TWG XIX: Atomic Apocalypse: It just keeps going and going...

[JurseyRider734]

Tps: You could try not to act dumb for ONE GAME...see how it goes.

[Tps222]

Well, researched AP's previously wolfed games.

EB - WOLF (Lynched Day 2)
Roopert - MASON (Withdrew Day 2)
Eyespew - SEER (Won)
Matt4444 - HUMAN (Lynched Day 5)
aperson - MASON (Wolfed Night 2)
hans - PSYCHIC (Killed Night 3)
whorli - GUARDIAN (Killed Night 5)
TPS - WOLF (Lynched Day 1)
Jurs - HUMAN (Won)
Alain - DEVIL (Lost @ End of Game)
Guido - HUMAN (Killed Night 6)
Kilga - HUMAN (Lynched Day 3)
Stretchy - MASON (Killed Night 1)
Cypher- WOLF (Lynched Day 6)
Kefit - HUMAN (Won)
Afro - HUMAN (Lynched Day 4)
Mead - HUMAN (Won)

Wow, that sucks, it seems as I am the only player that's in this game out of those wolves. Well, this went no where fast .

Going to go back and analyze the people's reaction.

[talisman]

If I were a wolf right now I'd pray for a major lynch (aka lots of votes on the lynched player) or a very minor lynch (the person lynched only has two/three votes). I wouldn't want there to be a two-candidate situation, since then after the role is revealed following the lynching the votes and accusations and vote-rationales will be much easier to pick apart. Even in a normal game, wolves don't want to express too strong of opinions or step too far out into the spotlight, here, where roles are revealed upon death, I think they're bound to be even more cautious.

PS I'm assuming role is revealed after lynchings right? Not just after wolfings?

edit: this was aimed at d-guy's post... some stuff popped up while I was typing it I guess.

[Afrobean]

I had no idea that ap was a mason that game. Which game was it?

PS People's reactions will likely be totally irrelevent as that was his first game and it was a shock that he'd be wolfed like that his first game. Most of the reactions would be like "oh it makes sense that he was wolfed even though he's so new because he was helping out in the chat last night so much"

[Omeganitros]

Talisman hit the nail on the freaking head. But despite his words, I'm still skipping to phase V and voting...Saaaaaayyyyyyyyyy....mead1. But I'll have some talkings with peoples.

[Kilgamayan]

Random vote for lightdarkness.

[mead1]

I'm really not sure what to say now. The night 1 kill was an obvious one, and to all appearences, everything seems to be normal. talisman's chart on the Day 1 doldrums pretty much surmises my outlook for the day. That being said, I would like to talk to a few people on AIM to clear a few things up.

[aperson]

cool.

[Tasselfoot]

I've said it (and been right) in the past... someone who says "oh, that was a good kill... sh*t" is a wolf. Not EVERYONE... but at least 1 of them. I did it in at least 1 if not 2 or all 3 games when I was a wolf.

Its the basic 1 step reverse psychology trick. Now, the question is, are the wolves thinking ahead and know that multiple humans will come out like idiot lambs and say "wow, that was a good kill"... which is a COMPLETELY pointless statement to make. Its worse than useless because it takes people away from the real focus (which it did this game too). Frankly, if you look at past games, usually there are only 2 or 3 at most people who make this comment at the start of day 1, and almost always 1 is a wolf. I believe there are more this game, I'll go back and check after this post...

The point is, the odds are still strong that at least 1 (probably only 1, as the wolves wouldn't want to all come out like douches and say that) of the "wow, that was a good kill"ers is a wolf. I'll post a list of who said that after this post.

Oh yea... also, again... we know it was a good kill. There is NOT a reason to say it. Getting past the fact that he is a bigger ass than I am, he's also not too shabby at this game, although he hasn't played enough games for us to truely see his capabilities. But, he gets respect and treated as a "top tier" player nonetheless, and I can't argue with him being there. On the other hand, killing him gets rid of the "ap amusement" factor... him blowing up and giving a 4-letter diatribe at Chardish et al., or something along those lines. And those blowups or unique strategies are usually a distraction to the rest of the game, which I'm sure the wolves didn't consider when they killed him.

*shrugs* I hope this at least gives more in depth reasoning into why he was a good kill, also reasoning as to why he may not have been a good kill, hopefully a few day 1 suspects that are slightly more than random, and I sure as hell hope it knocks some sense into you lemmings to STOP SAYING DUMB STUFF LIKE "wow, that was a good kill" at the start of day 1!

[Tasselfoot]

Oh yea... I'm basically expanding on what TPS has been saying... and I agree with him completely.

LD and Omega start it off with retard useless posts that amount to nothing more than postwhoring, but make comment to ap's wolfing

Afro and Eric take it a little further, giving basic obvious reasoning as to why he is a good choice to be killed... again, agreeing with TPS, they seem like good choices at first glance, so far.

Qreepy comes in like THUNDER and attacks TPS, basically defending Afro and Eric...

At the end of page 2, Omega and Kilga put in random votes.... WHY?!? Are you honestly worried you won't be around from not until Sunday to post? Actually... I will be gone from Friday 2pm until Late Saturday... my oldest brother is having a bachelor party this weekend. But, I'll get Whorli to read my the thread at least once both days, and I'll dictate to her what I want posted. So fear not.

I think I had one other thing to say, but I forgot what it was. I really should write down this stuff when I'm re-reading everything and mentally checking off what I want to type out.

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

I've said it (and been right) in the past... someone who says "oh, that was a good kill... sh*t" is a wolf. Not EVERYONE... but at least 1 of them. I did it in at least 1 if not 2 or all 3 games when I was a wolf.

I don't think that's quite as much evidence as it used to be. After it being brought up (mostly by you) so often, most people should have (or at least I have) made a mental note not to do that if they're a wolf.

And yeah, what's with the random voting? That is going to get us nowhere. It's like forfeiting day 1. Imagine what would happen if we all did that!

I'm gonna go look at previous games and see if LD/Omega/Afro/Eric normally do that.

[talisman]

guys, if you're going to vote early, at least try to put a little punch behind it and then gauge the reaction of others who might A) bandwagon on to the vote or B) defend against the vote. Random voting is useless, unless you think you won't be here.

In other news, I doubt kilga and omega are wolves together, because random voting this early is sketchy enough--doing so right after one another compounds the sketchiness. Based on what accusations we have so far it would seem that tps isn't with afro or eric, but his accusations weren't strong enough to escape the margin of error, and it would seem that qreepy isn't with tps, although his whole "thunder" post could be (if he and tps were both wolves) designed to be overly strong so as to clearly distance him from tps. Tass' stated agreement with tps would also suggest that they aren't wolf partners, as he wouldn't want to make any connection between himself and a fellow wolf, but with tass you never know... IF he were a wolf I'd expect some double reverse psychology from him.

[Tasselfoot]

I agree with you dAnce... thought about it, but as it hurts my case, I didn't mention it. I'd still lay odds that I'm right.

Then again, if you're giving me LD and Omega in the field, I'm getting 4/15, which is almost 1/3, which would be random odds of 1 wolf. So, it isn't that big of a statement... I was more along the lines that Eric or Afro would be a wolf based upon that initial statement. Moreso Eric, IMO... not sure if he's ever been a wolf before, but I know back in TWG 1 (and unlike most, he played in TWG 1, 2, and 3 then didn't play again until 11 and 12, then not again until 17 or 18) he was unbelievably easy to peg as a blue in 1 post... clearly he's evolved since then, but he more than most might not be wary about the day 1 stupid comment about the night 1 kill.

[Tasselfoot]

Talisman: only double? hell, next time I'm a wolf I'm going so deep in psychology I'll run into neurology. 6, 7, 10 times I'll double back. I'll confuse myself.

Then again... no need to bring that up yet.

[dAnceguy117]

The thing about that is, at heart, as soon as you get past double, you're back to normal. As much as you can go on and on about it, it's still just two possibilities alternating.

Then again, that's completely irrelevant, hahah. What I posted to say was that LD, Omega, Afro, and Eric ALL did it IN A ROW last game. Afro was a wolf, of course, but still. I don't think it's anything out of the norm for them, I'm afraid. Odds are at least one of them is a wolf anyway, hah.

[Afrobean]

I always comment about the first kill. Duh it's only logical. That's all we have to talk about until Tps does something suspicious or people random vote.

Also, I reccomend that the seer seers Tass if they haven't already. I know that Tass could easily get Eric and me lynched on such weak evidence, and I don't think he's a stupid enough human that he'd try to lynch people on such minimal evidence. Also, given that fake usernames are allowed to PM, I reccomend that the seer PMs people with the results of any seerings that come back wolf.

[ImEric12]

Tass: I've been a wolf.. twice I believe. Once I got lynched early, another time I survived to the very end of the game, but lost to the other wolf team (that was Cypher's game)

I usually try to get a comment in pretty quick, because I remember a few games ago, people would really start to rouse pointless suspicion towards people who hadn't said almost anything day one.

I'm also reminded of last game where, although he turned out to be right, TPS just made all these random accusations out of nowhere.

[QreepyBORIS]

Checking the IP of the user(s) who blind PMed you is illegal, right?

[vashthestampede0987]

Seeing as roopert hasn't really been posting I'll single him out for a random vote.

[Afrobean]

Reguarding Tps's accusations last game: The way I see it, there are three types of wolf accusations.

#1: Absolutely no evidence. Often correct.
#2: Minimal evidence. Most often wrong.
#3: Strong evidence. Things like seer saying they seer'd them. Always correct unless it's a fake seer or something.

It's sad that it's always a bad idea to lynch someone on absolutely no evidence, though, as those are usually correct.

Originally Posted by QREEPY

Checking the IP of the user(s) who blind PMed you is illegal, right?

Yes. Any use of mod powers to gain an upperhand in this game is cheating.