TWG CXLII - A Storm of Hard and Boiled [Game Thread]

[XelNya]

Gimmie' a minute

[XelNya]

It's a composition of all his smaller posts like this one

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

dap, xel, where do y'all stand?

Which are littered through the game /not gonna quote them all because time

And this

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

Time for some of my reads.

My reasoning for the lynch and nightkills hasn't changed. I'm going to act and theorize under the assumption that all three were town just to be safe. If I had to choose, though, clown and sunfan were town and round was scum. Something interesting I thought of though is that the vote patterns for last phase should be considered in light of people assuming there's cardflips vs people knowing that there's not. I'll admit that I forgot it was off, and I know I'm not alone. I still believe that clown was a mislynch, but if he wasn't then there might be some bussing going on there, most likely with storn (since I recall him bussing dap in I believe the Pokemon game when dap was 100% inactive).

Dap is a slight town, straddling the line of town-town. He's inquiring and theorizing, revising his reads in light of new or reconsidered information, and though he's missed or going to miss both EODs so far he's been trying hard to get as much out as he can to compensate beforehand. Why I'm weary is still mostly the same, namely that I see nothing that he wouldn't be capable of faking as scum from tone to analysis to votes. Also I notice that he's dropped off a bit this phase in comparison to last in terms of activity, though I think most players have too. If I have to reconsider him I will, but for now I'll work with him being more likely than not town.

Red I'm still pretty sure is town but I'm starting to second guess myself. I have to keep some of my reasoning on this point to myself because if red becomes aware of it then he might start acting differently, and I don't want that to happen as things get closer to MYLO. My original reasoning still stands: he's playing his town meta (commentary, combative, analysis when prompted or when things get down to the wire, not as much concern with impression management), he has the ban history keeping him on a leash, and now that he's got yoshl scrutinizing whatever play he makes so he's more likely to keep silent over being loud.

Rzr is scum. I'm getting some cognitive dissonance saying that because I do like that he's defending himself, and I do understand that he has stuff outside the game affecting him, but his defeatist attitude is concerning. It reminds me of choof when he was TWG Bowser (and scum), though it also reminds me of early Red when he'd get mislynched and get pissed off at everybody else for not reading him correctly. He's not really acknowledging my arguments, early on he gave different reads for the same reasons, and I said already that his read on round was a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Storn is town. Storn is playing as storn does, and his posts come across as being honest and in earnest. I've said already that he tends to be more combative and focused on appearing town when he's scum, whereas here he's more so doing his own thing and dealing with the repercussions of his actions as they come. He's not as concerned with being misread as he would be if he were scum, hence stuff like the vote switching or voicing aloud "I hope I don't get read as scum for this but here goes nothing" kinda stuff.

Tokzic is null leaning scum. He's inactive-ish and his analysis isn't the TWG Mega Man style that you'd expect. I'll have to ISO him again but from memory I don't think he's been waffling or second guessing his reads as much as he does when he's town. I remember in the game where V and James May and I were scum Tokzic was feeling uncertain about his reads and kept changing them/reconsidering things over and over...here not so much.

Xel is town. Reread my responses to bunny if you want more concrete detail as to why. He, like storn, is taking things as they come, and has provided decent analysis and effort. In the more recent half of the phase his activity has dropped off a bit compared to the first, so I'd like to see him keep up the pace rather than be satisfied with getting townread. Going cold is a sign of him being scummy.

Charu is null leaning town. I think he's got WIM w/r/t scumhunting, and I said before that he's playing one half of his role (if he's town...the scumhunting part) and not so much the other (trying to come across as town so as to not get mislynched). He's good at town and good at deceiving us as scum so I'm not sure if I'll ever really move him entirely off of null in a game like this with no cardflips, but for this phase at least I trust him enough to not lynch him.

Yoshl is null, very faintly leaning town. Yoshl I struggle with reading for the same reason as charu: he's good at what he does, regardless of alignment. Aside from his entrance post, which I thought was good (and also interesting [if it wasn't faked] due to him playing the game from a townie mindset prior to getting the call to replace and then keeping that same mindset moving forward), I think he's been focusing more on specific players and viewpoints rather than making broad strokes. I seem to recall yoshl in past games thinking about the game as a whole as much as he does targeting X player or Y team, and when he does it's so that it can inform his overall viewpoint. I'll have to iso him and see if it's just the red blaster and charu interactions that are overshadowing my memories of him.

Bunny is slight scum. I said before that her playing passively, waiting for things and people to come to her rather than actively pursuing them herself, was due to circumstantial stuff like work and school and being sick, but iso'ing her yesterday I saw that her passive play was before she was sick and whatnot too. She would say things like the phase or AMA period was boring or that the rest of us weren't living up to her expectations and then stayed in that defeatist sort of mindset. It may be because this is the worst forum game she's played (in her words), and thus she's not that interested in trying to figure things out anymore. Her case on Xel wasn't bad considering he's a stranger to her but she never really tried to push it other than saying that we should look at it (meaning she never updated it to fit his later posts or EOD behavior) or that we were ignoring it. I was hoping to get a more solid read on her through her response to my dissection of her Xel case but she hasn't come back since.

It's how detailed this post is that sells me. This man is looking for scum here. He read through some people trying to sell them either way

[Charu]

See, the detailed part is what brings him to being so neutral. He's detailed and offers scenarios for one person.

That's like... well... it's not really giving a stance. It's more like offering things for the town to think about. That's also something Plop does every time, so it's like...

*shrug*

I was kind of hoping you would show something different that I didn't see. Dang it, Xel.

[storn42]

btw, can we get reads from everyone just so we know where everyone stands atm? just some quick ones doesn't even have to explained. i just feel like it would be helpful rn

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by storn42

btw, can we get reads from everyone just so we know where everyone stands atm? just some quick ones doesn't even have to explained. i just feel like it would be helpful rn

..

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

Town: Storn, xel, red
More likely than not town: Charu, dap
Scum: Tokzic

that's not exactly what I was driving at

there's no way storn is a PR and got a red check on tokzic

otherwise he'd have been driving us towards that lynch from the beginning, not asking us for our reads

[storn42]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

that's not exactly what I was driving at

there's no way storn is a PR and got a red check on tokzic

otherwise he'd have been driving us towards that lynch from the beginning, not asking us for our reads

that is also correct. i just have a really good read on this game right now. and if we lynch tokzic we win.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by storn42

that is also correct. i just have a really good read on this game right now. and if we lynch tokzic we win.

I don't buy it unless you're a PR

which you're not

your confidence sounds like you're leading a mislynch which ends the game

[Tokzic]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

Town: Storn, xel, red
More likely than not town: Charu, dap
Scum: Tokzic

Those are some pretty cool reads for a Plop Charu universe.

[DaBackpack]

oh wait, it doesn't really matter though

was thinking that a wolf would want to pull off that kind of gambit if they were close to achieving parity, but we're at 7 now

if hypothetically storn was leaning towards a mislynch to get town at 3v3, there's still a vigi out there that could potentially bring it down to 2v2

[DaBackpack]

I'm stuck because there's no real "factual evidence" in this game besides the deaths in the night

everything else is speculatory

and there's a million different universes for what's going on

[DaBackpack]

it's hard to find relational reads since I'm not sure i have any strong convictions anymore

[DaBackpack]

Wait holy fuck lmfao

[DaBackpack]

Charu sorry man I misunderstood you

[DaBackpack]

So there's only 1 wolf left, I think

[DaBackpack]

sunfan and rzr are wolves and there's one left

[DaBackpack]

this suddenly became possible

[DaBackpack]

the last wolf is red blaster or tokzic I think

[DaBackpack]

Wait a second.

I think it's time for one person to claim

[DaBackpack]

I -think- this person's power is effectively useless now