TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'm probably not going to get followed, but whatever.

psychoangel691

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Probably going to switch to DFR because I think juckter can still produce content that's valuable tomorrow.

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Personally, I think DFR has contributed more. And if that trend continues they will produce more content tomorrow too

I'd prefer juckter gone because at least DFR is putting in some effort and is here to defend their position

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Well, I don't want to kill DFR after all.

juckter

So what's weird is....Haku was bussing her partner? I mean, if DFR was town and with votes that close why go for Juckter in this case? Even if Haku gets lynched the next day because of the suspicion that's still another 48 hours of Juckter not being dead.

I don't know how to take it if i'm being honest, but maybe we did have wolf/wolf as the wagon and Haku had to decide which partner to keep.

But I doubt she initially wanted to lynch a wolf, so Pyscho is actually starting to look town to me

[Precarious]

General thoughts on the night:

There are several scenarios accounting for the missing kill. Technically, the wolves could have purposely withheld a kill, in an attempt to frame Shado (fewer than three kills might call into question whether or not he represented an actual third killing power). However, this is unlikely given that Shado announced at EoD that he was targeting Haku (as Haku is now shown to be a wolf, they would have known Haku's death would further cement Shado's claim, meaning any false claimant to Vig/Vengeful would probably be lynched first).

Given the above, it would be imprudent for the wolves not to act. We also know that Shado was killed (which does at last fully confirm him obviously), which was most likely a wolf action (eliminating confirmed town is more valuable to them than to the SK, who doesn't have a team/special knowledge, although two confirmed/pseudo-confirmed town would pose a serious threat to any anti-town faction in the endgame).

It's thus very possible that Shado was doubled, which makes more sense the more I think about it. Although the SK might have bet on the wolves targeting Shado, all remaining scenarios require a failed kill. An attempt on Charu seems unlikely, as such an attempt would be expected to fail ahead of time. The only other block possibility is 1-shot protection of the SK, which both assumes a 1-shot bulletproof SK, and assumes the wolves targeted that player. This seems unlikely as targeting a player other than Shado would be foolhardy for them; since they would have known Shado was not a wolf, they would have likely suspected he was telling the truth (or was possibly the SK). There was no one other than Charu that the SK could have targeted with expectation of failure, so it's unlikely that player was blocked.

And now back to what matters.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Precarious

General thoughts on the night:

There are several scenarios accounting for the missing kill. Technically, the wolves could have purposely withheld a kill, in an attempt to frame Shado (fewer than three kills might call into question whether or not he represented an actual third killing power). However, this is unlikely given that Shado announced at EoD that he was targeting Haku (as Haku is now shown to be a wolf, they would have known Haku's death would further cement Shado's claim, meaning any false claimant to Vig/Vengeful would probably be lynched first).

Given the above, it would be imprudent for the wolves not to act. We also know that Shado was killed (which does at last fully confirm him obviously), which was most likely a wolf action (eliminating confirmed town is more valuable to them than to the SK, who doesn't have a team/special knowledge, although two confirmed/pseudo-confirmed town would pose a serious threat to any anti-town faction in the endgame).

It's thus very possible that Shado was doubled, which makes more sense the more I think about it. Although the SK might have bet on the wolves targeting Shado, all remaining scenarios require a failed kill. An attempt on Charu seems unlikely, as such an attempt would be expected to fail ahead of time. The only other block possibility is 1-shot protection of the SK, which both assumes a 1-shot bulletproof SK, and assumes the wolves targeted that player. This seems unlikely as targeting a player other than Shado would be foolhardy for them; since they would have known Shado was not a wolf, they would have likely suspected he was telling the truth (or was possibly the SK). There was no one other than Charu that the SK could have targeted with expectation of failure, so it's unlikely that player was blocked.

And now back to what matters.

I feel like I could respond to this entire post by simply typing out "no shit"

Therefore I believe this to be a bad post.

[XelNya]

rly

[XelNya]

The man posts his whole thought process and you get angry at him for it

[XelNya]

was wrong wit u

[Precarious]

Reading through the new stuff, I see there's some suspicion of me, which I assume is due to Juckter flipping wolf, while I advocated for a different lynch. This makes little sense to me, as everything that has happened fits my reads:

Originally Posted by Precarious

Current probable scum pool is DFR, one of Haku/Xel, one of subs/Juckter. SK is more difficult, but I'd look for low and/or empty activity.

And for the record, I still think we should lynch DFR. My reasoning still applies; the OMGUS push onto me yesterday indicated a player who hadn't actually been following along, as the post made an obvious and objective mistake. In addition to the basic issues of (1) dishonesty and (2) valuing self-preservation over making legitimate reads, wolves are less likely to be reading carefully as they already know player alignment, which means they're more concerned with how people perceive them than what they think about the broader game.

Having said that, I'm also suspicious of Zenith, who screwed up earlier and is now my leading candidate for the other anti-town player, probably the serial killer.

An important part of this game is keeping track of what people know, what people don't know, and why. Zenith starts out by making an effort to discredit me through repetition:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Mechanically three options happened:

Stacked Kill
BP was popped on SK
BP was popped on Charu

Do you get a notification if BP gets popped? I forget and am too lazy to look it up right now but if not then rip (if it was charu for example, rip).

Gonna say this now after seeing Juckter flip wolf I'm now really looking at Precarious as Anti-Town.

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Little tinfoil here, but I believe the last wolf may reside in a more vet player which leaves me at Roundbox/Xelnya as potentially the last one.

Now being that alone is tinfoil (mainly feel this way because of Gradiant's death d0), I'm actually more heavily keen on Precarious as a very good candidate for anti-town here.

I'll have to start building a case on him and do more isolations but yeah, that's where I am after seeing not one but two wolf flips.

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

1. danceflashgun (danceflashrevo) - Isolation
2. Charuzard (Charu) - PR
3. psychoangel691 - Town Lean
4. PriCARius (Precarious) - Suspect
5. boundrocks (roundbox) - Isolation
6. MixMasterLar - Isolation (Still feel bad about his fucking shit attitude and annoying aggression)
7. Sell?Nah (XelNya) - Isolation
8. melanxcholy (mellonxcollie) - Town Lean

Where I'm at with reads and where I need to start looking this phase.

This repetition seems like overkill, but the second and third posts do contain some new information each time, so there's nothing objectively wrong with them. However, that's not the case when he goes to the well for the fourth time.

While refusing to answer someone else's questions, he again turns to me:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

It'd make sense of why Botchi was doing good if you want to look at this at surface level, but it isn't enough to go ahead and claim such on MML.

I'm still looking at Precarious as a likely SK candidate.

And here he errs mechanically.

According to his first quoted post, his reason for suspecting me is the Juckter situation. As I said, I can only assume this is because I was leading an alternative wagon, since Juckter had been hugely inactive to the point that his reads (disqualified anyway) are basically irrelevant. To me, this suggests he thinks I was trying to protect Juckter by lynching someone else. Setting aside that my case against DFR far predates EoD anyway, the problem is that Zenith's apparent logic should paint me as a wolf. But instead, he paints me as a serial killer. Note: a serial killer in mafia/werewolf games has, by definition, no allies and no special alignment knowledge. If I was a serial killer, I would have no incentive to protect anyone and would in fact be as motivated as a town player to kill wolves. Herein lies the contradiction. If he thinks I'm a serial killer, he can only arrive at that through a gut read or post analysis. But his initial case against me (see the first quoted post) relies on Juckter flipping red, not on anything I've said or any feeling he might have had about me.

I conclude that Zenith is projecting himself onto me inadvertently, which would explain his lapse in accusatory logic.

***

TLDR: I want DFR's pelt on my wall and I should probably start calling Zenith Zodiac again. Shouldn't I, Mr. Cruz?

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

The man posts his whole thought process and you get angry at him for it

His whole thought process could be boiled down to "kills got doubled stacked" which has already been stated and the whole post comes off as white noise to me. It's as bad as you ignoring my questions to you and trying to defend him.

Read my post, and actually play the game Xel



Anyhow:

Originally Posted by Precarious

Reading through the new stuff, I see there's some suspicion of me, which I assume is due to Juckter flipping wolf, while I advocated for a different lynch. This makes little sense to me, as everything that has happened fits my reads:



And for the record, I still think we should lynch DFR. My reasoning still applies; the OMGUS push onto me yesterday indicated a player who hadn't actually been following along, as the post made an obvious and objective mistake. In addition to the basic issues of (1) dishonesty and (2) valuing self-preservation over making legitimate reads, wolves are less likely to be reading carefully as they already know player alignment, which means they're more concerned with how people perceive them than what they think about the broader game.

Having said that, I'm also suspicious of Zenith, who screwed up earlier and is now my leading candidate for the other anti-town player, probably the serial killer.

An important part of this game is keeping track of what people know, what people don't know, and why. Zenith starts out by making an effort to discredit me through repetition:







This repetition seems like overkill, but the second and third posts do contain some new information each time, so there's nothing objectively wrong with them. However, that's not the case when he goes to the well for the fourth time.

While refusing to answer someone else's questions, he again turns to me:



And here he errs mechanically.

According to his first quoted post, his reason for suspecting me is the Juckter situation. As I said, I can only assume this is because I was leading an alternative wagon, since Juckter had been hugely inactive to the point that his reads (disqualified anyway) are basically irrelevant. To me, this suggests he thinks I was trying to protect Juckter by lynching someone else. Setting aside that my case against DFR far predates EoD anyway, the problem is that Zenith's apparent logic should paint me as a wolf. But instead, he paints me as a serial killer. Note: a serial killer in mafia/werewolf games has, by definition, no allies and no special alignment knowledge. If I was a serial killer, I would have no incentive to protect anyone and would in fact be as motivated as a town player to kill wolves. Herein lies the contradiction. If he thinks I'm a serial killer, he can only arrive at that through a gut read or post analysis. But his initial case against me (see the first quoted post) relies on Juckter flipping red, not on anything I've said or any feeling he might have had about me.

I conclude that Zenith is projecting himself onto me inadvertently, which would explain his lapse in accusatory logic.

***

TLDR: I want DFR's pelt on my wall and I should probably start calling Zenith Zodiac again. Shouldn't I, Mr. Cruz?

This is a good post and I think I like the thought process, although I'm not likely to vote Zenith atm

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

The point is he came In and pushed on a wolf, so it isn't likely he is on their team.
I mean DFR might also be scum but we know Juckter was so that's why him voting Juckter over DFR is positive

I mean, Pyscho could sfill be the SK but DPB's meta doesnt really support that nor is there yet a reason to seriously suspect that. I honestly have to place him at null for now.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Anyway Xel I'm glad you see my point about EoD. Let's get some juicy Xel post tonight my man give me your thoughts on EoD and people's reaction to it now

*Flips table*

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

The point is he came In and pushed on a wolf, so it isn't likely he is on their team.
I mean DFR might also be scum but we know Juckter was so that's why him voting Juckter over DFR is positive

Also nice circular structure of this statement.

[XelNya]

Pushing a wolf can equal bussing a lost cause
Pushing a wolf can equal being the SK trying to get a free mislynch or kill a scum and save your night kill for someone else

riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

[XelNya]

Hey there

captain hindsight

here back with another










legiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit shit post

[XelNya]

I promise less sarcastic posts are coming.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Pushing a wolf can equal bussing a lost cause
Pushing a wolf can equal being the SK trying to get a free mislynch or kill a scum and save your night kill for someone else

riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

1) possible. I only say that it looked good on him not that t cleared him
2) Pretty sure I said he could still be SK

Man so much space you used to ultimately say jack shit

Originally Posted by XelNya

I promise less sarcastic posts are coming.

Most sarcastic post of the night

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

1) possible. I only say that it looked good on him not that t cleared him

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Votes from post 960 to post 1764
It is night
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 5 -- juckter1 -- _Zenith_ (74), psychoangel691 (28), mellonxcollie (19), Hakulyte (115), roundbox (41)
• 4 -- danceflashrevo -- Precarious (31), XelNya (43), Charu (243), juckter1 (12)
• 1 -- mellonxcollie -- danceflashrevo (62)
• 1 -- psychoangel691 -- MixMasterLar (43)
• 1 -- unvote -- ShadoWolfe (78)

Note: Bussing is a thing.

[XelNya]

Is that clear cut enough?

[MixMasterLar]

Yeah Xel, I get it. People bus. It happens. It happened this game with Haku. I pointed this out.

You uh...leading to something or was this the point that was suppose to blow my mind?

[danceflashrevo]

juckter literally tried to self pres vote on me, haku almost jumped on me to save juckter. do you really think 2/3 of a wolf team would sell me out if i was a wolf? this might be bad logic and scummy to say but, like... really? and precarious if i was worried about self pres i wouldn't have been screaming that juckter was town. i would've went with it.

[danceflashrevo]

because that bandwagon fired up pretty quickly, of course it was right in hindsight and i was wrong again but you know, what's knew for me OpieOP

17 guests hi

[danceflashrevo]

because that bandwagon fired up pretty quickly, of course it was right in hindsight and i was wrong again but you know, what's knew for me OpieOP

17 guests hi