TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[123kappa3]

idk who I want to vote, I am kind of 2nd guessing myself a little bit.

Cellirra and xiz are my choices atm based on how I understand the game right now.

I thought celirras logs that they posted with storn looked genuine. Bug said that didnt matter but, to me it did. A part from that I dont like how they have voted at all, and dont think it is very helpful to town how they voted. They have also had some wierd takes on storn, maybe it was a blind spot or maybe they didnt care storn was not being very helpful.

xiz, has been busy i guess. so taking that into consideration, they have defiently talked and tried to play the game. xiz interaction with people this phase has been up and down.

On one hand, they seem to feel defeated but, on the other hand they are still fighting for a t force lynch.

what I really dont like is this wagonomics taken center stage with T force getting a pass. I understand the logic, but at this moment I think t force should be talked about. one ben was gone, I wanted to start looking at t force and haku. :/

It feels like the way I am playing the game isnt smart or maybe I am missing something.

anyway, I am leaning more towards celirra at this point, but ill vote later

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by 123kappa3

t force voting me, is kind of wierd if they are wolve. I know im reading into this hard. But If t force is a wolve they would know I am town, so when I flip in 2nd game they will get 100% voted, If t force is a wolve, they have to be banking that I am not going to get voted off.

You are putting 200% more thought into his vote then he is, trust me. Regardless of his alignment I promise he just saw that one of his scumreads was on the table, voted, and is nacl to TWEWY

It's frustrating, but anyone surfing through this phase will have their time in the hotseat eventually, and his lack of work will be used against him.

Originally Posted by 123kappa3

i
what I really dont like is this wagonomics taken center stage with T force getting a pass. I understand the logic, but at this moment I think t force should be talked about. one ben was gone, I wanted to start looking at t force and haku. :/

It feels like the way I am playing the game isnt smart or maybe I am missing something.

You can still talk and look into Force and Haku, just with the understanding that the mechanical correct play is to not vote them this phase. I've said several times I'd love for the whole game to talk about the whole game, but I don't want to risk a scenerio where most of town agrees that voting Storn's counterwagon is smart, but then it derails to another player.

It's happened before, and I don't think it's every derailed into a wolf ever IIRC.

The fact we couldn't get 4 pages without major pushback on me insisting there be no exceptions kind of shows me I'm making the right play.


...


This takes times but maybe between games, go track down an older game. Ask Charu or Sunfan for recommended classics---just something you haven't ever read.

Memorize who the wolves are firsr, then read through the game with that knowledge. You'll see some patterns on how wolves act emerge if you read enough games.

You'll notice that a common pattern is to sus a partner for most of the phase (who they'll vote for, but never will have that vote there at EoD because there's better options and we need infolynches man c'mon he can wait and they pick a town to just HARD DEFEND. Normally a town that will likely be lynched so when it flips they rake in a shit ton of cred.

But the pattern that we can feasibly use against wagons in real time is how they vote when a partner is on the line

They'll wait until EoD to really push a counterwagon and no matter what posturing they do, they'll vote in a manner that saves their partner. Exceptions happen of said partner has just basically outted themselves or you're reading a CharuWolf game, bit 9 out of 10 times it's a very easy thing to spot when you know who the wolves are----you can see as you read along when they all start to move towards that goal.

What we do when we talk about wagonomics, is reverse-engineer that play and figure out who did what to try and save the confirmed wolf

It's really that simple.

[123kappa3]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

You are putting 200% more thought into his vote then he is, trust me. Regardless of his alignment I promise he just saw that one of his scumreads was on the table, voted, and is nacl to TWEWY

It's frustrating, but anyone surfing through this phase will have their time in the hotseat eventually, and his lack of work will be used against him.



You can still talk and look into Force and Haku, just with the understanding that the mechanical correct play is to not vote them this phase. I've said several times I'd love for the whole game to talk about the whole game, but I don't want to risk a scenerio where most of town agrees that voting Storn's counterwagon is smart, but then it derails to another player.

It's happened before, and I don't think it's every derailed into a wolf ever IIRC.

The fact we couldn't get 4 pages without major pushback on me insisting there be no exceptions kind of shows me I'm making the right play.


...


This takes times but maybe between games, go track down an older game. Ask Charu or Sunfan for recommended classics---just something you haven't ever read.

Memorize who the wolves are firsr, then read through the game with that knowledge. You'll see some patterns on how wolves act emerge if you read enough games.

You'll notice that a common pattern is to sus a partner for most of the phase (who they'll vote for, but never will have that vote there at EoD because there's better options and we need infolynches man c'mon he can wait and they pick a town to just HARD DEFEND. Normally a town that will likely be lynched so when it flips they rake in a shit ton of cred.

But the pattern that we can feasibly use against wagons in real time is how they vote when a partner is on the line

They'll wait until EoD to really push a counterwagon and no matter what posturing they do, they'll vote in a manner that saves their partner. Exceptions happen of said partner has just basically outted themselves or you're reading a CharuWolf game, bit 9 out of 10 times it's a very easy thing to spot when you know who the wolves are----you can see as you read along when they all start to move towards that goal.

What we do when we talk about wagonomics, is reverse-engineer that play and figure out who did what to try and save the confirmed wolf

It's really that simple.

Thanks for explaining this to me, I do want to get better at the game. I will read some other games

[Celirra]

Y'all I legit already posted my storn logs in the chat last night phase

Tf y'all being forgetful about that for

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Y'all I legit already posted my storn logs in the chat last night phase

Tf y'all being forgetful about that for

Wait

That was ALL of your logs?

Please confirm

[MixMasterLar]

Plop I sww your reads and I think I disagree with alot of that but appriciate the post all the same. Will likely revisit this post next phase

[the sun fan]

Votecount:
xiz (3)- bugkid, haku, freezin
kappa (3)- shadow_god, xiz, force
celery (1)- lar
unvote- kappa

[fatfuck42]

~~MIRROR THREAD~~

TOWN:
subaru - Subaru's come across as very genuine both in terms of tone and intention. I also really liked how he responded to being pressured and having a wagon start to form on him back in d0. Like when he went toe to toe with cel, there was a bit of OMGUS there, sure, but it felt more like he really wanted to get to the bottom of where cel was coming from because subaru himself couldn't understand it. It's like if subaru was a wolf and cel pointed out legitimately wolfy things, subaru would be more like, "Well, no, you're wrong, I didn't do that for this reason." Here it was more like genuine confusion, like, "I'm town, so how in the h-e-double-hockey-sticks did you reach that conclusion??"

ben/bolthy - After everything we've been through, it's really hard to imagine storn/ben being w/w. There's also the self-voting and the acceptance that his death was going to be a necessity. I think wolf ben would've fought back much harder. Bolthy (hi bolthy!) I'm more null on since there hasn't been much going on with him yet, but my read on ben is strong enough that bolthy would have to do something really, really wacky to get me to scumread him.

backpack - Dap's been putting in the work to solve this game, alignments and mechanics alike, and I've mindmelded with plenty of what he's brought up. I believe his claim too for reasons I've talked about already (if he lied then I think he would've gone about it in a different, safer way). Whether you think he's town or 3p, his two shots were people he was scumreading (and, in the case of charu, someone who he thought would be difficult to get any momentum going against), so it sounds like he's at least playing town-aligned regardless.

fg - fg's like cel in that it feels like she's viewing this game totally differently than me (minus, of course, her tforce read). I know she's not the only person who thought storn was town, but she was very adament about it, and she's the only person I can think of who strongly believes xiz is town. I believe her too when she talks about being infuriated and feeling ignored. I don't think fg's the type of wolf to lie about that, nor do I think wolf fg would feel as strongly about it vs town fg. If she's a wolf then people ignoring her would actually be pretty benefitical! If she's feeling infuriated then that shows me she has skin in the game and is motivated to solve and work together with people to catch wolves.

TOWN LEAN:
blind - Weirdness about how his role works vs how dap's works (eg why didn't blind get a result?) aside, I'm pretty sure blind's telling the truth about being a PR. I noticed he was quieter than usual d0, and he didn't assume as much of a leadership role as he usually does, so it makes sense if he's a PR. He didn't want to be in the limelight and become a target. I think claiming like he did, so early on in a mystery game where so much is still unknown, would be a really dangerous move as a wolf, so I'm inclined to believe it. Also, dap said he didn't kill him, and if the third killing power is town-aligned then I struggle to see them shooting blind when he softed his role as hard as he did, so chances are high he was killed by wolves. There is, however, the issue that he was part of the haku rush, and also that he didn't want to flip logman/star d1. I'm kinda torn between putting him as a town lean vs null, but like, if I put him as null then that's as good as saying I don't believe his claim, and there's more points in its favor than there are against it.

roundbox - This is another case of, "I don't think they're a wolf, but they COULD be a wolf." He's trying to solve, and he's putting his best foot forward in trying to keep everyone from getting too tangled up in the unknowns of the setup, which is very townie. He also seemed...not quite disappointed, not quite frustrated, but maybe disheartened that people in the main thread weren't interacting with him and the rest of the mirror thread. He's also not doing his usual wall-of-quotes style of posting, which I believe almost always makes an appearance when he's scum.

NULL:
charu - Charu's been making me uneasy for no good reason. Maybe it's entirely an issue on my end, but my intuition/gut feeling is that something's up. But, again, if I try to iso him and pick apart his posts, there's not really anything I take issue with. Pushing back against the storn flip for mechanical reasons is the only thing that comes to mind, but even then I can understand his POV. I don't think there's any real hurry or even real need to figure out his slot at this point, so I'm fine with leaving him as a null read. (PS, sorry charu, I'm sure it's annoying to be read like this )

SCUM LEAN:
cedo - I won't fault cedo for his killer schedule, but as I said before, even when he was in the thread and active (eg d0 EOD), he seemed more focused on making sure we knew he was there and struggling to think about stuff than actually making moves or trying to ask questions to gain insight and help gain his footing. It felt like he was prioritizing impression management over scumhunting. Otherwise, though, he hasn't done anything overtly scummy that I can think of. POE just isn't in his favor.

xel - Xel doesn't seem too too interested in solving, nor has he gotten particularly fired up about anything. He had his back and forth with kappa, but that didn't feel like it was super game-related. Like, I feel when town xel sees something he doesn't like he says, for example, "You're a fucking idiot, don't do that," but wolf xel is more like, "You're a fucking idiot, but go ahead, it's your funeral." Him asking fg that super random question also didn't sit well with me since 1) he hasn't really asked random questions like that to anyone else, and 2) fg is his neighbor, so why ask something like that in-thread?

SCUM:
star - As great of a game as star is playing, I feel much stronger about ben/bolthy being town over her/logman, so with the haku rush in mind, it must've happened to protect her slot and not ben's. Her reticence to being flipped even though she was the d0 lynch and it would've given so much more info over anyone else's in the game at that point (blind, subaru, and GS) kinda seals the deal for me.

[Shadow_God_10]

Oh I nearly forgot about my vote on Kappa

unvote

[MixMasterLar]

Why unvote when you could move it?

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Why unvote when you could move it?

Not sure where to move it to just yet... I need a bit of time here

[mellon_collie]

celery

I didn't realize he had already posted the entirety of the logs, I thought it was just a snippet

[Xiz]

hi

[Xiz]

can we not kill cel please, i understand im the other wagon but im confident cel is a miss

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Xiz

can we not kill cel please, i understand im the other wagon but im confident cel is a miss

you've defended cel before, what makes you so confident about it?

[123kappa3]

Originally Posted by Xiz

can we not kill cel please, i understand im the other wagon but im confident cel is a miss

whats the diffrence between lynching you and cel tho?

[fatfuck42]

I prefer lynching xiz over cel, but I'd still prefer tforce over both (I know, I know...)

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

I prefer lynching xiz over cel, but I'd still prefer tforce over both (I know, I know...)

100% times a million. but I will say I'm fine with a xiz lynch. I want to... wait on cel I think. but based on how aggressively xiz is defending cel, if xiz flips red our next hit should absolutely be cel.

[fatfuck42]

tforce

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

you've defended cel before, what makes you so confident about it?

Originally Posted by 123kappa3

whats the diffrence between lynching you and cel tho?

I think wolf cel would be way more passive emotionally. I can't see a world he fakes this. Simple as that. And it's a very strong strong read for me. It has nothing really to do with his reads. Simply that.


If it must be between cel and I, at this point this pool of players will probably listen to cel more, so i rather it be me BUT WE ARE BOTH TOWN SO DONT LYNCH EITHER OF US