TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4

[flypie743]

I also vote for lightdarkness. He has not been the same at all. Also, I agree with alain's and blah's reasoning.

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by evilbutterfly

Back a few pages, at the end of Day 1: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...=asc&start=165

There, Kefit shows up and says something, Jurs points out he's been inactive, a couple people vote for him. A little further down, I make my big post defending alain and voting for Chardish. Then blah and afro both vote Chardish (we had been talking about it and felt it was a decent idea, so when I made my post it basically paved the way for their votes). nforcer comes in to vote for Kefit, giving some reasons but not really saying them at all. Kinda suspicious, but we let it slide. Tsuteto then basically bandwagons onto the Chardish vote. LD makes a vote for flypie because they haven't talked much, but probably moreso because he doesn't wanna kill Chardish and tps goes after flypie as well. Then, we come to an interesting spot. nforcer, who just changed his changed his vote (with little visible reason) only about 10 minutes before, changes again, only this time he votes for Chardish. Now why would he do that?

The main reason I voted for Chardish was because he didn't respond to me. Apparently quite a few people were suspicious of Chardish, and my vote along with blah and Afro's made it look like they could vote for him without feeling any reprucussions. Some (like Afrobean) are scared to vote for big players because they think everybody will claim them to be a wolf for doing so. The problem is, Chardish hasn't been very active. Last game he hosted and it didn't get updated very often, because he was always away it seemed. This game (as I was told later by people who tried to contact him) he was away for extended periods of time, so he probably just didn't read close enough to see my post. You see, Chardish was not a wolf. I didn't really have much info against him, but everybody started voting for him and he died and it's my fault. Psycic tells me he was human, so I screwed up. However, maybe this sad event will help us pin a wolf. To help make it easier to see, I'll make a quick little timeline:

At the top of that page I linked to, right before my post, the votes stood like this:

Alain: Kefit, LD, Whorli,Tsuteto, nforcer, Kilga, and Chardish (7)
Chardish: Alain (1)

At 7-1, Alain was pretty much screwed. As we go down the page, this changes rather quickly.

Tsuteto changes to Jurs: 6-1
I vote Chardish: 6-2
Blah votes Chardish: 6-3
Afro votes Chardish: 6-4
nforcer switches to Kefit: 5-4
Tsuteto switches to Chardish: 5-5
LD switches to flypie: 4-5 <---Chardish takes the lead
nforcer switches to Chardish: 4-6 <---seals the deal
Jurs switches to alain: 5-6 <---could have saved Chardish if not for nforcer

Now we see a few things there. Wolves would know that Chardish was a human, and would want to dispose of him. However, a smart wolf would not vote directly for him, because that would be suspicious. Instead, they may divert the vote to another place, letting the one they want to die take the lead. For that reason, I'm also keeping my eye on LD, but nforcer can take the heat for now.

See, this is what I like for the humans. Great logic. But it's still flawed a bit, because you don't know everything behind it. Let me explain myself.

My original post for Kefit was at 8:31 PM (keep in mind that all these times will be in Central). During this time, I was thinking over it. Look at LDs post on page 19, the first post on the page. I was talking to blah too. During this time, my suspicions of alain were dropping. He was convincing me that Chardish was a wolf. At that time, I was deciding that alain was best saved. When I rechecked the thread, Tsuteto had changed his vote to Chardish. Great. A tie. I decided, hey, I don't want Alain to die on a 50-50 split. So I decided to break the tie. Just look at my post. My change to Chardish was supposed to go in BEFORE LD posted. I edited my post two minutes later (look at the time CAREFULLY... I didn't alter it) to inform you of the voting status, because I hadn't seen your post. LD's had been a mere two minutes earlier. At the time I posted, it was 5-4. After my vote change, it was 6-4. The reason I did it, as you can see in the same post, was that I didn't want to see alain go, much like many others. That's about it.

I don't believe that Chardish had to be human. Right now, you have no idea whether the "psychic" was real, or was a wolf. If the psychic, and I still have a fear it was roopert... is dead, any wolf could come out and say they know, without any conflict from another player. It doesn't really matter what a wolf would say... as long as you trust him, it can distort your views, as well as the view of others, and screw up the human strategy altogether.

One of my suspicions lies on Tsuteto. His vote is backed by little to no logic. He basically said, "This is my vote." M-A-C is acting the same way... but with absolutely NO LOGIC at all.

Originally Posted by M-A-C

I vote alainbryden

After the ending chaos of Day 1, it would've been smart for wolves to space their votes to avoid suspicion of bandwagoning. But the absence of logic, along with Tsuteto's holed logic, makes them look linked. I highly suspect that they are both wolves. But for now, I'm voting Tsuteto. His post being the initial one on this duo makes me think he's the ringleader of the operation.

[lightdarkness]

Wow, I had no idea so many people thought I was an Agent.

As for flypie, i'm sorry i've been neglecting you on AIM, but I have SAT's in 2 weeks, Exams in 2 weeks 2 days, and I was catching up on season 3 of 24.

I've talked to you quite a bit this game, but last game we were certain each other were human. We haven't had that total assumption yet, and I can talk now (Even though i'm trying to watch 24).

Don't vote for me based on the fact I haven't been as talkative on aim, base it on real acusations if you are gonna vote for me.

I'm free to chat.

[evilbutterfly]

It would be great if the host (or anyone) counted up the votes and posted where everybody stands .

[Tps222]

To summarize what i see in my point of view:

>LD is defending himself a whole lot since the beginning of the game.
>Alain is being extremely active and is posting the first thing to come to his mind, he says that this is his way of not getting wolfed, people find this extremely suspicious.
>Tsutteto and M-A-C are bandwagoning with the majority of people without decent evidence, but they are new.
>Whorli, Kilga, Kefit, and Charidish are extremely quiet. Many people are looking at this as suspcious.
>EB was guarded on night 2, and i'm almost 100 percent sure he's human.

Right now my top suspects are Tsutteto, M-A-C, LD and Kilga.

[M-A-C]

Originally Posted by Tps222

>EB was guarded on night 2, and i'm almost 100 percent sure he's human.

What are you talking about. If he gets guarded he IS human.

[lightdarkness]

2 and a half things wrong with TPS's post, don't know if it's stupidity or stratigy, most likely the first.

Chardish is dead.
EB IS 100% human

And I only started defending myself when people started throwing acusations my way.

[evilbutterfly]

It's been established in past games that no wolf would possibly be stupid enough to attack themselves thinking that the guardian would guard them. If it happened it would be like, insta-win for the wolves, but nobody would dare do it. I especially would not risk dying just for that.

And I'd still like to see a vote chart. Where's alain when you need him!?

[flypie743]

Flaipai's Super Awesome Colored Voting Guide:


As you can see it is colored for easier reading. The people who are colored and bolded have the most votes. The blank spaces are for the people who have yet to vote. Oh, and Chardish is red because he is dead (lolo rhyme).

EDIT: My guide>Squeek's guide

EDIT v2: My apologies to evilbutterfly for capitalizing his name in my guide. It looked neater with everything capitalized.

[Squeek]

1 hour to go.

Squeek's Totally Not-Stolen Friendy Guide to Bandwagon Voting™

Alainbryden (5) - Kilgamayan, M-A-C, Tsuteto, LD, Jursey.
Lightdarkness (3) - Blahblah, Lupin, Flypie.
Tsuteto (3) - Afrobean, Nforcer, Tps222.
Whorlichan (1) - Alainbryden.
Afrobean (1) - JurseyRider.
Blah (1) - Whorlichan.

Cypher (1) - Phantom.

NOT VOTED (2) - Cypher, Kefit.

Reminding you all again, there is now less than an hour remaining.

~Squeek

[evilbutterfly]

Well, my post before basically said "nforcer or LD may be wolves." Since my vote for nforcer is no good, a vote for LD seems better.

[JurseyRider734]

Changed my mind again. Cypher went from wanting to hosting this really badly(and almost doing so) to being completely inactive and making 2 posts in a short period of time, then we don't hear from him again. I'm finding this a little bit weird so im voting for Cypher because he is being a bad boy.

[alainbryden]

I never voted for LD, I said I would if it was necessary to save myself. As it is, I'm more convinced that Tsuteto is a wolf, and I won't vote ld, because my beleive that tsuteto is a wolf is stronger. I hope someone has the sense to change their vote off me. I vote Tsuteto, in the hope to not get lynched. Whorli can wait, she's not going anywhere tonight.



May the mods allow attaching pictures in this thread? It's much easier.

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by M-A-C

What are you talking about. If he gets guarded he IS human.

Not so. Say the guardian believes a wolf is human, or a wolf can convince the guardian that he is human. In this case, blah would have believed evilbutterfly was human, and, knowing the guardian contacted both the guardian and eb. blah would then tell others he was being guarded, with substantial evidence why, and the wolves, informed by eb that he was being guarded, vote for him during the night. Being guarded makes him look human, when he isn't, and he isn't suspected at all. A wolf's dream. eb could be the last wolf, and never be voted for, and we'd pick off all the humans one by one until three of us are left, two human and one wolf. One human is most likely killed. Wolves win.

Now, I must add this is highly unlikely, almost impossible. Imagine how horribly unfortunate it would be for us, though, if it was true. I would say that eb's humanity is about 97% certain. I personally believe that eb is human, even though he has voted for me twice.

[flypie743]

I never voted for LD, I said I would if it was necessary to save myself.

My bad, alain; I read wrong.

[alainbryden]

np flypie. It looks like it's a threeway tie. My vote will not be changed to ld, even though it would put him ahead, because I do not have as strong inclination for him as for Tsuteto

[M-A-C]

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

Not so. Say the guardian believes a wolf is human, or a wolf can convince the guardian that he is human. In this case, blah would have believed evilbutterfly was human, and, knowing the guardian contacted both the guardian and eb. blah would then tell others he was being guarded, with substantial evidence why, and the wolves, informed by eb that he was being guarded, vote for him during the night. Being guarded makes him look human, when he isn't, and he isn't suspected at all. A wolf's dream. eb could be the last wolf, and never be voted for, and we'd pick off all the humans one by one until three of us are left, two human and one wolf. One human is most likely killed. Wolves win.

Now, I must add this is highly unlikely, almost impossible. Imagine how horribly unfortunate it would be for us, though, if it was true. I would say that eb's humanity is about 97% certain. I personally believe that eb is human, even though he has voted for me twice.

A wolf would never take that chance. Sure it is possible, but I'm not sure anyone would take that big of a risk. So I'm just ganna assume that he is human.

[evilbutterfly]

Ya know, may be LD isn't a wolf. I think I'll vote for Tsuteto instead. He's in my post and also changed his vote twice. I really don't know guys. I held off on voting and now I'm changing around a bunch. Sorry if I lynch a human again!

[JurseyRider734]

Ok, i'm not going to put ld in jeopardy. Again back to alainbryden

[alainbryden]

Ld wasn't in jeopardy, Jursey, Tsuteto was in the lead for votes, and I was tied with LD. Your spastic voting is not doing favors to your credibility.