TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4 - Page 9

01-7-2005, 03:27 PM

The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.

blahblah18 · 01-7-2005, 03:28 PM

Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game?

**Kilgamayan** · 01-7-2005, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardish

The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.

Sorry I saw math and I was like OMG POUNCE :(

Afrobean · 01-7-2005, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blahblah18

Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game?

Yea, sorry about bringing that up. We really need to get more posting (relevent posting anyway) here so I can decide who to vote for.

blahblah18 · 01-7-2005, 03:43 PM

yeah, come on Chardish / Kilga, post something relative, eh? .....

Kefit · 01-7-2005, 05:43 PM

Alright, it looks like I will be placing a vote for Alainbryden.

I know from past games that Alain has been trusting of others. This is important - not trusting others and being paranoid ultimately leads to the demise of the humans. The thing is, trust in this game can't be blind. To do so may as well be to walk into the clutches of the wolves.

However, in past games, I can see reasons for Alain to have held the trust that he did - it was further into the game, and substantial activity, both on aim and in the thread, had occured. But this game he has started trusting people right out of the gate, and I don't see anything that could have substantiated it. I suppose that he could just be a stupid human, but I know that Alain is rather intelligent, so I don't think this is the case.

JurseyRider734 · 01-7-2005, 05:47 PM

HELLO KEFIT. ITS NICE TO SEE YOU AROUND. COME BACK AGAIN SOME TIME =)

Afrobean · 01-7-2005, 06:27 PM

I need to put a vote on someone to avoid instalynch. I'd totally forgotten Kefit was in this game. His punishment for not posting: a vote from me.

flypie743 · 01-7-2005, 06:37 PM

Rofl, I was going to do the same thing Afro. I don't feel that Alain deserves my vote. Kefit has my attention because I thought he would actually be glad he didn't die on night 1 again :P like he did for two games before. I would have thought Kefit would have been more active. So, my vote goes to Kefit for day 1.

EDIT: Also, I am just going with my gut feeling on this one.

Tsuteto · 01-7-2005, 06:57 PM

Alright, I'm changing my vote to JurseyRider734. The main reasoning for this is I was following everyone elses' opinion, and going very little on my own. How do we know that she posted that just so we would vote for alain straight out, and not for her? I personally think that Jurs was just trying to get us aiming for alain so we wouldn't make suspicions of her.

Afrobean · 01-7-2005, 07:03 PM

Tsuteto, that's a good idea, but think of this. Jurs is still a newb to TWG. My belief is that she's a human who just didn't realize that Alain, being human or agent, is helping the humans. She thought that what Alain said was strange (which I gotta admit, it really is) and so she decided to post it so that others would know of Alain's weird technique. My current standing on both of these individuals: most likely humans who made some dumb mistakes.

JurseyRider734 · 01-7-2005, 07:09 PM

Yeah, I didn't realize that my post could be taken two ways. I was just trying to help you guys out because I was suspicious of him.

evilbutterfly · 01-7-2005, 07:12 PM

If anybody has noticed my inactivity: sorry. I was at school, and after school I hung out with a friend for a loooong time. We played a ton of DDR (about 50 songs worth) and then I finally came home and I showed him/let him play HL2/CSS. I didn't wanna waste his time reading the TWG thread and all that, so I'm just now getting around to posting (after eating dinner and whatnot).

Anywho, I feel that at least one person who voted for alain is a wolf. Also, the people who have posted yet not voted...one of them is probably a wolf, too. That narrows it down to a few and a whole lot with some possibility therein. Not good, but it's day 1, so I can't really expect much. Now you may call me wolfy for defending a suspected person, but I really don't think alain is a wolf. Well, more like I think he should stay alive for a day or two more, just to see how things go.

One thing I just thought of: everybody keeps saying how alain has been a wolf so many times. Let's look back at his previous games. As a wolf, he fooled Tass his first try, almost duped me, and did pretty well. He and stretchy also owned the humans last game. He did both these things in crafty ways, not crazy "double reverse psychology" and wild forum posts. This pretty much rules out his being a stupid wolf. Also, look at alain's human games. He failed terribly. He sucks at being a human. He does stupid things. Look at what he's doing now. Stupid stuff. He'd know better if he was a wolf, or so I would think.

And now, on to who I suspect. Earlier today (game day) Chardish voted for me with bad reasoning. I pointed out that Alain did the same thing in TWG5 (one of his tricky wolf tactics that nobody suspected) and that I was suspicious of Chardish for it. I said I wouldn't vote for him, but see how he reacted to my post and if he had any further reasoning. A quick look back at the thread shows that he DIDN'T react to my post, not even a little bit. He completely ignored it. To me, this was because may be I caught him in the act. Maybe I called him on what he was doing and he figured "crap, I should pick on somebody else!"

Also, Chardish is a smart guy. He reads into things and posts intelligently. His vote for me was without a whole lot of reasoning. I'm acting how I always do (which raises some people's suspicions, because I talk so much and don't care if I say things others are afraid to) and he voted for me because of it. I would have passed this off as a stupid Day 1 vote, but the lack of any kind of response concerning my post about his vote bothers me. I would think that he would at least say that it was just a Day 1 vote, or that he was changing his vote off of me because alain is more suspcious or something, but he didn't mention me at all after his post.

A bit odd? I dunno, you tell me, Chardish.

evilbutterfly · 01-7-2005, 07:24 PM

Btw, Alain also contacted me yesterday. He said that whole "act suspicious of me so I don't get wolfed" story to me and I thought it was dumb, not wolfy. It was selfish; it was something I would do if I was desperate. He went about it badly (going to so many so quick), however, so I figured he was just being dumb and didn't say anything.

I also talked with Jurs, and she thinks I'm sketchy. It was practically the only serious convo I've had with her EVER, so I have no idea if she's acting sketchy or not.

Talked to blah, too. He's friendly...a bit too friendly, I think. However, I had never talked with him before during TWG, so I have no idea.

Talk to afro as usual. He seems pretty normal this time around. Can't be too sure, though.

If there's anybody else I've talked to, I forget. Couldn't have been much nor was it important if this is the case. If anybody wants to talk to me, I'm usually on AIM. If not, it's because I've been kicked a whole bunch (wireless network acting dumb + house has bad, jamming wiring = I get kicked a whole bunch) and I'm on an alternate sn. My main sn is evilbutterfly87. My alternate is IHateDLink (D-Link is the brand of wireless we have. I made the sn just because I got kicked so much).

blahblah18 · 01-7-2005, 07:28 PM

Ok I don't like how Chardish and Kilga were both following the thread and then completely silent when I asked them to say something useful... I"m suspicious of both, but much more so Chardish, becasue he is usually more active then this and with better reasoning. I don't like how he's been following the thread but remaining relatively quiet. So for this, and for no even possible explanation of a change of vote or any even recognition of my giant post before, I'm gonna have to vote
Chardish

EDITING JUST TO MAKE THE NAME BOLD

Afrobean · 01-7-2005, 07:28 PM

I was a little suspicious of Chardish before. The way he responded to Alain really made me suspicious, and don't forget, I believe Alain is most likely human. I would have voted for Chardish before, but after I voted a big time player last game, which I would have done as a human anyway given the info I had, I am fearful to. However, I was assured that this would not get me lynch'd like last time, so I am going to go for Chardish.

nforcer06164 · 01-7-2005, 07:31 PM

I must admit, my doubts of alain have been growing every minute. I am starting to think he may actually be human. I am still not sure, but I can't ignore the feeling I'm getting.

I finally saw what I was looking for. I was waiting this. Somebody here posted the vote that amplified my doubts. I had a feeling from the early posts that alain and this other person might be wolves. Now I realize that the vote he made made an instalynch of alain possible. He couldn't have known whether or not people would vote to take out alain inevitably. I don't think that one wolf would put another in danger of instalynch. That person is Kefit.

Tsuteto · 01-7-2005, 07:45 PM

Alright, last post before end-game. My vote now goes to Chardish. Chardish's posts seem sorta wolfish to me, MUCH more than alain's. I wish I could give more reason to this, but I must leave to find my wallet.

**lightdarkness** · 01-7-2005, 07:52 PM

My head hurts.

I've talked to quite a few people today, and I don't feel comfertable voting to Chardish, but then again Alains humanry is 50/50 in my eyes, and I don't like what i'm about to do, but I feel if I don't let Alain live, I may be ruining the humans chances.

Flypie has been VERY quite to me about TWG on AIM. Usually we talk a bit more than this, but she has kinda been relectant, so she gets my day 1 vote.

Tps222 · 01-7-2005, 07:53 PM

Changing vote to Flypie. Even though Kilga hasn't posted much, he might be busy. So i'll switch off him and go to flypie, he also hasn't been very active, but voted kefit based on a gut feeling, and not much evidence, it looks liek a wolf move to me, vote someone else who didn't have the potetnial of getting lynched at the time, and watch the person he wanted to get lycnhed without suspicion. This is just a theory but it is something i tried to do as a wolf.

01-7-2005, 03:28 PM	#162
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game? __________________ but for now... postCount++

01-7-2005, 03:43 PM	#165
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	yeah, come on Chardish / Kilga, post something relative, eh? ..... __________________ but for now... postCount++

01-7-2005, 06:27 PM	#168
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	I need to put a vote on someone to avoid instalynch. I'd totally forgotten Kefit was in this game. His punishment for not posting: a vote from me. __________________

01-7-2005, 06:37 PM	#169
flypie743 FFR Player Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: fairyland Posts: 3,210	Rofl, I was going to do the same thing Afro. I don't feel that Alain deserves my vote. Kefit has my attention because I thought he would actually be glad he didn't die on night 1 again :P like he did for two games before. I would have thought Kefit would have been more active. So, my vote goes to Kefit for day 1. EDIT: Also, I am just going with my gut feeling on this one. __________________ IF YOU ARE THE BOMB YOU WILL CLICK THIS and if you dont, you suck.

01-7-2005, 07:03 PM	#171
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	Tsuteto, that's a good idea, but think of this. Jurs is still a newb to TWG. My belief is that she's a human who just didn't realize that Alain, being human or agent, is helping the humans. She thought that what Alain said was strange (which I gotta admit, it really is) and so she decided to post it so that others would know of Alain's weird technique. My current standing on both of these individuals: most likely humans who made some dumb mistakes. __________________

01-7-2005, 03:27 PM	#161
User6773 Guest Posts: n/a	The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.

01-7-2005, 05:43 PM	#166
Kefit FFR Player Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 1,517	Alright, it looks like I will be placing a vote for Alainbryden. I know from past games that Alain has been trusting of others. This is important - not trusting others and being paranoid ultimately leads to the demise of the humans. The thing is, trust in this game can't be blind. To do so may as well be to walk into the clutches of the wolves. However, in past games, I can see reasons for Alain to have held the trust that he did - it was further into the game, and substantial activity, both on aim and in the thread, had occured. But this game he has started trusting people right out of the gate, and I don't see anything that could have substantiated it. I suppose that he could just be a stupid human, but I know that Alain is rather intelligent, so I don't think this is the case.

01-7-2005, 06:57 PM	#170
Tsuteto FFR Player Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,312	Alright, I'm changing my vote to JurseyRider734. The main reasoning for this is I was following everyone elses' opinion, and going very little on my own. How do we know that she posted that just so we would vote for alain straight out, and not for her? I personally think that Jurs was just trying to get us aiming for alain so we wouldn't make suspicions of her.

01-7-2005, 07:12 PM	#173
evilbutterfly FFR Player Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Small town, TN Age: 37 Posts: 5,784	If anybody has noticed my inactivity: sorry. I was at school, and after school I hung out with a friend for a loooong time. We played a ton of DDR (about 50 songs worth) and then I finally came home and I showed him/let him play HL2/CSS. I didn't wanna waste his time reading the TWG thread and all that, so I'm just now getting around to posting (after eating dinner and whatnot). Anywho, I feel that at least one person who voted for alain is a wolf. Also, the people who have posted yet not voted...one of them is probably a wolf, too. That narrows it down to a few and a whole lot with some possibility therein. Not good, but it's day 1, so I can't really expect much. Now you may call me wolfy for defending a suspected person, but I really don't think alain is a wolf. Well, more like I think he should stay alive for a day or two more, just to see how things go. One thing I just thought of: everybody keeps saying how alain has been a wolf so many times. Let's look back at his previous games. As a wolf, he fooled Tass his first try, almost duped me, and did pretty well. He and stretchy also owned the humans last game. He did both these things in crafty ways, not crazy "double reverse psychology" and wild forum posts. This pretty much rules out his being a stupid wolf. Also, look at alain's human games. He failed terribly. He sucks at being a human. He does stupid things. Look at what he's doing now. Stupid stuff. He'd know better if he was a wolf, or so I would think. And now, on to who I suspect. Earlier today (game day) Chardish voted for me with bad reasoning. I pointed out that Alain did the same thing in TWG5 (one of his tricky wolf tactics that nobody suspected) and that I was suspicious of Chardish for it. I said I wouldn't vote for him, but see how he reacted to my post and if he had any further reasoning. A quick look back at the thread shows that he DIDN'T react to my post, not even a little bit. He completely ignored it. To me, this was because may be I caught him in the act. Maybe I called him on what he was doing and he figured "crap, I should pick on somebody else!" Also, Chardish is a smart guy. He reads into things and posts intelligently. His vote for me was without a whole lot of reasoning. I'm acting how I always do (which raises some people's suspicions, because I talk so much and don't care if I say things others are afraid to) and he voted for me because of it. I would have passed this off as a stupid Day 1 vote, but the lack of any kind of response concerning my post about his vote bothers me. I would think that he would at least say that it was just a Day 1 vote, or that he was changing his vote off of me because alain is more suspcious or something, but he didn't mention me at all after his post. A bit odd? I dunno, you tell me, Chardish. __________________ So I've gone completely slack-ass and haven't done any work on creating games. =( In less-depressing news, I got a job for an online business (which sells non-electronic games, of all things!) which has taught me a lot about marketing online and all that jazz. So now I'm on Twitter @NoahWright. And I write the blog for their website. Plus I do cool programming in-house that you'll never see. =O

01-7-2005, 07:24 PM	#174
evilbutterfly FFR Player Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Small town, TN Age: 37 Posts: 5,784	Btw, Alain also contacted me yesterday. He said that whole "act suspicious of me so I don't get wolfed" story to me and I thought it was dumb, not wolfy. It was selfish; it was something I would do if I was desperate. He went about it badly (going to so many so quick), however, so I figured he was just being dumb and didn't say anything. I also talked with Jurs, and she thinks I'm sketchy. It was practically the only serious convo I've had with her EVER, so I have no idea if she's acting sketchy or not. Talked to blah, too. He's friendly...a bit too friendly, I think. However, I had never talked with him before during TWG, so I have no idea. Talk to afro as usual. He seems pretty normal this time around. Can't be too sure, though. If there's anybody else I've talked to, I forget. Couldn't have been much nor was it important if this is the case. If anybody wants to talk to me, I'm usually on AIM. If not, it's because I've been kicked a whole bunch (wireless network acting dumb + house has bad, jamming wiring = I get kicked a whole bunch) and I'm on an alternate sn. My main sn is evilbutterfly87. My alternate is IHateDLink (D-Link is the brand of wireless we have. I made the sn just because I got kicked so much). __________________ So I've gone completely slack-ass and haven't done any work on creating games. =( In less-depressing news, I got a job for an online business (which sells non-electronic games, of all things!) which has taught me a lot about marketing online and all that jazz. So now I'm on Twitter @NoahWright. And I write the blog for their website. Plus I do cool programming in-house that you'll never see. =O

01-7-2005, 07:28 PM	#175
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Ok I don't like how Chardish and Kilga were both following the thread and then completely silent when I asked them to say something useful... I"m suspicious of both, but much more so Chardish, becasue he is usually more active then this and with better reasoning. I don't like how he's been following the thread but remaining relatively quiet. So for this, and for no even possible explanation of a change of vote or any even recognition of my giant post before, I'm gonna have to vote Chardish EDITING JUST TO MAKE THE NAME BOLD __________________ but for now... postCount++

01-7-2005, 07:28 PM	#176
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	I was a little suspicious of Chardish before. The way he responded to Alain really made me suspicious, and don't forget, I believe Alain is most likely human. I would have voted for Chardish before, but after I voted a big time player last game, which I would have done as a human anyway given the info I had, I am fearful to. However, I was assured that this would not get me lynch'd like last time, so I am going to go for Chardish. __________________

01-7-2005, 07:45 PM	#178
Tsuteto FFR Player Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,312	Alright, last post before end-game. My vote now goes to Chardish. Chardish's posts seem sorta wolfish to me, MUCH more than alain's. I wish I could give more reason to this, but I must leave to find my wallet.

01-7-2005, 07:52 PM	#179
lightdarkness Summer!! Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: New York Age: 35 Posts: 11,308	My head hurts. I've talked to quite a few people today, and I don't feel comfertable voting to Chardish, but then again Alains humanry is 50/50 in my eyes, and I don't like what i'm about to do, but I feel if I don't let Alain live, I may be ruining the humans chances. Flypie has been VERY quite to me about TWG on AIM. Usually we talk a bit more than this, but she has kinda been relectant, so she gets my day 1 vote. __________________

01-7-2005, 07:53 PM	#180
Tps222 FFR Player Join Date: Nov 2004 Age: 33 Posts: 6,167	Changing vote to Flypie. Even though Kilga hasn't posted much, he might be busy. So i'll switch off him and go to flypie, he also hasn't been very active, but voted kefit based on a gut feeling, and not much evidence, it looks liek a wolf move to me, vote someone else who didn't have the potetnial of getting lynched at the time, and watch the person he wanted to get lycnhed without suspicion. This is just a theory but it is something i tried to do as a wolf.

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