultimately, it fails to outweigh all the other evidence.

Here's the point in the post where I would vote Zenith if there wasn't a hammer. Still, probably best to wait for Zenith's rebuttal and look at Haze a little bit. Haze hasn't been the best at towntelling, but the game just makes much more sense if Zenith is the wolf.

1) I've seen your name thrown around with the word "inconsistency" and I'll start by pointing out this one: Raeko never once said I was a red lean or thought I was wolfing. Raeko's vote towards me at EoD is, and I quote here,

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

ok guys well anyways I wanted to hear from Zenith but I dunno how much longer we can wait

Zenith tho, is that still the consensus we can all agree on the most or?

Her stance on me has always been a consensus-appealed vote and not one of her own thoughts.

2) This is the only thing I think that I would struggle and argue against, but I can say a few things. Roundbox being locked on sights towards me lost its weight the longer we went. I think d2 interactions yields far more actual information that is tangible and usable than d1 interactions do mainly because d1 wasn't predominantly game solving, it was interactions and stirring the pot. Give us more reasoning behind why you're giving him so much credit, cause his reason behind voting me to begin with was always "people are talking more than Zenith, so I'm okay hitting this slot right now".

Originally Posted by XelNya

I'm just gonna state I would intend to vote zenith because consensus, and information rather than a personal "scum" read

but would otherwise lazy vote lar

Originally Posted by roundbox

zenith
yolo

Originally Posted by roundbox

unvote
looks like I'm voting xel
this feels so lame though

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I'm going back to Zenith

I think Zenith->Raeko win this because Leetic feels town and I think Haze is just bullheaded town

At least that is more likely then Zenith or Raeko. I think Raeko especially is just making bad faith arguments right now

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Raeko

Originally Posted by leetic

Raeko. It just feels like they've been taking advantage of the conflict without really doing their part to push the game forward. Sway me if you can

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Naw I'm with ya

3) Performative behavior is a thing that only you have made a focus in this game and frankly I haven't seen many people use it as any basis behind their deduction so seeing it is kind of new to me, however I think it's by far the weakest reason you can use here because anyone can invoke or simulate emotion, even display it the same way I did about the way d1 EoD went and it will always be NAI.

Regarding NKA, I came out swinging by saying it was not something we should have spent our time even discussing, and frankly it was something you were doing to waste towns time cause every time it was brought up by you it would take someone away from actual game solving. Getting into an argument about if I even said SK or not, or wrongfully used the term was important to the game, or solving it?

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

I do expect Haze to step up their effort today, as they can no longer use the excuse of being new to the thread and need to stop hiding behind others.

Reading back I think this was interesting, this being the literal 2nd post of d2

Haze ramped up in activity the moment this was brought to attention by someone, actually think this is the first time someone threw out the "you're being utr" accusation towards Haze

Haze spoke the most in d2 and is almost top poster now, which isn't substantial but it's food for thought

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Reading back I think this was interesting, this being the literal 2nd post of d2

Haze ramped up in activity the moment this was brought to attention by someone, actually think this is the first time someone threw out the "you're being utr" accusation towards Haze

Haze spoke the most in d2 and is almost top poster now, which isn't substantial but it's food for thought

They were slightly ahead of me in postcount at EoD1. I was critiquing the substance, not the activity

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Before I dissect Leetic's case against me I'll comment on these little posts



I wouldn't call what I presented a tunnel. I presented my case, logic, and stance against you. I never appealed to the masses about voting you except for explicitly in my case against you that I told people that I think you flew very UTR to the point nobody ever gave you a red lean because you weren't even on the radar before I said something, and then you got into your back and forth with Leetic. Raeko was the only one who commented on what I had to say about it, and she was openly willing to look into you more.

Frankly, I wanted to still vote you instead of either wagon and I chose Raeko. MML/Leetic/Myself was the wagon on her, Haze/Raeko were the votes against Leetic, and I blindly chose to follow MMLs vote (being vocal about intention to lynch me the entire phase to CFD on Raeko right at the end was a catch in my eye).

MML's vote was a sheep of mine, so you basically did a sheep of a sheep. Plus, that defense doesn't make you look towny, you voted Raeko because one of Raeko's voters didn't vote you? At best, it can be read as a hammer to prevent the momentum from turning against you once more.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Impatience is a wolf tell in f3, just sayin'

Town knows they benefit from using all the time, especially in final.

And dipping for half the phase is totally towny and wisely using all the time

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I also townread Haze, and said Zenith and Xel have been wolfy. I said leetic sounded "edgy" and still don't know quite what to think of them

I think I would be most OK with a Zenith vote here

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I had a feeling about Zenith, and Roundbox attempted to yolo onto Zenith at the end there. Think I would like to focus on Zenith at least for the first part of the phase

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

Haze seems towny still to me

I didn't really get what what they meant about the CC stuff at first but after re-reading I think I kinda get it

I feel like the best play here is to look at roundbox's top pick which is Zenith. Or clearing Xel's wagon (FMPOV) which would be leetic

After ISOing Zenith I don't see much that stands out from yesterday


The main thing would be this post which a few people have already pointed out. I don't really get the logic personally. He did not offer a whole lot in terms of investigation or anything like that either and was mostly posting about being lost or unsure of things

As for today, Zenith seems quite defensive and seems like he is more interested in saving his own appearances than on finding out who the wolf is. I get that forcing a seer claim and then mislynching and losing the seer is bad. Definitely not good. But the way he is reacting seems a bit over the top, in a way that doesn't seek any revenge for what happened.... I don't know how to explain it very well. He seems mad but unwilling to take action about this anger, if that makes sense

Yeah, I don't know where I got the idea that Raeko was suspecting Zenith

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

1) I've seen your name thrown around with the word "inconsistency" and I'll start by pointing out this one: Raeko never once said I was a red lean or thought I was wolfing. Raeko's vote towards me at EoD is, and I quote here,



Her stance on me has always been a consensus-appealed vote and not one of her own thoughts.

2) This is the only thing I think that I would struggle and argue against, but I can say a few things. Roundbox being locked on sights towards me lost its weight the longer we went. I think d2 interactions yields far more actual information that is tangible and usable than d1 interactions do mainly because d1 wasn't predominantly game solving, it was interactions and stirring the pot. Give us more reasoning behind why you're giving him so much credit, cause his reason behind voting me to begin with was always "people are talking more than Zenith, so I'm okay hitting this slot right now".



















3) Performative behavior is a thing that only you have made a focus in this game and frankly I haven't seen many people use it as any basis behind their deduction so seeing it is kind of new to me, however I think it's by far the weakest reason you can use here because anyone can invoke or simulate emotion, even display it the same way I did about the way d1 EoD went and it will always be NAI.

Regarding NKA, I came out swinging by saying it was not something we should have spent our time even discussing, and frankly it was something you were doing to waste towns time cause every time it was brought up by you it would take someone away from actual game solving. Getting into an argument about if I even said SK or not, or wrongfully used the term was important to the game, or solving it?

Let me explain performativity to you. Wolves have to pretend to care about a situation that is poor for town, and thus they will often overdo it. Further, when I actually pressed you it became clear your thoughts on the situation were shallow, which showed that you were flinging shit rather than legitimately venting. Also, this is a common strategy for wolves to distract and deflect, and you putting the focus on the D1 lynch while deflecting from roundbox's reads did just that.

And as for your seconf argument, it's not just roundbox lol it's every dead townie.

[leetic]

And do tell Zenith, what "actual game solving" have you done? Voting your "townread"?

[leetic]

Aaand Zenith dipped again. They were viewing the thread a few moments ago!

[leetic]

Although Haze too should really be here right now

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

It’s prob good I didn’t do it then.

Yes I still feel it is leetic but also I did kinda think that you were tunneling me and that if you weren’t the wolf we just lose here regardless so I had to hope you were wolf tbh.

If you want to actually build a case on Haze, you could start with this post. It's definitely odd for them to drop a tunnel that took up like 70 posts of their ISO, but that happens. But now it seems they're still in the tunnel yet not confronting me over it? It does seem that they're a little comfortable with my attention mostly directed towards Zenith

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

All I got to was where roundbox voted me I’m still trying to catch up to where I was last ;-;

You were there for EoD1, so a bit odd that you didn't vote here

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

It is fucked up

Like what were you trying to accomplish with this post?