08-20-2018, 07:42 PM | #1541 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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08-20-2018, 07:43 PM | #1542 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
the existence of day woflchat makes things a little difficult but I think wolves wouldn't openly... communicate like that in the thread
there might be that kind of touch-and-go in a game without daychat but there's no reason to leave unnecessary evidence like that behind in this game thread |
08-20-2018, 07:44 PM | #1543 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Okay, I'm basically going to just be posting direct reactions to the whole day basically.
My basic leans are: Xiz, Cel, DBP, Sun, inD - town WC, Freezin - null FG, Blind, TPS - Wolfy But these reads feel kind of shitty. They're more or less in likelihood of individual anti-town (e.g. someone wolfy is more likely to be a wolf than null, and null than town), but it's still largely just behavioral, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a wolf in my town group. But vacillating aside, that's where I'm at. I'll be making a lot of posts all in a row. Regarding yesterday, I haven't really seen a lot of discussion regarding possible distributions. Only one NK makes it less likely that there's a SK, but obviously not impossible--a blocked kill could be a thing. At this stage, there's still too little info to piece together what the actual enemy state is, but this is something that should be considered as more information becomes available. |
08-20-2018, 07:44 PM | #1544 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I know this reasoning led to the Gradiant mislynch but I still believe it
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08-20-2018, 07:45 PM | #1545 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Thoughts on the lynch and the night kill.
The end of the day was, as it often is, a mess. Ironically, the three players that formed the final wagons (multiple votes) were probably my three most town-cleared at the time. That's partially due to my own biases—I tend to town read “towny”/game-active players on D1—but it's weird to me that people immediately moved toward those players. Admittedly, activity invites examination, and therefore suspicion, but that was a weird direction to go. I was planning a big case against Syhto. Guess not. While Syhto is obviously cleared now, I still find it weird how little engagement there was on the topic—even if people were town-reading, I feel like there should have been more to it. |
08-20-2018, 07:45 PM | #1546 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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08-20-2018, 07:45 PM | #1547 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
This is how I see it honestly. Having played a wolf in the previous game, our strategy had very much been “kill a potential killing role, stay away from the innocent child who is likely to be guarded.” While not necessarily relevant here, people seem strangely reluctant to consider that scum might NK strategically rather than simply target the most immediately appealing target, which is necessarily fraught with complications.
*** So, the day largely starts with a lot of initial heat toward Sun Fan. See Freezin in 1242, Celirra in 1246. In the same period, Funnygurl defended Sun several times. None of these reactions are inherently problematic—Sun was at risk of lynch, so suspicion, defense, and general discussion are expected. *** Xiz is fairly active early on, and his play is definitely more game-sided. Not that there's no off topic or joke material, but it's much more of an engaged Xiz. Given my experiences with him last game, I know he's capable of faking that, but it still feels like a tonal departure, so I lean slightly town on his early day. Of course, the other stuff came shortly thereafter, but I liked the early “serious” blitz. It felt real. |
08-20-2018, 07:46 PM | #1548 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Quote:
My guess is that after Sun weakened on Syhto, I listed them as my leading wolf candidate in my short roster run. That made Sun say that they couldn't see w/w, and then shortly thereafter voted me. That suggests to me that the switch away from Syhto was probably legitimate—either Sun was still weakly wolf-reading both of us, or was wolf-reading me, and my accusation cemented their interpretation of Syhto. Sun voted me shortly thereafter. The initial post actually set off alarm bells because Sun used a weird impromptu nickname for me, and we had interacted a fair bit during the prior game (Sun was hosting, so I asked a fair number of questions on Discord). But the vote on me shored up their overall profile by at least generating a post-to-post level of consistency. That clashes with the lack of internal consistency above though. |
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08-20-2018, 07:47 PM | #1549 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Quote:
The problem with an inconsistency like this is that it's certainly something a wolf might do; make a convenient case, then retract it when it stops being convenient. But because a wolf-case is always manufactured, how they get in and out of it can be lost along the way. But at the same time, inconsistency isn't solely a wolf failing, particularly in a game where gut reads and general intuition plays a large role. It can be difficult to fully explain how you feel sometimes (although I think it's good practice to at least try). So while I would hold that lynch all liars isn't necessarily bad advice, it should apply to clear, definitive lies, and less so to something like this. I kind of fall in the middle on this; I think it should be a point against Sun, but not a huge one. |
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08-20-2018, 07:47 PM | #1550 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Precarious how the fuck are you making these long posts so fast?
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08-20-2018, 07:48 PM | #1551 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
People get upset playing this game, and I'd hope that (absent truly cruel personal attacks) we can all look past someone getting upset, particularly if there's an irl component. As far as I'm concerned, you have nothing to apologize for.
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08-20-2018, 07:48 PM | #1552 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
It's honestly alarming that you're producing so much content so rapidly
it feels premeditated |
08-20-2018, 07:49 PM | #1553 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Quote:
There are more coming, obviously. |
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08-20-2018, 07:50 PM | #1554 | ||
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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*** Quote:
On the other hand, there's a fair amount of OMGUS involved, as two of the three Gradiant voters were also on his list. |
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08-20-2018, 07:51 PM | #1555 | ||
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Quote:
*** Quote:
*** And of course this is not an actual defense. Past ain't prologue. Particularly given your own skepticism toward the other suspects. Shouldn't you be telling DBP to look elsewhere altogether, rather than “lynch them first”? |
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08-20-2018, 07:53 PM | #1556 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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08-20-2018, 07:54 PM | #1557 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Quote:
*** Not the best look here. |
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08-20-2018, 07:56 PM | #1558 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Last one for now.
Quote:
*** Even by my standards you're quiet, then you immediately vote based off a single post that you don't “like,” absent any analysis? And on a wagon gaining momentum? Man, I'm not feeling the Prec vibe anymore. |
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08-20-2018, 07:59 PM | #1559 | |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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08-20-2018, 08:01 PM | #1560 |
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
the two wolf tells from your bullet-time game is that you were robotic and that your posts were disjoint from the rest of the action in the game and you didn't really engage with others that much
I have you as town atm bc you seem less roboto but as I said you're going to be held to a higher standard w/r/t interacting in real-time |
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