TWG 203 Werewolves in Avalon GAME THREAD

[roundbox]

holiday's over, twg time

[Wayward Vagabond]

Watching US vs England. Will come back in afterwards

MERICA

[roundbox]

MML, I'm sorry to tell you that I am town and all of the reads you have made were stained with the presupposition of wolviness

I completely refute all of your reads that hinge off of "nobody was even talking about it" because that hinges on the logic that someone needs to be talking about something for it to have argumentative merit
this is plainly wrong, and I hope everyone else can see that.

also, call this a crazy thought, but is it weird for me to not want to read too much into manti's reads? think about the emphasis I place on reading the reads of dead towns. dead towns have no incentive to lie, so their reads can be read with the assumption of relative truth (towns are looking for wolves, so their reads are true relative to their alignment).
on the other hand, wolves are playing the game with the objective of sowing disinformation and confusion. there's no formula to how many wolf partners you're supposed to townread, scumread, whatever. the one thing wolves can't lie about is their vote. whoever their vote is on (yes, the [twgv] tags) is objectively known to the thread how they get to their vote and what they do with their vote is worth analyzing intently. it's how MML developed his case on manti: manti dropped a vote on MML, and it blasted forth from there when manti tried to justify his vote. I was a big dumb doodoo head who didn't

MML, your point on freezin swapping to jub3r7 prompting manti to swap votes I think only incriminates jub3r7 a bit more from my perspective. I think your case on me is understandable and doesn't feel forced, so I'm townreading you completely.
WV is probably second for me in townreads. you are much more active than you have been in the past, which is cool, so I hope you're not pulling a deep wolf on us. of all the players to be a deep wolf, I think it'd be you, but I don't really feel it. I felt like your EOD was quippy and responsive, and one of the things that I really struggle with as a wolf is remembering where I left my reads, and I feel like these following posts of yours were made from the hip instead of a wolfy aim:

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Regardless of your tunneling I think you're a lost town now

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I'm joking but I did want to see your response

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I don't see a post from you answering my question regarding your views on charu. Did they change after your reread of raeko or was it just your view of raeko that changed

I need to do a deeper read into pretty much everyone else, honestly. I'm going to start with the manti wagon and follow each player's vote to see how they got on him. if there's a wolf on that wagon, I think this is the way to find one (or both, but as I mentioned earlier, this feels unlikely)

[mellon_collie]

I am also back from Thanksgiving hello

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Watching US vs England. Will come back in afterwards

MERICA

Boycott the world cup fuck Qatar

[roundbox]

how did bug get to voting manti:

bug is the second person to vote manti, so let's see how they made it there:

Originally Posted by bugkid666

two people weren't even present for EOD and while it's unlikely they were both wolves, expecting people to respond to that in the final minute is absolutely bonkers to me

Originally Posted by bugkid666

@Manti why are you so afraid of kitb

bug begins with immediately calling out manti for two things: their EOD behavior with expecting responses and their vote movement (probably him pointing out jub/FFA were 4/4). it's the start of bug's case on manti, as a later post I quote here has them mentioning they weren't particularly wolfreading manti until D2.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i wasn't convinced manti was scum yesterday at all, but his posts today are weird. i had also entirely missed that he voted jub and then switched to ffa (i originally thought he went straight from mml to ffa) so that is extremely wee woo wee woo sus to me

this part of a post from bug shows how they didn't realize the vote swapping was between specifically the two wagons, not just from MML. now, the wolfread increases. this doesn't feel forced and I get the logic.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i was about to call out manti for contradicting himself but mml did it for me lol

work smarter not harder

bugkid says that MML made the point before them, so this could be a mindmeld moment or just a supposed mindmeld moment (bugkid could technically lie here by claiming they were about to do it themselves)

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i can't tell if i just heavily disagree with manti/don't understand his strategy or if he's just a scatterbrained, vocal wolf.

another quip from a post with reads on other players. it doesn't really feel built on the same logic they were using before (the wee woo lights they mentioned, the contradiction), but I might just be nitpicking since it's a vague read.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

manti is tunneling more than anyone else right now. i like freezin's posts a lot. i like raeko's reentry but not sold on her yet. i would like wv to speak on anything that's happened more recently. maybe even a reads list?

for now, i think it is worth solving manti today

this is the important post where bug makes their vote. they commit to voting manti in the face of potential raeko suspicion and curiosity about WV. this post was also made almost 12 hours away from EOD, so only MML had been on the wagon at that point. I give bug some town credit for this early vote + their reasoning so far

Originally Posted by bugkid666

my vote wouldn't be on manti if i felt strong enough about raeko

bug defends their vote on manti much later on during EOD, solidifying their confidence. freezin and charu had both voted for manti at this point, so they didn't really have much of a reason to move off unless something about raeko truly compelled them to action

Originally Posted by bugkid666

jury is still out on raeko, but i'd like to revisit her more tomorrow. i'd rather solve manti today

if mml is wolf i'll eat my shoe

reaffirming their vote yet again

overall, I think bug's progression to manti seems relatively clean. yeah, they could have borrowed a catch from MML at one point by lying, but aside from that, everything else didn't really feel forced considering their vote timing.

I had originally planned this to be a longer post with more people in it, but I think I'm gonna take a break before I continue down the line of the remaining manti voters: charu, wv, and jub3r7 (yeah, even if it didn't count, I'm considering it!!)

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Never voting Bug this game, considered me pocketed

I'd like to know more about this.

Originally Posted by Charu

What I'm saying is Raeko probably is another good vote candidate based on that. Of course I wouldn't commit to it fully without at least coming up with something.

Based on what exactly? sorry I don't think I follow what you were trying to accomplish still.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

when i read that freezin was the one to get nightkilled, i audibly said “what the fuck” because i thought it would for sure be me or mml just for sheer post activity.

I believe WV already asked this but you might have missed it... why did you think the night kill would be between you and MML? MML makes sense but why did you think you might be a target?

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I need to stop because I'm just hard tunneling on you jub. Everything you say just sounds like it's coming from a wolf.

I keep thinking the same thing but also like it's TWTBAW? rofl

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by roundbox

how did bug get to voting manti:

bug is the second person to vote manti, so let's see how they made it there:




bug begins with immediately calling out manti for two things: their EOD behavior with expecting responses and their vote movement (probably him pointing out jub/FFA were 4/4). it's the start of bug's case on manti, as a later post I quote here has them mentioning they weren't particularly wolfreading manti until D2.



this part of a post from bug shows how they didn't realize the vote swapping was between specifically the two wagons, not just from MML. now, the wolfread increases. this doesn't feel forced and I get the logic.



bugkid says that MML made the point before them, so this could be a mindmeld moment or just a supposed mindmeld moment (bugkid could technically lie here by claiming they were about to do it themselves)



another quip from a post with reads on other players. it doesn't really feel built on the same logic they were using before (the wee woo lights they mentioned, the contradiction), but I might just be nitpicking since it's a vague read.



this is the important post where bug makes their vote. they commit to voting manti in the face of potential raeko suspicion and curiosity about WV. this post was also made almost 12 hours away from EOD, so only MML had been on the wagon at that point. I give bug some town credit for this early vote + their reasoning so far



bug defends their vote on manti much later on during EOD, solidifying their confidence. freezin and charu had both voted for manti at this point, so they didn't really have much of a reason to move off unless something about raeko truly compelled them to action



reaffirming their vote yet again

overall, I think bug's progression to manti seems relatively clean. yeah, they could have borrowed a catch from MML at one point by lying, but aside from that, everything else didn't really feel forced considering their vote timing.

I had originally planned this to be a longer post with more people in it, but I think I'm gonna take a break before I continue down the line of the remaining manti voters: charu, wv, and jub3r7 (yeah, even if it didn't count, I'm considering it!!)

This is... very detailed and specific

I can get it from a town point of view analyzing a wagon. But I could also see a wolf using this as a way to overly "analyze"

Gonna wait and see how your posts about the other voters seem

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I am also back from Thanksgiving hello


Boycott the world cup fuck Qatar

I'm not buying anything world cup related but still gotta cheer on my teams!!

[Wayward Vagabond]

Thanks for the discord tip I'm going to look into doing that. Hopefully I won't need nitro.


As for this:

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Isn't it too early in the game for this schtick of yours. This is a d2-3 thing usually

I explained it later on in a post that I'm too lazy to look for but it was something to the extent of "the joke was that I'm somehow an expert on lar meta even though I hardly ever played with him"

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I believe WV already asked this but you might have missed it... why did you think the night kill would be between you and MML? MML makes sense but why did you think you might be a target?

this is not something a town asks, especially considering i answered this question already.
wolves inquire more than they offer. this is exactly what raeko is doing today.

raeko i don't like this post at all at all at all

roundbox looks much better today imo

sorry mml i'm not reading posts that long. maybe later when i have the patience

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by roundbox

MML, I'm sorry to tell you that I am town and all of the reads you have made were stained with the presupposition of wolviness

I completely refute all of your reads that hinge off of "nobody was even talking about it" because that hinges on the logic that someone needs to be talking about something for it to have argumentative merit
this is plainly wrong, and I hope everyone else can see that.

also, call this a crazy thought, but is it weird for me to not want to read too much into manti's reads? think about the emphasis I place on reading the reads of dead towns. dead towns have no incentive to lie, so their reads can be read with the assumption of relative truth (towns are looking for wolves, so their reads are true relative to their alignment).
on the other hand, wolves are playing the game with the objective of sowing disinformation and confusion. there's no formula to how many wolf partners you're supposed to townread, scumread, whatever. the one thing wolves can't lie about is their vote. whoever their vote is on (yes, the [twgv] tags) is objectively known to the thread how they get to their vote and what they do with their vote is worth analyzing intently. it's how MML developed his case on manti: manti dropped a vote on MML, and it blasted forth from there when manti tried to justify his vote. I was a big dumb doodoo head who didn't

MML, your point on freezin swapping to jub3r7 prompting manti to swap votes I think only incriminates jub3r7 a bit more from my perspective. I think your case on me is understandable and doesn't feel forced, so I'm townreading you completely.
WV is probably second for me in townreads. you are much more active than you have been in the past, which is cool, so I hope you're not pulling a deep wolf on us. of all the players to be a deep wolf, I think it'd be you, but I don't really feel it. I felt like your EOD was quippy and responsive, and one of the things that I really struggle with as a wolf is remembering where I left my reads, and I feel like these following posts of yours were made from the hip instead of a wolfy aim:




I need to do a deeper read into pretty much everyone else, honestly. I'm going to start with the manti wagon and follow each player's vote to see how they got on him. if there's a wolf on that wagon, I think this is the way to find one (or both, but as I mentioned earlier, this feels unlikely)

I can see wolf rb making these long posts if the last wolf is exactly jub

[Wayward Vagabond]

Actually no that wouldn't make sense what am I talking about

[Wayward Vagabond]

Imo I'd rather resolve jub this phase than rb

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

this is not something a town asks, especially considering i answered this question already.
wolves inquire more than they offer. this is exactly what raeko is doing today.

raeko i don't like this post at all at all at all

roundbox looks much better today imo

sorry mml i'm not reading posts that long. maybe later when i have the patience

Spicy

[bugkid666]

i don't think raeko/rb can be w/w here

[Charu]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

This is... very detailed and specific

I can get it from a town point of view analyzing a wagon. But I could also see a wolf using this as a way to overly "analyze"

Gonna wait and see how your posts about the other voters seem

Why am I reading this as if you're now using MML's essays as a means to push?

[Charu]

Also, to answer your question.

It was to see immediate thread reactions.

[MixMasterLar]

My stomach is tore the fuck up

All I'll say right now is that @Roundbox that "things don't need to be a talking point to be argumentive" reads hallow because you wheren't making arguments.

And Raeko I literally have several posts that answer that question

......It's Round and Raeko isn't it? Would help Raeko's "Are we just taking Lar's word for the contradiction" defense on Day2 make more sense if she say Manti was in trouble and wanted to jump in. That post seriously didn't have a logic to it in any other context

[MixMasterLar]

Going back to bathroom

[MixMasterLar]

Also Bug actually go read my post