TWG XXIV: Calvin and Hobbes (Day 4!)

[talisman]

If a wolf was seered last night I'd be letting you guys know about it.

But in the hypothetical, yes.

[Afrobean]

Well, of course at this point, Talisman can tell us, but there was no saying that a sure human would be out in the open like this, especially pregame when all this stuff went down.

[Tasselfoot]

You're flat wrong Afro... seering a wolf night 1 MIGHT not get them lynched day 1, but it would get them by day 2 at worst... and an alliance would still get formed afterwards through other means, and the wolves would be down to 2.

The negatives far outweigh the positives. Perhaps that is why everyone else who has commented on the subject agrees that you're wrong.

PS - Talisman... still not home, but I do still have stuff I'd like to show you.

[talisman]

I await it...

ps more people need to check in. I feel like only a few voices are making all the posts right now.

[Afrobean]

Yea, it's me and a few people telling me I'm wrong.

Come on guys. I need more people to shoot me down before I'll even think of admitting defeat.

[FishFishRevolution]

If it's any consolidation Afro, I thought the idea was good, but it seemed more like something Tps would pull when there were 4 wolves, not 3. Maybe Tass would try it, but I doubt he would this game; there's too much to lose.

I'm going to sit down and think strategy/analysis possibilities tomorrow, I've been sort of busy and scatterbrained all day today.

[Afrobean]

Ok, well think of things this way:

He had to ask to be seer'd. There's no doubt there.

Now think of ways he could have done it. He could have proclaimed it heavily, as he did. He could have done it lightly once the thread actually opened. Now just imagine if Tass hadn't done what he did pregame. Regardless of his role he'd probably have been lynched shortly thereafter for being out of character.

When you realize this, you see that his asking to be seer'd has absolutely no indication of his role. He had to do it, no matter what.

Now, when you realize this, you can also see that it's not even a bad move for the wolves. They want to stop an alliance and if they can get the blues to waste a seering on a wolf when it would be better used on a human, that's exactly what they do. And also when you come to the idea that Tass wanted both blues to use a seering on him, you see that he's using two seerings on just himself. Wouldn't it make more sense for the two seers to seer different people and eventually meat up in the middle? I think so, especially because then there is no open central leader to the alliance which can be attacked much like I feel Talisman will be soon.

[talisman]

hey uh let's put the brakes on the talisman getting attacked train... I mean it's a definite possibility, but wolves, please don't. Or do, and risk the 2/3 chances of not killing someone two days in a row.

[Afrobean]

I really don't like how innactive this is guys. We had the Garbagebin thread up to like 6 pages before day even started. Why such little discussion all of a sudden?

PS @ Talisman: like I said before, the wolves are looking for something drastic to do and attacking you again is definitely it.

[evilbutterfly]

A lot of you seem to be forgetting that there is a large chance the the blues won't get a chance to seer anybody at all. There's also a pretty good chance that C or H could die from the roaming person. If that happened, that would again drastically reduce the chances of anybody getting seered. These things make coming out as a wolf saying "seer me!" not a bad idea. In no circumstance should you trust Afro or Tass to be human for saying these things. Afro isn't completely wrong, it's not the worst idea ever. It's not too safe, and it is a big risk, but hey, what fun is a game when you don't take any risks?

In other news: activity tsk tsk. Maybe everybody is active on AIM discussing stuff with talisman, but it'd be nice if the forum activity could pick up for those of us not involved in active AIM discussions (in case you don't know, I don't really talk TWG on AIM too much, I keep it mainly to the forums). kthx

[talisman]

So, in the event that I die, I have created a backup system so that if the alliance ever needs another public figurehead (for example if a wolf gets seered) that that person can come out without fear of suspicion.

Basically, I am going to give the pw to my jipkin account to C+H and then they can give it to someone they seer as human. This person then, if a wolf is later seered can come out and post about it, and then use jipkin's account to send you all a pm confirming that he/she is indeed in the alliance.

[talisman]

Actually strike that, there's no need to come out if they'll have jipkin. Basically, if jipkin tells you to do something (via pm) and I'm dead, trust it.

[nforcer06164]

Hmm... so, basically, all us greens are thrown out of the loop again because we've got an early alliance. Fun stuff. I was hoping to be in a better position this game, but that didn't happen. I'm not happy about being next-to-nothing again, but I'll try to be helpful when I can.

[nforcer06164]

Wow, twelve hours of nothing. Let's see, who are we missing so far?

nickadeemus
mattc16
Kilgamayan
HansSky
Tps222
lightdarkness

I randomly chose Hans out of that list, just so you know. What's with the silent treatment, guys?

[FishFishRevolution]

I was pretty surprised that tps hadn't posted yet. He's usually incriminating himself by page two, first real day. I have a few suspicions at this point, but nothing all together too strong. I think I'll have a few more AIM chats before voicing the suspicions/evidence.

PS Not saying Tps is suspicious because he hasn't incriminated himself, saying the fact that he hasn't posted yet is out of character.

[mattc16]

I'm about, i'm a bit like you nforcer, feeling a bit left out of the loop. I'll post more if something comes up.

[talisman]

Potential conversation topics:

-why the wolves picked me
-tass/afro and that whole situation
-early suspicions
-potential blue strategies
-ways to counteract potential red strategies

I know I'm the alliance leader, but don't make me do all the work =/ Also, don't be afraid to be active on aim. I'll be away til this evening (work, dinner) but I'll be free after that and all tomorrow, so don't hesitate to talk to me if something is on your mind.

[evilbutterfly]

My views on Talisman's conversation topics:

-With the low chance of guarding, I'd say talisman was an obvious target. That explains why he got both wolfed and guarded.

-Tass just wants in the alliance. Afro just wants to kill Tass.

-Not me, not talisman, not not Tass, not not Afro, if that makes any sense. Basically: *shrug*

-Spread out to keep double kills from happening, seer some people, guard talisman, rule out who the wolves can't be and tell talisman to tell us who to lynch. Easy as pie.

-One thing I'm unclear on, but how does the roaming lady work? Do the wolves pick that or a wolfing target, or do they get both? I'd prefer if flypie clarifies that, but if you all know the answer, go ahead and say it. If they choose one or the other, I'd expect them to roam around go for the blues early on, which may mean the blues should guard each other rather than talisman. Then again, if the wolves expect that they may go for talisman. That shouldn't matter by the end of today, though. I personally feel that C&H are way more important to us than a public figure like talisman. We can always get more of those, but there are only 2 blues that we can't lose.

Other than all that, I got nothing. I think everybody should at least respond to those things as much as possible. Don't post and say you have nothing to say, at least respond to all of those things. Do it. NOW!

[Tasselfoot]

-Tass just wants in the alliance. Afro just wants to kill Tass.

Hehe... I was thinking the same thing.


As for blue strat - my suggestion would be to have them go to 2 different rooms. Guarentted different powers, and 2/3 to get seer and 2/3 to get guardian... best we can hope for. Besides, having the 2 go to the same room is only beneficial if you get double seer power, 1/3. Not worth it, considering the 2/9 shot of them both dying when Susie roams. And for seering strat, use what we discussed last night.

eb... about the roaming... when I discussed it with Flypie pregame, my understanding was this: Susie gets to roam... if she gets C or H and there is no SS, she can kill them and it'll show up looking like the normal nightly kill. If she does not get them, the wolves get their normal kill that night, and can't roam again. Either way, roaming is a one time occurance. And we non-wolves have no idea as to when it happens or when it did happen.

PS - Good note... we know that 1/2 blues had guardian... perhaps the other had seer and the alliance is now 4 instead of 3. Wishful thinking, but possible.

[Kilgamayan]

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

What's with the silent treatment, guys?

Sunday is football day. I never do anything significant on the internet at all on Sunday.

Today I've had 5 classes, been sick (3 classes in reality since I was sick for the other two), and am currently working on a presentation for my JCulture class that's due on Wednesday but I basically have to have done by 10 tonight (read: less than 4 hours) because my group leader needs it.

Plus Monday Night RAW and Football start at 9 so I won't be paying attention to the internet then either.

Once all that is over and done with I'll gladly pay attention to this, but not before.