TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

you went down some weird rabbit hole of thought but i think if you step back and look at again you'll realize that really doesn't shake out logically

Lol you said this last game too and I was right about you then!
Idk man, I'm learning to trust these feelings of clarity when they come.

Where does it not make sense, logically?

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Lol you said this last game too and I was right about you then!
Idk man, I'm learning to trust these feelings of clarity when they come.

Where does it not make sense, logically?

you were right about me being a vanilla townie?

[Vendetta21]

because if i remember correctly you were questioning my townieness by making my play a lot more elaborate than i was, and uhh i was actually a vanilla townie exactly like i said you can go look at the game

[Vendetta21]

it's not that it doesn't make sense logically in the narrow window you've honed your focus, it's just that it starts not to make as much sense logically when you consider the greater context a little more

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

no don't re-read your own damn post that isn't re-looking at it, re-read the phase

This kinda made me chuckle.
I know it's hard to see AA as scum this game. It's hard for me too, but if there's one player I can tinfoil on to be a wolf, it's AA.
Idk, I'm waiting for his response anyways. It'll probably be the same as yours, I just can't help feeling I'm right about this.
I'll reconsider and reread, but know that this is what I think after rereading.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

because if i remember correctly you were questioning my townieness by making my play a lot more elaborate than i was, and uhh i was actually a vanilla townie exactly like i said you can go look at the game

Holy shit you're right, you weren't even a wolf!
I had to go back and triple check, but holy shit I forgot lurker was even in that game and was remembering you as Sabo Wolf this entire fucking time.
uhh okay my point about my tinfoil being right is clearly very much moot I guess

[ShadoWolfe]

Like, I've made at least one reference in this game about you wolfing it last game, why the fuck did no one correct me? You literally just took my moment of clarity and smashed it with a rock against a hard place and turned into a moment of confusion and incomprehension

[Vendetta21]

wolves often do simple things and rarely do complicated ones. they usually don't even need to try complicated things since the town will do enough stupid stuff on their own for them to keep it simple

[Vendetta21]

yeah boys and girls lets get those votes rolling on mr. xiz

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Meno solve plz

Sarcasm or not, let's run some probable outcomes here. Nothing is guaranteed, but I'll try and theorycraft a solution that fits current data.

Quick role elimination: vigi
I'm going to go ahead and assume competent enough play that the wolves sent in a kill PM both nights. 0 deaths and 1 death during the night really don't point to a vigi being in the game, but it does point to some form of guardian.

Quick role elimination: seer
I'm going to wager that we don't have a seer, since we have a greenmaster and having both would both be awkward, and give the humans a huge advantage (dependent on rng).

Based on last game's roll, we'll have equal Human PRs as wolf PRs. Last game had an interesting turnout where colour PRs were basically mirrored between teams. I don't think that's a pattern to look for so much as a basis for balancing teams.

seer/freeze - grey
vigi/sabo - red
guard/mw - green
Pink ranger/chaos - pink/(choose)

I'll take a moment here to say that, if you're a human PR and you claimed VT, fix that shit right now. We can theorycraft the hell out of this game and every piece of meaningful data closes more holes.

What bothers me a lot right now is that greenmaster, pink ranger, adept guardian is a valid human PR team, and that it fits our current situation. However, including the pink ranger and greenmaster on the same team is a bit of a dick move as it fucks the greenmaster. Why? The greenmaster has two abilities:
-set up a green alliance by proxy where any green indirectly targeted is made aware of a confirmed human
-is notified if said green is no longer green.

Now let's quickly check the pink ranger's abilities:
-paints someone's adversary pink each night (3-shot)
-is informed if they stop flipping pink
-finds out how many wolves flip pink once they've three-shot

Pink ranger + greenmaster is literally a giant clusterfuck for the humans to try and decipher if they were ever put on a team together. Each role is somewhat designed to weed out whether a chaos wolf exists, although moreso with the greenmaster. I'll just hope that tokzic isn't that cruel.

It does seem like roles have been swapped around a bit, though.

So, what are our probable wolves? Doublecross(Xel), chaos, janitor(Xiz).
What are our probably PR humans? greenmaster, adept guardian(inD)

Why? Because I'm pretty sure Tokzic did some basic checks to make sure that there weren't any clearly broken strats, and this is a fairly balanced PR split. In addition, this setup allows for a lot of colour shenanigans that the wolves can use to help them without breaking anything. This setup doesn't have MW in it, but MW would be a dick move for humans in this setup in lieu of chaos.

The one other setup I'd consider right now would be doublecross, chaos, mw, greenmaster, ag, pink ranger. That would be colour hell, though. If that were so, I'd rather take a feel good shot in the dark every day than actually try analyzing colour for any value.

So it's almost 4am, and I think what I've said makes sense. Maybe it doesn't, but I have job fair round 2 at 10am tomorrow, so I'll deal with any fallout tomorrow when I get home. I will be present for EoD.

[meno_rocks123]

And I get ninja'd by a page of posts. Every time.

An interesting note is that both me and V were probably typing in our votes for xiz at the same time.

[AragakiAyase]

I never saw xiz make that post about me being his ally, I wasn't at the comp, came back and realized important posts had been made, made that post, refreshed, and then realized v was green master

[AragakiAyase]

I mean if you think that I waited for xiz to claim his ally then ok but lol

[AragakiAyase]

wait no I misunderstood, you think I claimed preemptively because I thought xiz would choose me as his ally? lol you hf with your tinfoil

the only reasonable way this assumption works is if you think the wolfteam is exactly me/xiz/xel, and then you should factor in that I've pushed xel hard and xiz extremely hard this game and that I don't like bussing if I can help it

[AragakiAyase]

glad V wants to lynch xiz, because I want to lynch xiz too because he's still really wolfy

[AragakiAyase]

I'll vote xiz later, that'll put him at L-2 or something? idk no votecounts makes game hard

[AragakiAyase]

xiz's thought processes are pretty level 1 here, and I know he's not a level 1 player

he still never gave an example of me doing any of the things he called me out as a wolf for (hint because there aren't any)
he assumes I'm probably not a wolf just because I show some WIM and do some work when I'm almost sure he knows that's NAI, especially since I pocketed him my 2nd wolf game and WIMd really hard
it feels like he's mostly slotting raeko into the scum slot because he's not able to push well on anyone else, his reasoning for her doesn't really make any sense

[Vendetta21]

he never really explained how he mindmelded with me on sunfan when what i had to say about sunfan was wrong, he changed the goalposts after i asked for clarification by saying sunfan was behaving like he was preparing, and then was unable to clarify that

[Vendetta21]

he's very busy so he brushes off inquisition towards him and then briefly changes the subject

[Vendetta21]

then he leaves