TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud - Page 9

GuidoHunter · 08-10-2006, 02:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Hey Andy... posting ANY screenshot AT ALL is against the rules. Way to represent TWC, bro.

That's why there's a council, so that someone else can remind me if I forget a rule. =)

If I may point out a technicality, though, the rules state that you can't SS anything from/with the host or conversations with other players. I can't think of anything else you might want to SS, but whatever...

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

Wilkin · 08-10-2006, 09:49 AM

My thoughts:

1) Blah's idea. The one constant in this situation is Cypher. That means Cypher can do whatever he pleases without anyone else knowing or mattering. Even if the plan is that a few people will get 3 or 4 guards, he could just tell everyone to vote the same person, and no one would be the wiser (assuming no one talked about it with more than four people). For example, if he told everyone to guard X (including the wolves), and the wolves, thinking they just happened to get the majority of guards on X assigned to them, went for someone else and tried to wolf X, then chances are the guard would still happen. This idea would have to be very cleverly done to work.

2) Successful guards. I see a successful guard in this game no more trustworthy than a seer'd human in a game with a MW, and perhaps that's how we should think of all guards. Tonight, for example, there's going to be a 7% chance of a wolf target with one vote being guarded, and I think it's safe to say that most people will have at least 1 vote to their name. In a seer/MW game, tonight's chance of seering a human that is the MW would be 9%, or an 8% chance of seering them in general. Though the circumstances are different, once a person with at least one vote is targeted, the chances would pretty much be the same as seering the person. If they're guarded, they could be the "MW," as it were. If not, they're dead. This is how I think of it, and perhaps it'll calm down the discussion and debating going on.

3) My problem. Today I'm going to be working at the Lincoln Financial Field for the first pre-season game there, and will be gone from noon to eleven at the latest (I'm a supervisor/non-profit liason for the non-profit groups there). Thus, I won't have time to participate in the traditional Day 1 vote-swing-a-thon, and I'll have to make my decision now:

4) My vote. I'm going to go for Omega for the placeholder. I don't feel comfortable voting any of the ones currently on the board, mainly for the fact that I won't be here to change it if something new comes up, and the crazy swinging ensues.

Depending on when I get back tonight (RL), I might be available to post some during the night (not RL).

StoicRoivaS · 08-10-2006, 02:59 PM

Wilkin, not that I need to keep defending my point, because, frankly, there's no reason to other than the fact that I want to be as active as possible on the thread, but I'll explain further. The situation we're in is really nothing like that of a seered MW. Assuming that seer targets are entirely random, and that there's only 1 MW in a 16 person game the odds are obviously 1/16 or 6.25%. In our situation, we have 16 players (at the start of the game), 3 wolves, and 1 wolfsbane (vigi not important to this argument as he's a) hidden and b) essentially a green for guard/wolf purposes). So assuming the wolves would never try and wolf Cypher, random wolfing would put them at 1/15 or 6.67% or even at 1/12 or 8.33% if they choose to wolf humans only. So, yes, the numbers are similar, but wolves don't wolf randomly, and we don't guard randomly, and the fact of the matter is, unless multiple people announce who they are guarding publicly, the best shot the wolves have at wolfing one of their own would be 3/16 or 18.75%. Granted, as more time goes on the number will rise, but it also becomes less useful and more untrustworthy. Obviously it's possible, but as far as here and now, in this specific game of TWG, it seems highly unlikely. If it were day 5, yeah, question it, but if it happens in the next night or two, I'd be more than happy. Peace and keep the peace.

FoJaR · 08-10-2006, 04:07 PM

hey guys i'm sorry, i'm going to have to ask to be replaced. the internet that i was borrowing from the neighbors has gone out, seemingly permanently.

in a few weeks i'll be back at school with net, but for the time being i dont really have internet access (at the library now, cant make it here every day).

sorry for the inconvenience.

**Kilgamayan** · 08-10-2006, 04:41 PM

Jurs has agreed to replace FoJaR.

Voting chart coming up in a moment.

JurseyRider734 · 08-10-2006, 04:41 PM

HI IM JURS BRB READING THREAD

**Kilgamayan** · 08-10-2006, 04:50 PM

Kawaii Voting Chart ^_^

Tass: 2 (blah, Fish)
Tps: 2 (Jurs, Cypher)
blah: 2 (Shash. ap)
ap: 2 (Kefit, Afro)
Afro: 1 (Stoic)

Yet to vote: 6 other people

Don't forget, the deadline is in less than 3 hours.

JurseyRider734 · 08-10-2006, 06:06 PM

Okay I read the thread.

Basically, I think that sending Cypher the top 3 guard picks is a pretty good plan. I recall Tass saying how Cypher could PM everyone 1 person and all I have to say is that there would be no reason for Cypher to do something like that unless he was actually a wolf. He wouldn't try to screw over the humans if he knew it wasn't in our best interest.

The only other thing that pops up in my head when I think about what I read was Shash. He sort of reminds me of sertman last game. First time, trying to sound really educated about what's going on, etc. Not a definite "wolf" for me, but a possible person to continue looking at for the next few days.

k

Afrobean · 08-10-2006, 06:40 PM

Oh man.

Someone else should vote for me and make it a 5 way tie. That would be really funny.

and regarding the MW analogy: I only glanced at the posts, but the statistics aren't really what was meant by the analogy, I'm sure. I'd imagine it was used to further elaborate into the "don't trust a guarded person 100%" I've been so adamant about because the same is true of a seer'd human in a game with MW. Any person seer'd human in a game with MW is not trusted as definitely human and that's the point to be made about guarded people in this game.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-10-2006, 06:43 PM

Hey Jurs... please re-read the thread. BLAH said that. I've been adamently against it the entire time, and even have a chat log with myself, blah, and ap to prove it. Not to mention 1 on 1 conversaion with blah AND postings here in the forum.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-10-2006, 06:48 PM

tass, guido, flypie, tps, omega, and wilkin still need to vote.

about 55 minutes to go...

blahblah18 · 08-10-2006, 07:17 PM

i've ocme up with plans to help our team, I stnad yb the guard concept saving lots of people. People need to decide who is wolfiest

Omeganitros · 08-10-2006, 07:20 PM

WHAT!? Oh, ****!

Um
Um
Um
Um

****! Who to vote for!

Ummmmmmmmmmm...

I guess I'll return Wilkin's favor and "placeholder" vote him (except it's not a placeholder, I just don't have good suspicions yet).

**FishFishRevolution** · 08-10-2006, 07:23 PM

I've decided that all things considered, I will keep my vote on Tass for today. If anyone has anything they'd like to talk to me about, they can PM me or call me on my cell. I think Tass and Jurs have my cell so if it's about TWG and urgent, you guys can give out my number.

**Kilgamayan** · 08-10-2006, 07:28 PM

Kawaii Voting Chart ^_^

Tass: 2 (blah, Fish)
Tps: 2 (Jurs, Cypher)
blah: 2 (Shash. ap)
ap: 2 (Kefit, Afro)
Afro: 1 (Stoic)
Omega: 1 (Wilkin)
Wilkin: 1 (Omega)

13 minutes to go.

Afrobean · 08-10-2006, 07:32 PM

This is probably the gayest end of day 1 ever.

flypie743 · 08-10-2006, 07:36 PM

I'm gonna put my vote on iggy/stoic because of iggy's behavior Day 1. He was pushing really really hard for guard votes to be out in the public and it just seemed odd to me.

MilfeulleSakuraba · 08-10-2006, 07:37 PM

What a shame it had to end like this, I was impressed with the number of posts.

5 minutes.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-10-2006, 07:40 PM

tps

1. didn't contact me once on AIM about TWG. First time ever, I believe

2. posted absolutely nothing helpful all day.

3. will get a phantom if he survives.

MilfeulleSakuraba · 08-10-2006, 07:42 PM

VOTING ENDSU

Tass: 2 (blah, Fish)
Tps: 3 (Jurs, Cypher, Tass)
blah: 2 (Shash. ap)
ap: 2 (Kefit, Afro)
Afro: 1 (Stoic)
Omega: 1 (Wilkin)
Wilkin: 1 (Omega)
Stoic: 1 (flypie)

Phantom: Guido

lol indecision

08-10-2006, 09:49 AM	#162
Wilkin FFR Player Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,800	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud My thoughts: 1) Blah's idea. The one constant in this situation is Cypher. That means Cypher can do whatever he pleases without anyone else knowing or mattering. Even if the plan is that a few people will get 3 or 4 guards, he could just tell everyone to vote the same person, and no one would be the wiser (assuming no one talked about it with more than four people). For example, if he told everyone to guard X (including the wolves), and the wolves, thinking they just happened to get the majority of guards on X assigned to them, went for someone else and tried to wolf X, then chances are the guard would still happen. This idea would have to be very cleverly done to work. 2) Successful guards. I see a successful guard in this game no more trustworthy than a seer'd human in a game with a MW, and perhaps that's how we should think of all guards. Tonight, for example, there's going to be a 7% chance of a wolf target with one vote being guarded, and I think it's safe to say that most people will have at least 1 vote to their name. In a seer/MW game, tonight's chance of seering a human that is the MW would be 9%, or an 8% chance of seering them in general. Though the circumstances are different, once a person with at least one vote is targeted, the chances would pretty much be the same as seering the person. If they're guarded, they could be the "MW," as it were. If not, they're dead. This is how I think of it, and perhaps it'll calm down the discussion and debating going on. 3) My problem. Today I'm going to be working at the Lincoln Financial Field for the first pre-season game there, and will be gone from noon to eleven at the latest (I'm a supervisor/non-profit liason for the non-profit groups there). Thus, I won't have time to participate in the traditional Day 1 vote-swing-a-thon, and I'll have to make my decision now: 4) My vote. I'm going to go for Omega for the placeholder. I don't feel comfortable voting any of the ones currently on the board, mainly for the fact that I won't be here to change it if something new comes up, and the crazy swinging ensues. Depending on when I get back tonight (RL), I might be available to post some during the night (not RL).

08-10-2006, 02:59 PM	#163
StoicRoivaS FFR Player Join Date: May 2006 Location: OC Age: 39 Posts: 548	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Wilkin, not that I need to keep defending my point, because, frankly, there's no reason to other than the fact that I want to be as active as possible on the thread, but I'll explain further. The situation we're in is really nothing like that of a seered MW. Assuming that seer targets are entirely random, and that there's only 1 MW in a 16 person game the odds are obviously 1/16 or 6.25%. In our situation, we have 16 players (at the start of the game), 3 wolves, and 1 wolfsbane (vigi not important to this argument as he's a) hidden and b) essentially a green for guard/wolf purposes). So assuming the wolves would never try and wolf Cypher, random wolfing would put them at 1/15 or 6.67% or even at 1/12 or 8.33% if they choose to wolf humans only. So, yes, the numbers are similar, but wolves don't wolf randomly, and we don't guard randomly, and the fact of the matter is, unless multiple people announce who they are guarding publicly, the best shot the wolves have at wolfing one of their own would be 3/16 or 18.75%. Granted, as more time goes on the number will rise, but it also becomes less useful and more untrustworthy. Obviously it's possible, but as far as here and now, in this specific game of TWG, it seems highly unlikely. If it were day 5, yeah, question it, but if it happens in the next night or two, I'd be more than happy. Peace and keep the peace. __________________ Like the moon over the day, my genius and brawn are wasted on these fools. ~Haiku -Bowser

08-10-2006, 04:07 PM	#164
FoJaR The Worst Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: space ghost is dead to me Posts: 2,816	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud hey guys i'm sorry, i'm going to have to ask to be replaced. the internet that i was borrowing from the neighbors has gone out, seemingly permanently. in a few weeks i'll be back at school with net, but for the time being i dont really have internet access (at the library now, cant make it here every day). sorry for the inconvenience. __________________

08-10-2006, 04:41 PM	#165
Kilgamayan Super Scooter Happy Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Location, Location. Age: 39 Posts: 6,583	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Jurs has agreed to replace FoJaR. Voting chart coming up in a moment. __________________ I watched clouds awobbly from the floor o' that kayak. Souls cross ages like clouds cross skies, an' tho' a cloud's shape nor hue nor size don't stay the same, it's still a cloud an' so is a soul. Who can say where the cloud's blowed from or who the soul'll be 'morrow? Only Sonmi the east an' the west an' the compass an' the atlas, yay, only the atlas o' clouds.

08-10-2006, 04:50 PM	#167
Kilgamayan Super Scooter Happy Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Location, Location. Age: 39 Posts: 6,583	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Kawaii Voting Chart ^_^ Tass: 2 (blah, Fish) Tps: 2 (Jurs, Cypher) blah: 2 (Shash. ap) ap: 2 (Kefit, Afro) Afro: 1 (Stoic) Yet to vote: 6 other people Don't forget, the deadline is in less than 3 hours. __________________ I watched clouds awobbly from the floor o' that kayak. Souls cross ages like clouds cross skies, an' tho' a cloud's shape nor hue nor size don't stay the same, it's still a cloud an' so is a soul. Who can say where the cloud's blowed from or who the soul'll be 'morrow? Only Sonmi the east an' the west an' the compass an' the atlas, yay, only the atlas o' clouds.

08-10-2006, 06:40 PM	#169
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Oh man. Someone else should vote for me and make it a 5 way tie. That would be really funny. and regarding the MW analogy: I only glanced at the posts, but the statistics aren't really what was meant by the analogy, I'm sure. I'd imagine it was used to further elaborate into the "don't trust a guarded person 100%" I've been so adamant about because the same is true of a seer'd human in a game with MW. Any person seer'd human in a game with MW is not trusted as definitely human and that's the point to be made about guarded people in this game. __________________

08-10-2006, 06:43 PM	#170
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Hey Jurs... please re-read the thread. BLAH said that. I've been adamently against it the entire time, and even have a chat log with myself, blah, and ap to prove it. Not to mention 1 on 1 conversaion with blah AND postings here in the forum. __________________ RIP

08-10-2006, 06:48 PM	#171
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud tass, guido, flypie, tps, omega, and wilkin still need to vote. about 55 minutes to go... __________________ RIP

08-10-2006, 07:17 PM	#172
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud i've ocme up with plans to help our team, I stnad yb the guard concept saving lots of people. People need to decide who is wolfiest __________________ but for now... postCount++

08-10-2006, 07:20 PM	#173
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud WHAT!? Oh, **! Um Um Um Um ! Who to vote for! Ummmmmmmmmmm... I guess I'll return Wilkin**'s favor and "placeholder" vote him (except it's not a placeholder, I just don't have good suspicions yet).

08-10-2006, 07:23 PM	#174
FishFishRevolution GotR Creator Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Vi sitter här i venten Current Band: The National Age: 37 Posts: 7,251	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I've decided that all things considered, I will keep my vote on Tass for today. If anyone has anything they'd like to talk to me about, they can PM me or call me on my cell. I think Tass and Jurs have my cell so if it's about TWG and urgent, you guys can give out my number. __________________

08-10-2006, 07:28 PM	#175
Kilgamayan Super Scooter Happy Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Location, Location. Age: 39 Posts: 6,583	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Kawaii Voting Chart ^_^ Tass: 2 (blah, Fish) Tps: 2 (Jurs, Cypher) blah: 2 (Shash. ap) ap: 2 (Kefit, Afro) Afro: 1 (Stoic) Omega: 1 (Wilkin) Wilkin: 1 (Omega) 13 minutes to go. __________________ I watched clouds awobbly from the floor o' that kayak. Souls cross ages like clouds cross skies, an' tho' a cloud's shape nor hue nor size don't stay the same, it's still a cloud an' so is a soul. Who can say where the cloud's blowed from or who the soul'll be 'morrow? Only Sonmi the east an' the west an' the compass an' the atlas, yay, only the atlas o' clouds.

08-10-2006, 07:32 PM	#176
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud This is probably the gayest end of day 1 ever. __________________

08-10-2006, 07:36 PM	#177
flypie743 FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: fairyland Posts: 3,210	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I'm gonna put my vote on iggy/stoic because of iggy's behavior Day 1. He was pushing really really hard for guard votes to be out in the public and it just seemed odd to me. __________________ IF YOU ARE THE BOMB YOU WILL CLICK THIS and if you dont, you suck.

08-10-2006, 07:37 PM	#178
MilfeulleSakuraba Ryoko Shintani is #1! Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Transbaal Galaxy Age: 35 Posts: 403	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud What a shame it had to end like this, I was impressed with the number of posts. 5 minutes. __________________

08-10-2006, 07:40 PM	#179
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud tps 1. didn't contact me once on AIM about TWG. First time ever, I believe 2. posted absolutely nothing helpful all day. 3. will get a phantom if he survives. __________________ RIP

08-10-2006, 07:42 PM	#180
MilfeulleSakuraba Ryoko Shintani is #1! Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Transbaal Galaxy Age: 35 Posts: 403	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud VOTING ENDSU Tass: 2 (blah, Fish) Tps: 3 (Jurs, Cypher, Tass) blah: 2 (Shash. ap) ap: 2 (Kefit, Afro) Afro: 1 (Stoic) Omega: 1 (Wilkin) Wilkin: 1 (Omega) Stoic: 1 (flypie) Phantom: Guido lol indecision __________________

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