TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4

[alainbryden]

Well I have said everything I can say and have pointed out everything you need to know the truth. If you still come to the conclusion that I am a wolf then you have failed at reasoning, and you have made your first mistaken lynching. I am done for the day.

[lightdarkness]

Originally Posted by alainbryden

Lightdarkness, you are the idiot. Just because you automatically trust the wrong people, and find yourself used easily, meanwhile overcompensating by being a relentless hardass about anyone else that tries to talk to you shows that you obviously don't have what it takes to determine whether someone is trustworthy. So yes, it is impossible for you to make an alliance, but not for other people.

Uhh, i'm the smart one and am not trusting anyone in this game.

You go up to Jursey, without talking to her for more than 2 minutes, and put an enormous amount of trust in her.

The only way to do that, is to be a seer, or a wolf. So that is why I choose you, Alainbryden

First of all, your blame for me being a wolf is senseless. You accuse me of bandwagon formation, despite the fact that a large piece of evidence had been recently levied against you. Voting after something like that isn't bandwagoning - it's making a rational decision based on facts and evidence.

The principle evidence against you was your claim to Jursey that you trusted her. The concept of an alliance would be alluring to most players, and when someone offers their trust, it's hard to turn it down. In other words, your whole campaign with Jursey seems like "fishing" for a newbie who will be your pawn and stay off your back.

You've offered no reason for your simultaneous absolute trust of Jursey with your absolute distrust of others (namely, me.) You've offered no explanation for your erratic, unpredictable actions, other than the bizzare pretense that somehow this is all an elaborate scheme to draw out wolves. You've offered no defense of your behavior other than a stream of incomprehensible profanties touched by fire-and-brimstone warnings of what's to come if we proceed. You've offered no apology for trying to confuse and manipulate your fellow players to no end, randomly pegging others as wolves and forming concrete conclusions from insubstantial evidence.

Therefore you've offered no recourse but to vote for you.

[lightdarkness]

I would just like to say, that Chardish is the best writter i've ever seen, and he should write books for a living, because that post was soooooooooo intelligent.

And I would just like to remind people that there is no Seer in this game, I didn't want any confusion from this message of mine:

Originally Posted by LD

The only way to do that, is to be a seer, or a wolf. So that is why I choose you, Alainbryden

EDIT: Alain, I just saw the comments you have on your little "voting guide", and I find it quite hillarious that after 36 hours, you are sure of 2 wolves, and one other, and calling many people idiots.

Even if there is a small chance you are a human, you aren't a team player.

EDIT V2: He can't even spell idiot, what an idiot.

[Squeek]

About 8 hours to go.

No name-calling, OK? This is the most intelligent forum section we have and, as such, should contain the most intelligent posts on the site.

I'm reconsidering the 36-hour days, but I don't know what to do otherwise. I still want 10:00 - 10:00, but if I do that, I have to wait 24 hours during the Night shift before I update the thread. I know as for this weekend, I could make an exception and hopefully have it updated at midnight, since the 48 hours would end Sunday night at 12.

I apologize for the inconvenience, but there's no way you'll be waking me up before noon. It just will not happen. Seeing as this is the case, I would LIKE to have the thread updated right after most of the users get home from school, but I have to incorporate the west coast as well, which makes this all the more challenging. If anybody has a viable solution for me, please AIM me with it. My AIM, as always, is "Stop Drop And Di" with no "e".

~Squeek

[blahblah18]

Ok I"m just gonna make this little post and then go back to thinking.

Of all the people so far in day 1, Alain looks the most suspicious, but I don't know if I see anything that means he's a wolf.
I do agree with Chardish that it seems pretty bad about his trusting Jurs, but that's about it. What LD said was completely ludicrous and basicalyl a flat-out lie... worst reasoning for a vote I've ever seen.

LD paraphrased:
Only a wolf would try making alliances in a game with no seer

LD Last Game:
Hi Tass, I'm LD. How about we start the beginning of an alliance to try and spread it to other humans?

eh?

Now knowing from past experience what possibly offering an alternative can bring, I'm going to preface this by saying that to convict someone for merely defending them is as stupid as when Alain said anyone that votes him is a wolf. I'm not saying he is or isn't, I'm just trying to offer other possible scenarios so we have an idea of maybe the reasons behind these actions.

Either
A) Alain's an idiotic wolf and thought he could get the n00bs on his team by being like "i trust you lets start an alliance" .. if this was the case, I would expect MAC or nForcer to step forwards and say "yes someone contacated me too! and it was really similar to that!"
that hasn't happened... makes me think no wolf plot is going to be done as a solo..
B) Alain's an idiotic / new human who for some reason got it into his head that he would be a prime wolf target and then the only way to stay alive was through the hope that the wolves would think we'd do their job for them. While personally I think its a rather dumb strategy, it seems slightly more logical then choice A.

Possible explanations for Alain's convo with Jurs:
A) Alain's a wolf and wanted to build an "alliance" in the same way Tass and Q did with Cenright and TnyHwk back in TWG III (for you people that wern't there, tass and q were wolves and convinced the humans cen and tny to join an alliance with them). Again, if this is the case
1. I would expect other pople to come forward with seemingly similar situations or suspicions
2. Alain wouldn't have gotten as righteous with anger as he has, because there would normally be his teammates then to say "STFU"

B) Alain's a human and somewhat stupidly goes about trying to start the beginnings of an alliance. He chooses someone that he has talked to a lot outside of TWG and thus figures he'd be able to tell if she's acting off or anything. He feels betrayed when she posts the convo and he becomes indignant.
Sidenote to B: remember that no one ever questioned Tasselfoot when he woudl go to someone and say for some reason that he trusts them based merely on the posts made so far , as I"ve said before, refer to TWG II when he immediatelyt came out saying he knew myself whorli and banditcom were humans.

C) Alain wants to see if Jursey is a wolf and thus wants to see if she'll blindly / readily enter into an alliance with him with little to no basis for it. It woudl be a test to see if the wovles wanted to extend their power the other way.
Personally I don't believe this is the most logical option but its feasible so I listed it.

My guess here is that it very well could be choice B because Alain knows that Tass isn't in the game and feels that he should somehow take his place and gather people together.. whether he did a horrible job of that or not is irrelevant, but this is definately a possibility for some of his actions.

In conclusion, no one's really said anything that damning yet besides Alain and LD's reason for voting Alain, but I just wanted to show everyone how the way LD / Chardish / the others are painting the facts completely glosses over the other side of the coin.

[lightdarkness]

Wow, you paraphrased(sp) too much.

I said it's impossible to completely trust someone in a game with no seer, not to make alliances.

Also, us bringing in tass was different circumstances, which can't be applied here. I feel my reasoning is completely justified.

[blahblah18]

All I know is, wolves would like information suppressed human's would like information shared.. I believe, and as Tass has always siad, to win, the humans have to at least try to form some alliance.. whether or not Alain was moronic in his attempt, I refuse to believe that the attempt alone is damning evidence

[blahblah18]

Because I don't want to put an edit in my main post, I"l lsay here that the tass Q connection was in TWG FOUR, not TWG three..

[Lupin_the_3rd]

A) Alain's an idiotic wolf and thought he could get the n00bs on his team by being like "i trust you lets start an alliance" .. if this was the case, I would expect MAC or nForcer to step forwards and say "yes someone contacated me too! and it was really similar to that!"

I'm not sure who first stated the idea of getting Alain getting all the 'noobs', but Jursey and I are the only noobs that I am aware of that he has decided to trust. Whereas he contacted a good friend of his, Jursey, I, being somewhat unfamiliar, came to him. The way he was acting in the beginning of the game made me suspect that he was a human. Basically, my greeting for him was, 'what the hell are you doing, and why?' Ever since he explained it to me, I figured that an alliance could work, but only if we had some level of trust for each other. Admittedly, I have been intimidated by people contacting me (very similar to jursey), but I decided that I would give trust a shot, for even if he was a wolf, his promotion of sharing of information and lack of encouragement for who to vote for would not be detrimental to the humans as a whole, and would help me to get a better perspective on the game.

[Afrobean]

It seems to me that Alain has yet to be a normal human. I'd say that odds are against him being a wolf again. If I were to guess based on probability of things, I'd say that Alain is most likely a normal human this game. Yes, his actions are suspicious, but I wouldn't define them as wolfy. In other words, we should keep an eye on him, but not lynch him right away.

Either way, if Alain is human or agent, I'd think that the people he lists as human can be trusted as human. My reasoning is this:
If Alain is human:
He would be worthy of trust. Anyone he belives is human, is probably accurate.

If he's a wolf:
He's handing us a decent alliance. A wolf most likely isn't going to put his other wolves in the alliance, just in case they get figured out. Because of this, I'd say it's safe to say that most, if not all, of those Alain trusts as human really are human.

[lightdarkness]

I'll fill in for Chardish here:

THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.


Too add on to your thoughts, I was thinking also about his thoughts on people and if he is a wolf or human, but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.

[Lupin_the_3rd]

but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.

you seem awful sure of yourself with that whole 'lynching alain' thing...

[lightdarkness]

Originally Posted by Lupin_the_3rd

you seem awful sure of yourself with that whole 'lynching alain' thing...

During today, I did think he was going to be lynched, but someone has brought to my attention that it can be reversed.

In any case, the psychic is currently important as to validizing alains claims.

[Afrobean]

THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.

Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:

Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.

The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)

What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.

I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.

[blahblah18]

no Afro, you're wrong.. considering he already rolled a 6 and then a 1, his chance of getting a 4 now is still 1/6

its like if i flip a coin a million times and they all come heads... even though the probability of flippipng a coin 1 million and 1 times is
1 / 2^1,000,001
its still just a 1 / 2 that the million and first one will be heads.

[Afrobean]

Yes, you're right that his previous roles has nothing to do with his role this game, but listen to this. Imagine that we're having this argument before Alain has even joined one TWG. What would you say would be the probability of him being a wolf two times and a human special job? The chances of that are not that good. Now, all I'm saying that the probability of him being a wolf three times is even more unlikely.

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:

Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.

The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)

What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.

I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.

I believe that the probability of getting the numbers in that order is 1/216, and getting those three numbers alone is 1/18. Each one individually, though, has a probability of 1/6.

But let me justify the other side a little: say you could flip a coin 50 times, and get heads each time. On your 51st, the chance of getting tails would still be 50%. That means that anyone could be a wolf everytime they play. Although the chances of that happening are astronomical, the odds of its frequency will never change as long as the amounts of what roles people can get, and number of players, does not.

Alain is being more unjustified that any of us. He changed his stance from coming up with strategies to "lure out wolves" to defending himself. What I saw as really setting him off, though, was Jursey's post of the conversation. Now, I'm having this thought in the back of my head that if it was anyone besides Jursey, he wouldn't have gotten so defensive and/or ticked off.

blahblah (12 posts back) may be getting at something about alain and his possible role, but I'm not sure whether to be suspicious, or to heed his thoughts.

[Squeek]

Here's the odds of any person being a role they were before:

Agent - 4/18. = 22%
Psychic - 1/18. = 5%
Guardian - 1/18. = 5%
Mason - 4/18. = 22%

Probability and statistics go out the window when it doesn't matter what the previous numbers gave. It's only good for when you remove something from the equation. Such as, when there are 3 red marbles and three blue marbles and you take one out.

Random.org is the best random number generator in the world. They have formulated an algorithm that nobody else has topped. It is UNREFUTABLY the greatest random generator to date.

Carry on.

~Squeek

PS - No information should be taken seriously in anything I post. I post as a neutral party favoring no role.

[Kilgamayan]

LOL MATH SIDE TRACK ok folks here we go

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The probability of getting one given number three times in a row while rolling one standard die is 1/216.

Break it down easily:

We'll use 3 as an example. The probability of rolling a 3 in one roll of a six-sided die is 1/6, as there are, obivously, 6 total possibilities and only one correct one.

Now, you roll the die a second time. Again, the odds of getting a 3 on that roll are 1/6.

However, combine the first two rolls' possibilities. For each one individual result for the first roll, there are six possible results after the second roll. In 3's case, that would be (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), and (3,6). Each of the first six possibilities has six additional possibilities attached to it. 6 times 6 is 36.

For the third roll, the same concept applies. Each of the 36 initial possibilities (produced by the first two rolls) has 6 new possibilities attached to it from the third roll. In the end, you have a number of different possible outcomes equal to 36x6, which is 216.

If anyone wants, I can write every single one out, but I doubt we want to see that.

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On a TWG-related note, CStarFlare was a wolf in three consecutive games over at BMS. Never have the mentality of "oh he was a wolf last game he has to be human this game".