TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud - Page 8

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 07:24 PM

So even if your plan goes off completely as planned... it would really only work days 2 or 3. By night 4, there aren't enough people to have it work properly and/or chances of guarding a wolf are much higher.

AND... you'd pretty much be guarenteeing that we WOULDN'T get a guard. Which is dumb. We WANT guards. I'd rather keep the shot of a guard alive than keeping 2-3 people as safe from attacks. Keeping them safe doesn't mean the wolves won't just kill someone else.

No kill + guard > Kill of a weak player

**Kilgamayan** · 08-9-2006, 07:25 PM

iggy is being replaced by Stoic because he can't commit to the rest of the game.

blahblah18 · 08-9-2006, 07:25 PM

during nights 2 and 3 the chance of a guard is wicked low.. i'd rather keep all oru strongest palyers until day 4... like you said yourself, look at the win % when yo ureach day 4... let's eschew goign for guards when its really unlikely... this is a perfect short term strat

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 07:27 PM

Tasselfoot, SOMEONE is going to die. This plan makes it unlikely that someone seen to the majority as important is the one to die.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 07:35 PM

Omega, please stop using my full username. Tass if fine.

And the goal is that someone DOESN'T die. Odds may not be THAT high, but I'd rather some odds than no odds.

Afrobean · 08-9-2006, 07:43 PM

Guys, this is kinda stupid, in my opinion.

If the guards are split between a few top players, I'd say the wolves would still go for it anyway

Why? I'll explain my thought line here.

Ok, so a wolf won't wolf himself because the odds of success are so low, right? Well in this instance, the odds of failure are equally low. Why even worry about guards being split like that, especially when the wolves can't even know for sure WHO EXACTLY the votes are split between.

I'd say our best bet is really to stick to individual votes for who we think may be wolfed and simply hope that they succeed. Realistically, the votes are going to be split in a way which is almost 100% representative of who the humans don't want wolfed anyway. It's not like each human is voting for someone and every player has 1 vote for guarding on them. There will be many players with no votes and a few with many votes. And all of this is achieved naturally without any direction from an external source.

In short: I think that someone, even a 100% human, telling me WHO to guard is retarded. Hell, if cypher goes along with it, I'll tell you right now I'll still vote to guard the person I want to guard and not whatever he says.

EDIT: had a question mark in an awkard place.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 07:51 PM

You said similar things to what I said Afro...

blahblah18 · 08-9-2006, 07:52 PM

Afro and Tass are agreeing... we gotta lynch them both... and they're both idiots

Afrobean · 08-9-2006, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tass

You said similar things to what I said Afro...

what's your point?

Quote:

Originally Posted by blah

Afro and Tass are agreeing... we gotta lynch them both... and they're both idiots

blah wasn't I agreeing with you early in the day? BETTER LYNCH YOU TOO

Oh and I bet I've aggreed with pretty much everyone at some point (sans Kefit, I guess... he posted like once total and I don't even remember what it was) SO LET'S LYNCH EVERYONE

ps ap lol

pps when does day end?

**aperson** · 08-9-2006, 08:00 PM

I'm going to have to go with blah right now.

There's just something funny about the way you've been acting. Really, your motives this whole game have been quite strange. Your hardon for self-preservation through the 'top 3 guard' strategy coupled with your really instigatory posts against Tasselfoot just don't add up to me. It seems like you have something behind the curtains that you aren't telling us a bout.

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 09:14 PM

Where are:

FoJaR
Tps
Wilkin
Cypher

At this time?

Tps222 · 08-9-2006, 10:50 PM

Birthday.

BB Thursday.

**FishFishRevolution** · 08-9-2006, 11:07 PM

I'm not going to lie, I don't have the time or patience right now to determine complete wolfishness for a well-rounded vote today. All I can say is I think there is at least one wolf between Tass, ap, and blah. Vote subject to change if I look through the thread again before I go to work tomorrow.

**FishFishRevolution** · 08-9-2006, 11:08 PM

THIS JUST IN: I get out of work tomorrow at 8 Eastern, so I should be online for the last 15 minutes or so of the day. I may re-vote/swing vote then.

StoicRoivaS · 08-9-2006, 11:54 PM

I'm taking over Iggy's spot for those of you that missed Kilga's post.

A few things:

1)
I completely agree with Iggy's original idea of pooling guard votes at cypher, but disagree with split/pooled voting between a few people via cypher sending specific suggestions back to each player. As mentioned earlier, this gives the wolves a chance to take away our best human (and thusly wolf) finding tool; the successful guard. Ap says it best here:

Quote:

Originally Posted by aperson

It might not be very useful at all (and imo, probably isn't), but at least it's something. Really look at the risk versus reward... There's zero risk and possibly some reward that could come out of it.

Sure the wolves may (aka probably will) lie, but in the end it's still information that a human has that the wolves don't, and given that there are more humans and less wolves, it's at least over 50% accurate, assuming no human finds a reason to lie.

2)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Um

I would be REALLY hesitant to trusting anyone guarded basically at all.

Well, sure, trust them as much as you'd trust anyone in this game saying "I'm human" but don't trust them any more than that.

I don't see why afro is so against trusting a guarded person. If it were Tass and it were night one, I'd agree wholeheartedly. The idea came to me as well. With his rep and the number of guard votes he got (from people who will and will not admit it), it's certainly worth the risk, but on any other night, with any other person, the idea is near suicide for the wolves unless we hand feed them plenty of votes onto one of their own, in which case it would be quite possible. This is one of my main points against splitting votes between a few players via cypher (see above), but if we can all see that to be a bad idea, it won't happen. So now that we've established that we're not discussing a guarded Tass on N1, and we're not spoon feeding the wolves a brilliant idea, why exactly would you not trust a guarded person, afro? A guarded person is the best thing we have for finding humans (and thusly wolves) save for the bane and vigi, obviously. I cannot think of a single other situation in which I'd trust someone more. Conversations are faked and screenshots are doctored (*cough* TWG15 *cough*), but actions are real. The wolves would be taking an insane chance to pull a stunt like that. Unless I'm missing something important, you should explain your idea a little more, because as I see it, it's the best thing we have right now.

3)
A vote chart, more for myself than anyone else, but I typed it up into my notepad file on the game, so it's just as easy to paste here for everyone else:

Tasselfoot (2) - Fish, Blah
Tps222 (1) - FoJar
blahblah18 (2) - Shash, Ap
aperson (2) - Kefit, Afro
Afrobean (1) - Stoic

So, for now, placeholder goes to Afro simply because I think a guarded person is the best thing we have to a certainty, save bane/vigi, of course, and I trust that human Afro would be smart enough to see this. Unless I get on when I wake up tomorrow, 4pm, which I'll try to, I probably won't be back within the day. Let me know if I messed up any votes. Peace.

Edit: Didn't include my own vote on the chart, ROFL.

Afrobean · 08-10-2006, 12:06 AM

Quote:

I think a guarded person is the best thing we have to a certainty

because something which is almost certain is worth risking the game over when we already have two 100% sure things

Anyway, you seem to have missed the point I was trying to make. So I'll try one more time.

Just because someone is guarded does not mean they are necessarily human. They definitely do not deserve to be accepted into an alliance, or treated as a 100% human. Their hightened chance of human is worth something, but it is not worthy of them being immune to being lynched.

Basically: take all guardings with a grain of salt.

also:

Quote:

we hand feed them plenty of votes onto one of their own, in which case it would be quite possible

so basically, as long as we don't vote to guard an upper tier player, we'll be fine, right? dur

Quote:

screenshots are doctored

unless I'm mistaken, that's cheating rofl

Quote:

it's the best thing we have right now.

no, the best thing we have is the solid bane/vigi alliance

StoicRoivaS · 08-10-2006, 12:33 AM

I obviously would not condone telling them who the vigi is, there is no reason they need to know, but if we have one person "confirmed" human through guarding, and they want to take the suggestions of the already formed alliance as to who to vote because they're "in" then I don't see where we should stop them. With no seer it means very little when it comes to where accusations for votes come from, but if the "confirmed" person is blatantly voting to save someone on the chopping block, you have a problem, otherwise, where's the harm in trusting them? The bane is out, and there's no reason to divulge the identity of the vigi so what else is there? Lying about the guard vote, big whoop.

Yes, screenshotting anything is illegal as far as I understand the rules, and I'm sure altering it doesn't help your case, that wasn't my point at all. My point was that digital things lie, or at least always have the potential to lie. You can reset clocks, edit photos, cut/copy/paste text, it's all subjective, that was my point, and when a game such as TWG is won and lost based ENTIRELY on the pm's each player sends to the host, it's safe to say that one's actions carry more weight than any digital evidence. That was my point.

Quote:

we hand feed them plenty of votes onto one of their own, in which case it would be quite possible

so basically, as long as we don't vote to guard an upper tier player, we'll be fine, right? dur

No, as long as we don't tell them that we're placing a large portion of the total guard votes onto someone they know is a wolf, upper tier or not, we'll "be fine". Again, I know you're smarter than this. My vote stands stronger than before.

GuidoHunter · 08-10-2006, 12:50 AM

Doctored screenshots are fine. Just as you aren't to trust every AIM convo 100%, you shouldn't trust screenshots, either. Of course, anyone who would resort to posting a screenshot probably has doctored it already, and considering we haven't had a single screenshot posted in ages, it's not much of a problem.

However, screenshotting a PM from the host, whether doctored or not, is strictly illegal.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

**Tasselfoot** · 08-10-2006, 01:03 AM

Hey Andy... posting ANY screenshot AT ALL is against the rules. Way to represent TWC, bro. Now enough discussion of cheating, seriously. I got his point right from the start... no sense in attacking it for stupid reasons that are clearly not his intention, Afro.

CypherToorima · 08-10-2006, 01:58 AM

Sorry I haven't posted lately, it was my bro's birthday yesterday, and today we went out to eat, and I have band everyday from 5 to 9 till the weekend (and subsequently the start of school).

Anyways, I haven't been able to read too much from the thread, but here's what I got.

Afro seems human because he seems wolfy. I know, not the greatest logic, but that's how I know afro.

but on the opposite end of the spectrum, tps seems wolfy because he seems human. Not the greatest logic still, but if you look at last game, he was generally accepted as human, but he wasn't. Also, I thought we had gotten somewhat close that game, and hoped that this game we could get on AIM and talk about ideas and stuff, but he has yet to I.M.(unless he did and I forgot, but I doubt it) this game, and I really thought he would.

Sorry again for not being super-active, but don't think I haven't read through the thread a few times through, because I have.

08-9-2006, 07:24 PM	#141
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud So even if your plan goes off completely as planned... it would really only work days 2 or 3. By night 4, there aren't enough people to have it work properly and/or chances of guarding a wolf are much higher. AND... you'd pretty much be guarenteeing that we WOULDN'T get a guard. Which is dumb. We WANT guards. I'd rather keep the shot of a guard alive than keeping 2-3 people as safe from attacks. Keeping them safe doesn't mean the wolves won't just kill someone else. No kill + guard > Kill of a weak player __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 07:25 PM	#142
Kilgamayan Super Scooter Happy Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Location, Location. Age: 39 Posts: 6,583	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud iggy is being replaced by Stoic because he can't commit to the rest of the game. __________________ I watched clouds awobbly from the floor o' that kayak. Souls cross ages like clouds cross skies, an' tho' a cloud's shape nor hue nor size don't stay the same, it's still a cloud an' so is a soul. Who can say where the cloud's blowed from or who the soul'll be 'morrow? Only Sonmi the east an' the west an' the compass an' the atlas, yay, only the atlas o' clouds.

08-9-2006, 07:25 PM	#143
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud during nights 2 and 3 the chance of a guard is wicked low.. i'd rather keep all oru strongest palyers until day 4... like you said yourself, look at the win % when yo ureach day 4... let's eschew goign for guards when its really unlikely... this is a perfect short term strat __________________ but for now... postCount++

08-9-2006, 07:27 PM	#144
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Tasselfoot, SOMEONE is going to die. This plan makes it unlikely that someone seen to the majority as important is the one to die.

08-9-2006, 07:35 PM	#145
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Omega, please stop using my full username. Tass if fine. And the goal is that someone DOESN'T die. Odds may not be THAT high, but I'd rather some odds than no odds. __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 07:43 PM	#146
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Guys, this is kinda stupid, in my opinion. If the guards are split between a few top players, I'd say the wolves would still go for it anyway Why? I'll explain my thought line here. Ok, so a wolf won't wolf himself because the odds of success are so low, right? Well in this instance, the odds of failure are equally low. Why even worry about guards being split like that, especially when the wolves can't even know for sure WHO EXACTLY the votes are split between. I'd say our best bet is really to stick to individual votes for who we think may be wolfed and simply hope that they succeed. Realistically, the votes are going to be split in a way which is almost 100% representative of who the humans don't want wolfed anyway. It's not like each human is voting for someone and every player has 1 vote for guarding on them. There will be many players with no votes and a few with many votes. And all of this is achieved naturally without any direction from an external source. In short: I think that someone, even a 100% human, telling me WHO to guard is retarded. Hell, if cypher goes along with it, I'll tell you right now I'll still vote to guard the person I want to guard and not whatever he says. EDIT: had a question mark in an awkard place. __________________

08-9-2006, 07:51 PM	#147
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud You said similar things to what I said Afro... __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 07:52 PM	#148
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Afro and Tass are agreeing... we gotta lynch them both... and they're both idiots __________________ but for now... postCount++

08-9-2006, 08:00 PM	#150
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I'm going to have to go with blah right now. There's just something funny about the way you've been acting. Really, your motives this whole game have been quite strange. Your hardon for self-preservation through the 'top 3 guard' strategy coupled with your really instigatory posts against Tasselfoot just don't add up to me. It seems like you have something behind the curtains that you aren't telling us a bout. __________________

08-9-2006, 09:14 PM	#151
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Where are: FoJaR Tps Wilkin Cypher At this time?

08-9-2006, 10:50 PM	#152
Tps222 FFR Player Join Date: Nov 2004 Age: 33 Posts: 6,167	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Birthday. BB Thursday.

08-9-2006, 11:07 PM	#153
FishFishRevolution GotR Creator Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Vi sitter här i venten Current Band: The National Age: 36 Posts: 7,251	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I'm not going to lie, I don't have the time or patience right now to determine complete wolfishness for a well-rounded vote today. All I can say is I think there is at least one wolf between Tass, ap, and blah. Vote subject to change if I look through the thread again before I go to work tomorrow. __________________

08-9-2006, 11:08 PM	#154
FishFishRevolution GotR Creator Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Vi sitter här i venten Current Band: The National Age: 36 Posts: 7,251	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud THIS JUST IN: I get out of work tomorrow at 8 Eastern, so I should be online for the last 15 minutes or so of the day. I may re-vote/swing vote then. __________________

08-10-2006, 01:03 AM	#159
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Hey Andy... posting ANY screenshot AT ALL is against the rules. Way to represent TWC, bro. Now enough discussion of cheating, seriously. I got his point right from the start... no sense in attacking it for stupid reasons that are clearly not his intention, Afro. __________________ RIP

08-10-2006, 01:58 AM	#160
CypherToorima Boss of all bosses Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Phone Home! Age: 35 Posts: 2,452	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Sorry I haven't posted lately, it was my bro's birthday yesterday, and today we went out to eat, and I have band everyday from 5 to 9 till the weekend (and subsequently the start of school). Anyways, I haven't been able to read too much from the thread, but here's what I got. Afro seems human because he seems wolfy. I know, not the greatest logic, but that's how I know afro. but on the opposite end of the spectrum, tps seems wolfy because he seems human. Not the greatest logic still, but if you look at last game, he was generally accepted as human, but he wasn't. Also, I thought we had gotten somewhat close that game, and hoped that this game we could get on AIM and talk about ideas and stuff, but he has yet to I.M.(unless he did and I forgot, but I doubt it) this game, and I really thought he would. Sorry again for not being super-active, but don't think I haven't read through the thread a few times through, because I have. __________________ I'm a figantic gaggot

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)