TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

[Afrobean]

id rather just vote for manti

My guess is that manti and dev are in cahoots. Wouldn't be too surprised if a2p is in on it as well given his vote, but when manti is the only one out of the three with a vote on him yet, he seems like the best choice for me now.

I guess they decided that I'd be unwolfable because of the guardian, so they decided to teamup during the day to down me early on.

ps a2p, eat me. You know well that you haven't done anything solid to attack and my suspicion on you right now is rooted firmly in gut. What the **** am I supposed to attack you with? Simply by pointing out that you're attacking a night 1 joke? I shouldn't even need to point this out!

[A2P]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I guess they decided that I'd be unwolfable because of the guardian, so they decided to teamup during the day to down me early on.

Ok Afro. Act high and mighty for no apparent reason at all. "The wolves won't even dare to attack me because I'm a wolf I MEAN THE GUARDIAN WILL GUARD ME SOLELY BECAUSE IM AFRO HEH!"

That's all I'm getting from that.

[devonin]

If they decided you were unwolfable because you'd be guarded, then -any- other target would have been unguarded, and they woudln't have overcompensated "so far" as to make a stupid choice.

I think I know why you knew you weren't going to get wolfed.

[devonin]

I knew as soon as I started pointing out that I had issues with Afro's logic, that he would eventually decide to accuse me of being a wolf because of it. The speed with which he accused me, instead of using his position as a skilled veteren player of the game to help out the new guy would show me how likely it was he would be a wolf.

If Freaky was "his lynch" choice for day phase, surely he woudln't wolf him, since as he put it, he could get basically anybody lynched. He told me that the game was all about pursuading, and he's pretty good at pursuading people to lynch who he wants.

He's stuck acting over-analytical even as a wolf, because he's established himself in that style as a human, so with less useful info to go on (Being a wolf, he can't exactly do his legitimate best to ID wolves") he had to resort to poorer than usual reasoning.

When I acted like I always have and always will, pointing out flaws in logic where I see them, I became a threat to his ability to convince people to follow suit with his predictions, and so I became the target.

I like how he's decided that Manti and A2P and I are in cahoots, when I haven't even spoken to either of them this entire game, but he's Afro, he needs to set up his "You guys are wolves" team as soon as he can to stay in character. The fact that it's Manti (And Manti survived night 1, so he knows at least -some- people are already inclined to be suspicious of him) and it's me (Because I threaten his ability to influence lynches by pointing out his flawed logic, I guess it's just good luck for him that so far one and only one other person voted against him, to set up his imaginary wolves team.

Afro

[u84]

Afro, although I completely agree with you on the fact that the chances of the wolves' pick for Night 1, I also have to agree with Devonin in saying that there is also a great chance that the wolves had very good reason to decide on freaky. It is very possible that Freaky slipped up being the Guardian to one of the wolves or that one of the wolves slipped up their role to him. We have no way to know whether the killing of Freaky had some justification to it or if it really was just a stupid choice.

However, if it was that Freaky slipped up and revealed being a Guardian, he is a smart player and would have realized this slip-up. There's no way he would just give up after that. So I'm hoping that if Freaky told someone, just in case he died, who it was he slipped up to, that they present that information so we can lynch that wolf. On the same note, it's very unlikely that Freaky wouldn't present his case against a wolf who slipped up to him before he died to ensure at least one wolf's death before he died.

So, unless we don't hear from someone with information on before Freaky's death, I'm going to assume that it was merely a stupid wolf choice.

TL;DR: The only logical reason Freaky would have been killed was if he was found to be a detriment to the wolf team and Freaky would have let someone else know if this were true before he died.

Too early to vote, yet, though..

[devonin]

But Afro is presenting Freaky as a "Totally way out there" kill choice. If he's smart enough to catch a slip, and pass knowledge along so as to ensure another wolf dies with him, surely he's smart enough that he's a more reasonably choice than the "Stupid choice" afro presents it as?

IE. Afro is presenting the choice as a horrible one because it a) distances himself from the decision [making him look not like a wolf] and b) lets him leap onto anybody (like you yourself just did, and like Manti and I did) who says it -wasn't- a stupid decision to accuse them of being wolves [making him look not like a wolf]

All solid decisions for a skilled wolf to be making.

[Temote]

Was Freaky being wolfed really that big of a deal? I've kinda been figuring that him being wolfed would make any vet player a potential wolf, since they're all in agreement of not wanting to wolf each other on the first night. Afro's said it, Manti's said it, Fic's said it, etc. Outside of that, I really can't figure out how you guys are coming to the conclusions you are. x_x

Oh, also:

(11:51:02 PM) emerald3x0: so, who will you wolf tonight?
(11:51:19 PM) sumote: If I weren't a human?
(11:51:26 PM) sumote: I'd probably shoot for freaky. XD
(11:51:37 PM) emerald3x0: rofl
(11:51:39 PM) emerald3x0: why him?
(11:51:55 PM) sumote: Because I never pick the heavy players night one. =3
(11:52:25 PM) emerald3x0: are you subtly implying freaky isn't fat?
(11:52:57 PM) sumote: Would that mean I'm subtly implying Dev and Manti are, too? x_x
(11:53:10 PM) emerald3x0: Dev?
(11:53:18 PM) emerald3x0: what does he have to do in it?
(11:53:29 PM) sumote: Dev is one of the people I wanna see play. XD
(11:53:43 PM) emerald3x0: you never played with him?
(11:53:45 PM) sumote: Nope
(11:54:05 PM) sumote: And the only game I saw him play in, he pretty much gave up. x_x

Freaky was always a viable pick for a night one target. If not me, I could even draw the line that Emerald could have used that to put suspicion on me (although I highly doubt it). It all depends on the style of the people behind everything. Likewise, players that are known to be more useful are rarely night one targets unless specific people are wolves (like freaky or ac).

Incidentally, I'd have also shot for Emerald, Gun, Vic, or Freeze. I tend to make a list of night one prospects before I even look at my role PM, since that gives me a jump on having some ideas, as well as a jump of 'if this person dies, maybe the wolves think like I do'. Along that train of thought, I'd say that the players that have similar lines of thought as me would be Manti, u84, maybe tupa.

But meh, just trying to get an actual post here. Now to wait for Afro.

P.S. Dev. 'Persuade', not 'Pursuade'. =P
P.P.S I never vote until after the 24 hour mark unless there's a red seering (which can't happen this game), so don't draw any conclusions from me not taking a side, Afro.

[Temote]

I probably messed that up all to hell. Oh well.

[Temote]

Being on FFR is setting off my virus protection. What the hell. >=(

[devonin]

(11:54:05 PM) sumote: And the only game I saw him play in, he pretty much gave up. x_x

Lito sent wolf-talk to a human by accident, and everyone piled onto lynching me...there wasn't any giving up involved.

[Temote]

"I'm sorry guys, I can't play a liar's game."

It sounded a lot like giving up to me. x_x

[FictionJunction]

hi guys, let's resume.

Even if dev wouldn't have been convinced to lynch freaky had he survived day1 chances are that a campaign against freaky, successful or not, would have started. There was enough incentive there to look into him further.

I feel I can't make a solid decision but I'll vote arfo.

[Temote]

Hey guys, sudden problem.

The screen on my laptop died last night, and it's now completely out of commision, so I've gotta drop out. >=(

Sooo... not sure if this would count for a sub (although I know we aren't allowing them, but this isn't really an activity issue and there's bound to be someone who wants to play (like Panda or Spyke) that can be active in my place) or if I just need to be killed off. XD

Postin' from family computer, by the way.

...And no, I'm not going to miraculously get it back. <_< I dismantled the damn thing since this is about the fifth problem it's decided to give me. Just gonna save up and get a new one.

Anyway, game continue, and I'll let Syhto decide what to do.

[Temote]

Also, this means I don't have the Live TWG logs from last night. ;_;

[devonin]

Pretty sure it means that you're dead. I hope you were a wolf?

[Afrobean]

Syhto, assuming FFR doesn't go down again and you are able to see this post, you need to come up with a new deadline for day 1.

Originally Posted by Temote

"I'm sorry guys, I can't play a liar's game."

It sounded a lot like giving up to me. x_x

lol

And it's only a "liar's game" from the wolf's perspective. The green angle involves absolutely zero lying on the surface.

Originally Posted by devonin

If they decided you were unwolfable because you'd be guarded, then -any- other target would have been unguarded, and they woudln't have overcompensated "so far" as to make a stupid choice.

Guardian existing protects not only the one they guard but everyone else they MIGHT guard.

Come on, Dev, I know you're not stupid.

ps fiction and a2p are definitely wolves. Not 100% on devonin or manti, but I know they're both smarter than this, so I'm inclined to believe their motives for wanting me dead may well be malignant.

[Viccica]

I'm noticing your wolf list changing a lot, afro... <.<

I'd still like to stick with Manti as it stands right now, though.





A sidenote: I haven't seen gun on AIM at all.

[Afrobean]

I'm noticing your wolf list changing a lot, afro...

You should be worried if it DOESN'T change at all. If my suspects don't change at all through the game as new things happen, odds are I'm a wolf that game.

The reason I'm so confident about fiction and a2p are because of subtle things posted on another forum, about their disappointment in the game coming to a halt. Greens are rarely as "into" the game as they seemed to be, especially fiction who had been rather passive in the game up until then, but came back just in time to vote to lynch me when the site came back up yesterday. A2P was present on my list before because of gut, and Fiction fits the mold of the "make a bad kill on purpose" concept.

But seriously, come on, ****ers, you really think killing me day 1 is the best option? I have a better track record than most for catching wolves alone, and you think I'm the best day 1 lynch?

You know what? I'm willing to admit that it's possible I'm a wolf. I could have absolutely intentionally made a bad kill choice during night 1 for the fun of it, just like fiction. In this particular case, my "bad kill" would have been probably someone else so that I could get 2 kills for the price of one, but that's beside the point.

BUT

The statistical likelihood of me being a wolf is less than 1/4. If I'm a wolf, you can always lynch me on a later day and no real harm comes from it (unless you fear my single vote).

If I'm human, I'll help you find wolves, something that not many of you ****s could boast in a game with "no" blues.

It is ****ing stupid to kill me day 1. It'd be like lynching Manti day 1 in a game with 6 blues in it, all because he said "I'd never kill the person who died night 1" Like REALLY. I was going to push hard to get this kid lynched, it'd be completely retarded to shoot myself in the foot. Why give myself one kill when I could have two instead? Dev says he doesn't believe I could lead a lynch against freaky, but the rest of you, think about it honestly. You really think I couldn't have gotten freaky lynched? You really think I didn't think I could get it done? It wouldn't have even taken much work since a couple dudes were already agreeing with me during night 1.

But this kind of game... This is the **** where I thrive. And considering how many votes on me, there is at least one human out there who thinks I should die day 1? Seriously. What?

[Afrobean]

Also: gun was online yesterday. Signed off a little after midnight. I could pull out my system log and get more detailed info, but suffice to say, he HAS been on aim lately.

[Gun92]

Yeah, that's my fault. I've had an over load of work lately, getting ready for next week and all but Ill try and get on aim after work or sometime tonight, I will make time, I promise.